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Thread: 2017 summary

  1. #11
    Master Bob's Avatar
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    OK, my SQL-fu was strong this evening, here's the 2017 successes grouped by month

    April 7
    May 22
    June 41
    July 31
    August 8
    September 4
    November 1
    December 1

    Here's the successful rounds grouped by hours, the first number on the right hand side is the total, if there's a figure in parentheses then that's the ladies.
    14 => 1
    15 => 1
    17 => 2 (1)
    18 => 1
    19 => 1 (1)
    20 => 4 (1)
    21 => 23 (1)
    22 => 29 (4)
    23 => 53 (5)
    Last edited by Bob; 30-01-2018 at 08:52 AM.
    Bob

    http://bobwightman.co.uk/run/bob_graham.php

    Without me you'd be one place nearer the back

  2. #12
    Super Moderator Derby Tup's Avatar
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    Good to see a large majority enjoying their day and not using the BG as a time trial 😉

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Derby Tup View Post
    Good to see a large majority enjoying their day and not using the BG as a time trial 😉
    I finished in 23.59, so I got the best value from the day :-)

  4. #14
    Super Moderator Derby Tup's Avatar
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    Top man!

  5. #15
    Master ba-ba's Avatar
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    Hmm, maybe june/early July were OK, but 22nd July was very wet both below and above ankles, for the first 3 legs anyway)). Didn't stop 2 19h rounds though (Andy Swift and Sally Fawcett)

  6. #16
    Senior Member Steve Chilton's Avatar
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    I have updated a graph I produced (for a talk a while ago) with latest figures (from Bob). Shows actuals, trend line and 6-yr moving mean. Shows clear upsurge after recovery from foot-and-mouth year (which had 5 quieter years beforehand too). Previous peaks were 93 (in 2011) and 79 (in 1989). BGRcompletions.JPG

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Chilton View Post
    I have updated a graph I produced (for a talk a while ago) with latest figures (from Bob). Shows actuals, trend line and 6-yr moving mean. Shows clear upsurge after recovery from foot-and-mouth year (which had 5 quieter years beforehand too). Previous peaks were 93 (in 2011) and 79 (in 1989). BGRcompletions.JPG
    Fascinating. Steady rise until 1990, but then a decline until 2000, i.e. before foot-and-mouth. So what explains that?

    Steep rise after foot-and-mouth, no doubt partly due to Feet in the Clouds. But then it started declining again -- until someone published The Round.
    In his lifetime he suffered from unreality, as do so many Englishmen.
    Jorge Luis Borges

  8. #18
    Master that_fjell_guy's Avatar
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    I think it was 'The Round' that perked my interest tbh!....still to seriously train or attempt it though!
    I M Povey New Marske Harriers
    http://manwithoutashed.blogspot.com

  9. #19
    Master ba-ba's Avatar
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    In the last few years there has been more awareness partly due to social media. Killian going on about it (if not actually doing it), chat from trailrunning mag and the like. Be interesting to know what the failure rate has been over the years though doubt confirmed starts aren't all logged if unsuccessful.

  10. #20
    Master Bob's Avatar
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    Currently the success rate is just under 50%, I don't think it's been over 50% for a given year. I don't have data from before I took over from Brian as Membership secretary and moved things from paper to electronic format.

    The data I have for each year:
    > Number of registrations
    > Number of successes
    > Number of previous attempts.

    Registrations is pretty easy. One registration per person per calendar year. The only fly in this ointment are those who do the round without having registered but I can add them post-round so they do get counted.
    Basically failures include: not actually starting due to injury, illness, life; an actual attempt that made it some way round; completed rounds outside the 24hr limit.
    Number of previous attempts is down to the individual as to how they define an attempt: a previous registration? Just setting off? Making it to Dunmail or Wasdale?

    The awkward part comes when someone makes an attempt, fails for one of the above reasons, then has another attempt and succeeds in the same year. Does that get added to both failures and successes or just successes as at present? I made two attempts in one year, is that two failures or one? Given that some people get their gender wrong(!) having very simple forms is a requirement so adding something like "Number of previous attempts this year" is a recipe for confusion.*

    What's apparent from the number of previous attempts is that few people make multiple attempts if they don't succeed on their first go. Again I don't know if someone makes multiple attempts but never succeeds. I do pester people for an update about a month after the date of their registered attempt (actually it might be up to two months depending on whether their attempt is at the start or end of a month), this despite a request in the confirmation email to let me know how they get on so that I don't have to pester them. Even so, at the end of any given year there's about 20-25% of registered contenders who haven't let me know how they've got on. Brian Covell used to say that if you could, or thought you could, get your backside round the BG in 24hrs then filling in a form or letter/email shouldn't take a month! So all this isn't a modern thing.

    * On this subject, if anyone thinks that either the registration or ratification forms are confusing/misleading in any way then let me know and I'll look at making them better.
    Bob

    http://bobwightman.co.uk/run/bob_graham.php

    Without me you'd be one place nearer the back

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