This is going nowhere, there is so much conflicting information out there no matter what type of brexit/remain somebody wants, they can find "evidence" that justifies it.
"Que Será, Será
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This is going nowhere, there is so much conflicting information out there no matter what type of brexit/remain somebody wants, they can find "evidence" that justifies it.
"Que Será, Será
And that, Pat, neatly sums up the political impasse we find ourselves in!
David Cameron has been advising Theresa May on how to give MPs a "greater role" in resolving any future Brexit deadlock, sources have told the BBC.
Should we be even more worried?
The solution is simple. The Leave movement argued that we needed to leave the EU so that we could 'bring back control', and to ensure the British Parliament was wholly sovereign again. So let's just do that. Let's let Parliament vote now on the final implications/options of the advisory referendum result. Options currently on the table are: 'no-deal', 'May's deal', 'Stay' (sounds so much nicer than 'remain'). Doing exactly what Leave asked for. Who on earth could complain about that?:rolleyes:
What makes me cry is the way politicians scurry around scheming of doing everything but what the vote entails. They know full well that the only deal which fulfils the referendum result is leaving on WTO terms. Hey you can have any Brexit you want as long as it's Remain.:(
There is a solution to the Backstop and that is for the Republic of Ireland to leave the EU and join the UK. If they don't want to then that's fine, a hard line brexiteer prime minister will spell out the consequences to them if the EU sinks.
On the downside the Republic has huge public and private debt which would be a problem as we have enough of our own.
That's an interesting idea, CL. Of course, another solution is for Northern Ireland to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland. Recall that Northern Ireland is in the interesting position that the majority of the population voted Remain, while the political party with the most votes supports Leave; which is pretty much the opposite of the situation in England!Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
N.I is a case of where tactical voting goes horribly wrong. The unionist coalesce around one party, the DUP, inorder to avoid splitting the unionist vote thereby letting the republicans in. The nationalist do the same and vote sinn fein. So up there it is a case of the Alliance Party, SDLP, the relatively moderate UUP, plus other, minor parties are crowded out and replaced by the nutcase DUP, who belong in another century, and the extreme left-wing sinn fein. You have the crazy situation where the former terrorist are seen as the relativity moderate party.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
Stay has already been ruled out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
Any of the so-called Leave options being put forward need to be put to a few tests.
1. do they honour the referendum result and allow the UK to develop it's own independent trade policy, bring back law making to the UK and allow the UK to manage it's own migration policy.
2. is it doable.
Point 2 is quite important as those claiming EEA is the way to go, might not be able to negotiate it. It is a position only Norway holds as a non EU member and it is a status set up for nations anticipating joining, not leaving.
It would also require us joining EFTA first and our application to join EFTA may not be accepted.
One very important matter seems to have been overlooked in the current situation.
In the last week or two there has been lots of talk around Mrs May’s deal. Mrs May doesn’t have a deal.
Mrs May has a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and a Political Declaration (PD).
The WA is a legally binding treaty. The PD is nothing more than good intentions and worth diddly-squat.
FULL focus should be on the WA.
It matters not whether you are a fan of a regular FTA, Canada +, EEA, Norway + …. Or any combination of deals for the future.
If you sign up to the Withdrawal Agreement, choices for the UK will be limited entirely to terms that are acceptable to the EU, regardless of the shape of the Govt in place at the time.
The Withdrawal Agreement must be stopped in anything like it's current form.
Indeed! Why not separate London and all other areas in the UK that voted remain as well as NI? The point here is the Republic of Ireland have established a rule for their own country: to vote again on membership. If the UK leaves without a deal it could be very bad for The Republic. The Republic joining the UK would solve the border problem and to be quite frank I think the EU would prefer that. They wouldn't then take the blame for putting in a hard border.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
There is another issue as well. The UK is one of the biggest contributors to the EU budget. When we leave assuming we leave on WTO we'll no longer contribute to the EU. So what will happen to some of those countries who receive more than they put in? Are Germany, France and Italy going to pay more to subsidise those countries who have got used to these entitlements? Are they going to pay the UKs share? I wouldn't be so sure judging by France's riots.
Keep those bloody migrants out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-jobs-at-risk
Real gutter to all involved.
Pat come on.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
If some UK people are no longer able to take these jobs within the EU, either:
they will fill them with EU nationals and with their levels of unemployment it will be beneficial to them
or
they will arrange a system to allow UK national to work in the EU to fill these jobs.
If you ever venture to the Alps you'll see Aussies and Yanks working there - wonder how that works :rolleyes:
I am taking the piss, I imagine, in the greater scheeme of things, sorting out work visas for these type of jobs will be relatively simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Yeah, it was a classic "project fear" story!!😏
So we can look forward to the Republic of Ireland taking the commonsense option: instead of preparing to celebrate the 100th anniversary of independence from the UK, they will petition to rejoin the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
This will undoubtedly be followed by an outbreak of commonsense elsewhere in the world. The Estonians will eliminate the threat on their Eastern border by asking to join the Russian Federation. The Taiwanese will ask to join the economic superpower that is the People's Republic of China. I can really see no end to this sweetness and light. :p
😂
I was wondering where you was going with that!
I think the suggestion would be that Ireland considers leaving the EU to join with the UK as a free trade area, not as a United British Isles.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
Why would Ireland do that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
A quick Google
Also shown is each import country's percentage of total Irish exports.
United States: US$36.1 billion (26.8% of total Irish exports)
United Kingdom: $18.3 billion (13.5%)
Belgium: $15 billion (11.1%)
Germany: $10.8 billion (8%)
Switzerland: $7 billion (5.2%)
Netherlands: $6.7 billion (4.9%)
France: $5.9 billion (4.3%)
So you are suggesting Ireland turns its back on Europe inorder to stay close to the UK? As shown below the UK has a trade surplus with Ireland, wonder how that goes once all those lovely tarrifs kick in.
Another google "United Kingdom incurred the highest trade surpluses with the following countries:"
Switzerland: US$6.8 billion (country-specific trade surplus in 2017)
United Arab Emirates: $6.8 billion
Ireland: $6.4 billion
Hong Kong: $3.6 billion
Singapore: $3.3 billion
Saudi Arabia: $2.7 billion
Oman: $2.2 billion
South Korea: $2.1 billion
Qatar: $1 billion
Macedonia: $950 million
http://www.worldstopexports.com/unit...port-partners/
To avoid a hard border of course. Since according to you this cannot be avoided unless the UK (or at least Northern Ireland) and Ireland are in the same single market and customs union, it makes sense for Ireland to come out of the EU and be part of a customs union with the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Problem solved.
Not migrants Pat they are expats! 😀Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
It's a decision for Ireland to consider. I wasn't advocating it, merely pointing it out that I don't think the suggestion is a merger with the United Kingdom, just a trade alignment.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I wonder if anyone in Ireland has done any economic modelling for a post Brexit world.
I can quite imagine if the UK manages a successful Brexit, there will be an increase in those in Ireland considering Irexit and that may also be affected by any more meddling by the EU in Ireland's fiscal policy.
I guess that sums up the mindset difference between people who voted brexit and those like me (and 90% of the people of Ireland), who accept that it is far from a perfect institution but on balance the advantages considerably outweight the disadvantages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
One person's meddling is another person's order to adhere to the rules of the club.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...eals-1.3488112
Yes and it ain't good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
https://www.independent.ie/business/...-37643523.html
Not quite what I meant Pat. I was thinking more of 10 year forecasts based on 2-3 different scenarios as the Treasury has done.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Are you trying to tell me the Irish Government are relaxed about EU interference in their fiscal policy?Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...-tax-1.3238859
It doesn't seem that way.
The problem is with Lisbon, it gave the EU the opportunity to assume competencies and expand it's reach in a way previous treaties hadn't.
Hence we haven't seen a new treaty since.
In terms of the public support for the EU in Ireland if so many Irish eurosceptics have changed opinion, it just seems to show that the EU policy of playing tough, scaring others, is actually working.
Maybe it will help retain the other 27. Time will tell.
Have a good Xmas everyone :)
Does not take Einstein to work out that you probably voted Brexit, and it is obvious why, do don't really get what it is all about. The EU is a brutal capitalist organisation that is trying to improve the wealth of its citizens, by, being blunt, creating the environment for businesses to make more money. One of the most important aspects of that environment, is that it has to be a level playing field, in that companies in one country cannot undercut companies in another. Hence labour law and environment regulations, etc. are standardized. Imagine if a pharmaceutical company in Spain undercuts the prices of a competitor in Germany because the Spanish government are relaxed about them polluting their local river, while the German company pays a fortune handling its waste. In fact that is why Corbyn hates the EU, he wants the power to be able to subsidize/nationalise companies. Once again imagine how the German government would feel if their industry is loosing businesses to inferior UK ones because the UK government is supporting them. In fact that is currently happening with China.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Corporation tax rate, is another way counties can undercut each other and the EU are rightly pissed off with Ireland, but can do nothing about it because corporation tax is a national issue not an EU issue.
Vladimir Putin supports Brexit, which is a definitive indication that Brexit must be a really bad idea.
Divide and conquer.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
Trump is the same.
On the other hand Tony Blair really really wants to remain. As does Alistair Campbell. I find it amusing that the author of "the dodgy dossier" claims that Leave won on the back of a false prospectus.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
I bet you've just blown the minds of everyone on the forum ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
He just wants a like-minded Ally. Another country convinced the best way to get power in the world is to turn their back on Europe. Maybe Brexit will lead to a new era of Russian-UK collaboration.Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
Ah yes the Corbyn approach...English lambs being swallowed by the Russian bear.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
If you had been watching BBC2 on Wednesday, you would realise that Russian bears are really sweet and cuddly https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...es-1-episode-2 :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Actually that's how I like to see myself - but I am so often misunderstood!:)Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
That was exactly my point. Pat Barry thinks there is no solution but a hard border. So let's see the EU put one in. And let's see how that effects those tariffs that Pat is on about. After all The Republic has to use the UKs road network for much of it's supplies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Pat Barry posturing as some adherent of human rights is ridiculous. On the gay marriage thread he took a stand against the conscious choice of an Irish bakers to refuse to bake a cake. And then when he was given an equivalent scenario he couldn't see that they were the same.
Thank goodness the Supreme court has seen the sense that Mr Barry can't.
He also supplies huge amounts of gas to the EU's biggest supporter. That's right Germany. Based on that and what you typed above you must now consider the EU a really, really bad idea?Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
The only solution to Brexit is another vote, and then another one after that.
Sadly, 'best of three' will be the only real way to decide it.