Coronavirus

The impact of disease spread is made through the use of extraordinarily complex multivariate calculations. Obviously the data that feeds into those calculations will be different for different countries and cultures. It must be exasperating for those who are working their socks off to hear the comments and criticisms of ill informed individuals or media groups. But they are probably used to that.
Having said that, the disease modelling for FMD was not, with the benefit of hindsight, totally correct. Let's hope the science has progressed since then.
It's a cliche but best advice is keep calm and carry on....within the imposed restrictions.

I think this is well worth a read on the situation and special attention should be paid to item 4 when we read stuff in the press and on forums. Our approach is keep our heads down, take no risks, follow government advice and be sensible.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...00000134125352

Some might think so what, we are all going to get it anyway - but if we can slow it down, flatten the demand curve, there may be space on ITU when the time comes, and of course it gives scientists a chance to develop and test drugs/vaccine.

Let's look at Iran, population 83 million. It has been estimated that if they ignore Covid 19 restrictions there will be 4 million cases and 3.5 million deaths; if they partly cooperate there will be 300,000 cases and 110,00 deaths; if they fully cooperate, 120,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Yes - keep calm, carry on, but within the advised restrictions, which may of course change with time.

I get it wheeze. In my early incarnation I was a stochastic math modeller using such as extended kalman filters. I also heard from
My dept of health civil service contact they are even using google searches as an input.

They are also utterly stupid.
There is no means for reporting you have it, to cross check assumptions. and the symptoms are misleading so nobody really knows . So garbage, in garbage out is the old adage of computer modelling

This is not ebola with well defined symptoms and necessity of medical care.

It is easy to convince yourself models are right which is why not joining the euro , 2008 and Brexit economic forecasts were all utterly wrong.

I’m coming back to uk from
Portugal as we speak which records as only having 200 cases: none where we were. Except I’m aware of a dozen cases even amongst the small Group of people I interact.

They ,like the uk , have no means of reporting you have it , or any clear definition of what it is, so none did report it.

I’m certain I did have it. But both in the UK and here the agencies have told us not to contact health services. So all the figures are totally inevitably wrong.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

The impact of disease spread is made through the use of extraordinarily complex multivariate calculations. Obviously the data that feeds into those calculations will be different for different countries and cultures. It must be exasperating for those who are working their socks off to hear the comments and criticisms of ill informed individuals or media groups. But they are probably used to that.
Having said that, the disease modelling for FMD was not, with the benefit of hindsight, totally correct. Let's hope the science has progressed since then.
It's a cliche but best advice is keep calm and carry on....within the imposed restrictions.

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In that by the way is a silver lining. Potentially many have already had it and developed immunity, which case the death rates could be much lower than forecast.


I am highly critical of the lack of a website
To report suspected cases, or lack of instruction to polling companies to do any systemic symptom analysis.

So nobody knows and the figures are bllx

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Originally Posted by Oracle

Which comparisons are utter bllx , nobody is recording how many cases there are, so death rate stats are utterly meaningless, and the difference is how serious it is before anyone notices.

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Well you are obviously not vulnerable or 70 Oracle, so how old are you?

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Oracle, you remind me of Nessa!😂

You’ve got me there wheeze: absolutely no idea of to whom or to what you refer!

You're in need of some cultural refreshment!;)

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Originally Posted by Oracle

You’ve got me there wheeze: absolutely no idea of to whom or to what you refer!

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Barry Island Boyo

We are about to see a control group for do nothing.

Imran Khan says Pakistanis are so poor they simply can’t afford to lockdown and eat.

So do little or nothing may yet be tested in Pakistan.
Sadly in a destitute country the outcome is likely worse than rich countries.

Although I am inclined to believe put a firewall and lockdown on 70 plus and compromised, with quarantine and providing for them, then let it burn out in the lower risk population , might have been better than trashing the entire economy, not least because I think it is far more prevalent by orders of magnitude than suggested.

What I will say is the chief scientist / health have decided which way to go, and all should do what they decide.