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  1. #591
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    I knew I was not getting the truth, so more information was not the way forward for me: I thought I should "vote safe". Given that Brexit involves more possible outcomes than there are particles in the known universe it does amaze me that people are willing to accept so many unknowns - but there are the "anything is better than this" and "at least if we lose out financially we will be in control" arguments which I cannot refute.

    As I have said before, with natural wastage, it will not be long before "In" outnumber "Out" - with binary decisions like this I do not believe the usual drift to the right with age will occur.

    It will not affect me in a big way, as long as I remain healthy, but of course that will not last for ever. I do worry about staffing the NHS. And I would prefer not to have to pay for a visa to visit Europe if it comes to that.
    Last edited by Mike T; 19-03-2017 at 02:35 PM.

  2. #592
    Master shaunaneto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    So do you agree that they should hold a referendum when there is an appetite among the Scottish electorate to have one, rather than calling for one when there isn't?
    There's a reasonable chance a second referendum would result in the union being dissolved. It's not really a question of does the Scottish electorate want a second referendum, it's a question of when.

    The independence movement will demand this before it's too late and Scotland is dragged out of the EU before it can arrange some sort of transition deal.

    The unionist will demand we wait until we know more about what the deal with the EU will be so we know what we are voting for.

    There's very little love for Westminster Tories in Scotland, or for Brexit. And the fact that the English electorate keeps voting for these things is slowly but surely driving Scotland out of the union. Amongst peers at least, it used to be more about a grievance with Westminster, but following Brexit and the fairly ugly perceptions of why people voted for it, there is an increased grievance with the English electorate itself. Including those that would have been viewed as traditionally close such as the labour heartlands, particularly in the north of England. That's a very limited peer group in the grand scheme of things, so take that with a pinch if salt.

    Honestly, looking at the divergence of what both countries want to be (and solely looking at the positive elements). Both countries would in my opinion, in the long run benefit from the end of the union. Of course, that would involve both countries not behaving like complete bell ends!
    pies

  3. #593
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    Given that Brexit involves more possible outcomes than there are particles in the known universe
    But it doesn't.

    Having voted leave, there are 3 possible outcomes.

    1. We Leave with a plan something like Theresa May has outlined.

    2. The EU do not want to work out a deal and so we revert to a WTO system.

    3. The EU surprise us with a deal to try and encourage us to stay in the Internal Market and/or the Customs Union.

    No one seems to consider point 3.

    The MPs and other advocates of Remain talk as if it is the May deal (which they don't like) or a "cliff edge" of WTO.

    But the Government has looked at some of the initial noises coming out of the EU and they were certainly indignant that the UK were discussing staying in the Internal Market despite leaving the EU.
    The EU might want us in, particularly the Customs Union.

    When the UK leaves the EU it loses close to 20% of it's GDP. That has consequences for some of the trade deals it has signed, particularly for agriculture.
    It also loses it's 2nd biggest contributor to the budget.

    So they may offer us something we aren't expecting.

    My preference is for No2. I'd accept No1 as I think it would have wider appeal across the population and so settle the country down again.

    No3 I doubt will happen, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
    Richard Taylor
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  4. #594
    Master Muddy Retriever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    it does amaze me that people are willing to accept so many unknowns
    I get the impression that you think the only way it would have been feasible to leave, would have been if the EU had told us in advance exactly what our trade relationship would be with them on our exit. Since this would never happen it would therefore be impossible for us to ever leave. No matter how many decisions are made for us by people we haven't elected and can't remove we would be stuck in the EU for ever.

  5. #595
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunaneto View Post
    There's a reasonable chance a second referendum would result in the union being dissolved. It's not really a question of does the Scottish electorate want a second referendum, it's a question of when.
    I agree that there will be another referendum at some point and if the vote then is for independence then so be it but the timing is relevant because the SNP are demanding that it be held next year even though there is no appetite for it with the majority of Scottish people. The last one was held only two and a half years ago and at the time the SNP said it was a once in a generation opportunity. Before the first referendum in the Edinburgh agreement both sides agreed to respect the result.

    Of course they say that everything has changed because of Brexit. But the possibility of that was known at the time. Cameron had pledged there would be a referendum on the EU before the end of 2017 if the Tories won the 2015 general election. Also, the SNP had published a white paper called "Scotland's future", which said "If we remain part of the UK, a referendum on future British membership of the EU could see Scotland taken out of the EU against the wishes of the people of Scotland.” But despite this the vote was still no in 2014.

    There's very little love for Westminster Tories in Scotland, or for Brexit.
    True but since the 2015 election and the Brexit vote opinion hasn't shifted in favour of independence. Interestingly it is estimated that 400,000 independence supporters voted for Brexit. So perhaps while the idea of independence is being viewed more favourably by Scottish remainers who voted to stay in the union last time, it is losing traction among eurosceptic Scots who previously voted yes for independence.

  6. #596
    Master shaunaneto's Avatar
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    There's a tactic behind the SNPs demands. As either you give them a referendum or your denying Scotland it's democratic rights.

    The once in a lifetime thing is countered by the 'no campaign' being sold with staying in the UK being the best option for staying in the EU. And, well.... that's why i posted on the subject in this thread.

    As to winning a referendum, the pro independence movement is going to have to do a better economic argument than last time. Time will tell on that front.

  7. #597
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunaneto View Post
    As to winning a referendum, the pro independence movement is going to have to do a better economic argument than last time. Time will tell on that front.
    To me this is a test of political ability. If May's a half-decent politician she will kick this into the long grass.
    No longer "resting"

  8. #598
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    The SNP complained about misinformation around the original indiref.

    They then complain about it at the EU ref.

    There was quite a lot about and of course they will deny that any of it was from them

    But if you take them at face value then I would look at this sort of timeline.

    1. Article 50 end March 2017.
    2. Updates on limited progress up to the end of 2018.
    3. Final 3 months of the two year period and the EU and UK agree to a FTA in principle and apply to the WTO for interim arrangements for 2-3 years to allow the detail to be sorted.
    4. We continue to trade with the EU under our current arrangements until around 2021.
    5. FTA agreed with mutual financial passporting rights, freedom of movement for all EU citizens in UK, reciprocated in EU subject to personal Health Cover and restrictions on claiming benefits abroad.

    In this scenario, it would be during the 2019-2021/2 interim period that the Scottish people may start to find out the shape of the deal, not just with regards to the UK, but also which of the repatriated powers will be devolved down to the assemblies.
    Also any potential new bi-lateral deals will start to be discussed.

    In this scenario, there is no information there for the Scottish people to use to make a reasoned judgement.

    It is the most likely scenario, so to plan Indiref2 now smacks of panic.

    A party's popularity is cyclical. The SNP has had a good run. They got 46.5% at the last Scottish Parliamentary election.
    That is up 1% on the previous time.
    They haven't really got any higher to go.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
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  9. #599
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    But it doesn't.

    Having voted leave, there are 3 possible outcomes.

    1. We Leave with a plan something like Theresa May has outlined.

    2. The EU do not want to work out a deal and so we revert to a WTO system.

    3. The EU surprise us with a deal to try and encourage us to stay in the Internal Market and/or the Customs Union.

    No one seems to consider point 3.

    The MPs and other advocates of Remain talk as if it is the May deal (which they don't like) or a "cliff edge" of WTO.

    But the Government has looked at some of the initial noises coming out of the EU and they were certainly indignant that the UK were discussing staying in the Internal Market despite leaving the EU.
    The EU might want us in, particularly the Customs Union.

    When the UK leaves the EU it loses close to 20% of it's GDP. That has consequences for some of the trade deals it has signed, particularly for agriculture.
    It also loses it's 2nd biggest contributor to the budget.

    So they may offer us something we aren't expecting.

    My preference is for No2. I'd accept No1 as I think it would have wider appeal across the population and so settle the country down again.

    No3 I doubt will happen, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
    I am talking about the details - and the innumerable combinations thereof - lets say for the sake of argument there are 1,000 different areas that will need addressing - there will be far more - and that for each area there are only 10 solutions - then the number of possible combinations is 10 to the power of 1000 - a pretty big number!

  10. #600
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    I worry for you Mike
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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