Statto's Corner

[DazTheSlug]

I'll start the ball rolling with a database query result out of my fell race results

My Top 10 Position-Percentage Races:
Race Area M ft ft/M cat pos field pos%
Whaley Waltz - Peak District – NW 5.8 1050 181 BS 98 181 54.1
Vanessa Chappell - Peak District – NW 5.6 1350 241 BS 98 174 56.3
Lantern Pike - Peak District – NW 5 1050 210 BS 146 239 61.1
Bollington Festival Three Peaks - Peak District – NW 5.6 1200 214 BS 80 130 61.5
Kinder Downfall - Peak District – NW 9.7 2000 206 AM 172 268 64.2
Rainow - Peak District – NW 5.2 850 163 BS 91 136 66.9
Rivington Pike - Pennines – West 3 760 253 BS 140 206 68.0
Black Rocks - Peak District – SE 5.9 950 161 BS 72 101 71.3
Shining Tor - Peak District – NW 6.5 1600 246 AS 127 172 73.8
Ras Beca - Wales – South 5 1050 210 BS 68 91 74.7

we see that I have finished in the top 70% in only 7 races
I have not (yet) finished in the top half
nine of the ten are short races
the one notable exception is my performance at Kinder Downfall on Sunday (which prompted this query)

(and yes, I am bored at work)

[L.F.F.]

Blimey. I look at this forum to relax. That's just sent my head spinning!

[dominion]

It's 693 days since I last raced, which equates to 4.377% of my life.

[DazTheSlug]

It's 693 days since I last raced, which equates to 4.377% of my life.

you should force yourself :wink:
does this mean the Cat&Fiddle relay will be your comeback race?

[dominion]

you should force yourself :wink:
does this mean the Cat&Fiddle relay will be your comeback race?

That's my current thinking.

[superflyguy]

loving the stats Daz!

but can't really draw any meaningful conclusions as the sample size is too small. get the four inns in there, you must have finished in the top 50%. Unless of course you are only including FRA races.

the only thing i could tentativley draw out is that you seem to place better in larger fields

[DazTheSlug]

oh I've got plenty more data than just ten races (you don't want to get me started)
I don't include LDWA type events as some of the field walk them
as well as being short distance races, most of the "other nine" are CatB rather than CatA
I have concluded that I am best suited to shorter, more undulating rather than steep races (not based solely on Pos%, but also other metrics)
they're all May to September jobbies as well
several of them being run off shows/festivals/carnivals etc
these fair-weather "event" races I conclude to be a "softer target" i.e. containing a greater proportion of the field who are perhaps only occasional fell racers
date wasn't listed but I can reveal 8 were registered in 2010 and only 1 in 2009, i.e. things are improving
the Kinder Downfall result is therefore pointing the way to happy hunting in 2011's shorter races such as Rivi Pike and Rainow (I won't be doing WhaleyWaltz, VanessaChappell or BollyFestival this year)

[dominion]

All good stats need a graph?



I've no idea what this means,but if it's a race profile it looks fecking hard!

[ba-ba]

Put that in a bar-graph and you're laughing!
or T-test it, see if your results are statistically significant!

I have a spreadsheet of races but compare times to previous years, not positions - mainly use it so I can easily find out what tie I should be running this year.
I should probably compare time as a % of the winners

[DazTheSlug]

Thanks for the graph dom - does actually look like the profile of Bolly Festival 3 Peaks!

tbh I don't focus so much on Pos%, cos it's largely dependent on how much of a "soft tail" there is to the field
I'm just wanting to finish in the top half at some point (this year!)

my main metric is something I have christened "WTCAG" or Winner's Time Comparison (Age-Graded)
which is actually a misnomer cos I don't compare to the actual winner
my reasoning is that if there may be a "super-elite" winner to some races which will make the comparison non-standard
what I do is neglect the top 10% or so of the results, then look for the next finisher in my age category, then compare to that time, which I figure is equivalent to that of a "top club runner", of which there will be plenty at every race
when I first started fell racing 4 years ago my WTCAG was typically around 155% whereas I now expect 130% or lower
maybe I'll treat you all to a colour-coded scatter graph of my WTCAG data :w00t: