Interesting analysis of Northers v Mids v Southerns: Which race is strongest and what your position suggests you'll get in the National: (Will Mycroft, the person who has done the analysis, is an acquaintance here in Sheffield. Pretty sure he's meant to have finished his PhD now but maybe doing stuff like this)

So 100th at Northerns puts me at 251st come Parliament hill - which closely matches my National result last year (253rd, last year my northerns result of ~125th was skewed by illness).
This year I'm hoping 3 weeks of more directed training (i.e. less time fell bashing for the moment) will help me swing keep moving in the 'right' direction, beating the formula to trouble to top 200. We shall see.