Future of World Powers

[Roy Scott]

Recently got back from a trip to Berlin. One museum we visited exibited the history of DDR before the wall fell. As I was wondering around it got me thinking that essentially the control and governance is very similar to current world powers such as China. As the story of the DDR unfolds you can't help thinking that the end was inevitable and the people would get their way as the world progressed and modernised. I cant help but think that maybe China will eventually circum to the same conclusion. In opening commerce and international business they can not help but be influenced by the rest of the world unlike absolute goverment control and surveillance like North Korea.

Thoughts?

[Witton Park]

Recently got back from a trip to Berlin. One museum we visited exibited the history of DDR before the wall fell. As I was wondering around it got me thinking that essentially the control and governance is very similar to current world powers such as China. As the story of the DDR unfolds you can't help thinking that the end was inevitable and the people would get their way as the world progressed and modernised. I cant help but think that maybe China will eventually circum to the same conclusion. In opening commerce and international business they can not help but be influenced by the rest of the world unlike absolute goverment control and surveillance like North Korea.

Thoughts?

I think that the way of government is more likely to change in teh west before it does in China.

The Chinese people seem to be more comfortable with firm government and they are delivering growth every year and look like that will continue for the foreseeable future.

Do you think Europe will accept 20 years of stagnation? I don't.

The balance of power is changing.

[Derby Tup]

I've been to China four times in the last couple of years and travel around other parts of Asia regularly too. One interesting change even in the last two years is that business news used to be about Europe investing in China and now it's all about China investing in other parts of the world. A lot of young (say, under 40) people in China have only really known growth in their economy and have done very well for themselves in recent years. My feeling is they're more interested in making money than discussing or getting involved in politics

[Roy Scott]

Yes, the balance of power is changing and do not see that changing, but China has to go through the same stages of economic development as everone else did over a centry ago.

I dont agree that the Chinese are more comfortable with firm govermance. Continuous propoganda and control has given rise to a generation that perceive to be, however it is hardly as if we get to see freedom of expression and thought. With the rise of shared information I dont think the control of the current goverment is sustainable, the people will win out in the end.

Europe may have to make do with stagnation to be honest, as too many emerging/re-emerging markets are competing for the same services.

[daz h]

Chinas problem isnt growth. Its the inflation that comes with it. This if not controlled leads to high prices, unrest, problems to curb it.The only way they can control inflation is to control the growth.It aint rocket science.They have only been an open shop for ten minutes. The growth level they have seen is simply not possible long term.

[Roy Scott]

Thats a good point DT and obviously you have alot more first hand experience of what is happening. However initially the DDR did well, economically and people tend to turn more political when the bubble bursts (and we all know that ever bubble has to burst eventually).

[TheHeathens]

Chinas problem isnt growth. Its the inflation that comes with it. This if not controlled leads to high prices, unrest, problems to curb it.The only way they can control inflation is to control the growth.It aint rocket science.They have only been an open shop for ten minutes. The growth level they have seen is simply not possible long term.

Agreed. There will be another huge property bubble / crisis within the next decade but this one will originate in China, not the West.

[Dynamo Dan]

The other thing to bear in mind is how exposed their economy is to the dollar. They hold a vast amount of dollars in their foreign exchange reserve.

In many ways the fortunes of China and the US are intrinsically linked.

[mr brightside]

You can't argue with regimes that produce cars like this.

[Roy Scott]

The other thing to bear in mind is how exposed their economy is to the dollar. They hold a vast amount of dollars in their foreign exchange reserve.

In many ways the fortunes of China and the US are intrinsically linked.

This was a clever move on the part of China after seeing other Asian countries left hung high and dry following initial US investment in the 80's and 90's. I think as China continues to grow this trend will reverse with the Renminbi becoming the new safe haven for investment.