Brexit

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Originally Posted by noel

You seem to want to paint a united front on this. But in reality there's clearly a difference of opinion among leavers about what type of brexit we should be pursuing and how to get there. Some would prefer a no-deal, some would prefer a deal, some would even prefer to be within the customs union, some would settle for a no-deal if the deal isn't what they think would be in our best interests (which is entirely understandable). And there's a lot of difference of opinion about what would constitute a deal that would be worth avoiding a no-deal.

There are also those who voted on the basis of what certain politicians told them was achievable, and who have changed their minds having seen that this isn't the case.

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As Wheeze has said, where do you get this from?

I haven't come across one Leaver who wants the Customs Union. The EU wants it. Some Remainers who are cracking on they want to leave now want it. probably as they see it as keeping us "rejoin ready".

But no leavers.

And then you talk about a deal. Mrs May doesn't have a deal. She's agreed a notice process in the form of a treaty that hands the EU all the future leverage for the negotiation of any deal, and makes it impossible for the UK to leave that process without the permission of the EU.

The EU has said, it will not put any meat on the bone of a deal, until we have signed off on the Withdrawal.

So we cannot leave with a deal, we can only leave with a view to discussing a deal, whilst handing the EU it's severance.

You do understand that don't you Noel?

Now in terms of leavers there is an almost unanimous united front.

We want to leave with preference for a FTA, but if that cannot be secured in a satisfactory way, yes we will accept leaving to WTO terms.

Just consider that the Brexit Party is polling at around 35% on a platform of just leaving. It could be at 40% by next week,

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

As Wheeze has said, where do you get this from?

I haven't come across one Leaver who wants the Customs Union. The EU wants it. Some Remainers who are cracking on they want to leave now want it. probably as they see it as keeping us "rejoin ready".

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I know people who do. I also know people who now think Brexit was oversold and wouldn't have backed it if they'd known the reality.

If there's so much consensus and as you point out both major parties are for Brexit, who do you think it hasn't been achieved? It seems to me that people are pulling in different directions and want different things out of Brexit. What's your take on it?

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Originally Posted by noel

I know people who do. I also know people who now think Brexit was oversold and wouldn't have backed it if they'd known the reality.

If there's so much consensus and as you point out both major parties are for Brexit, who do you think it hasn't been achieved? It seems to me that people are pulling in different directions and want different things out of Brexit. What's your take on it?

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I think we've covered that before - the people who have been in charge of the process are not leavers. They see Brexit as a mistake not an opportunity. So they are engaged in what they perceive as a damage limitation exercise. It was very telling when Guy Verhofstadt revealed that Olly Robbins had asked him for Belgium citizenship. I don't know if he was joking or not but even if it was it shows his mindset.

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Originally Posted by noel

I know people who do. I also know people who now think Brexit was oversold and wouldn't have backed it if they'd known the reality.

If there's so much consensus and as you point out both major parties are for Brexit, who do you think it hasn't been achieved? It seems to me that people are pulling in different directions and want different things out of Brexit. What's your take on it?

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Known the reality? We haven't got it yet?

and what Muddy said ;)

By the way, I don't think I've ever said both main parties were for Brexit. I have said they both claimed to be, in their manifestos at the last election for example, but its clear that out of their 550 ish MPs probably only 200 or so really are for Brexit and that is why it hasn't been achieved.

Yes she did, without shouting, and did brings things back to a panel discussion. This is in reply to CL post above!

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Originally Posted by noel

I know people who do. I also know people who now think Brexit was oversold and wouldn't have backed it if they'd known the reality.

If there's so much consensus and as you point out both major parties are for Brexit, who do you think it hasn't been achieved? It seems to me that people are pulling in different directions and want different things out of Brexit. What's your take on it?

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They certainly know the reality now, is just as we told them
Eu are a bunch of sh??ts! That pour money down drains,
More intent on expanding their own power than the wellbeing of citizens.

Nobody surely can now support EU , now they know how it behaves,
Remain was always oversold, since it has nothing to commend it, but costs a fortune.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

By the way, I don't think I've ever said both main parties were for Brexit. I have said they both claimed to be, in their manifestos at the last election for example, but its clear that out of their 550 ish MPs probably only 200 or so really are for Brexit and that is why it hasn't been achieved.

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Yes, I think that's true. If there had been a majority of MPs genuinely in favour of brexit we probably would have left without an agreement by now. Some will say we might have achieved a deal by now if that were the case, as we would have taken a harder line in the negotiations, but I'm not convinced about that.

Having said that, a majority of MPs did vote to invoke article 50, so they must have been up for Brexit on some level.

Still, we are where we are. It's still hard to see what's going to happen. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't be putting any bets on just yet.

Noel, I have no doubt that people have had second thoughts about this. I did too but have enjoined in this thread to examine that doubt and listen to the arguments. Over time I have been able to put my doubts to one side as it becomes clear that all this political prevarication is clearly designed to overturn the referendum result. It is despicable political chicanery. But no question, other people may well have changed their mind. Its inevitable.

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Originally Posted by noel

Some will say we might have achieved a deal by now if that were the case, as we would have taken a harder line in the negotiations, but I'm not convinced about that.

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Had Davis been allowed to proceed without interference from the start, I think we would have left.

The EU want access to our market, they want as frictionless trade as possible.

That's what we want.

They also want £39B.

If we could not have reached a full agreement by 29/3 then we would have left in to a WTO perhaps with an interim holding plan, left the £39b on the table and said, come on, let's see what we can work out.

I'm convinced the EU would have come to an arrangement, even if they waited until the current Commission was moved on.

[/QUOTE] Having said that, a majority of MPs did vote to invoke article 50, so they must have been up for Brexit on some level.
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Remember the Article 50 vote was in March 2017.

May then called a General Election and lost 13 seats.

That meant returning Remain MPs could actually create mischief knowing they could actually beat a minority Govt even with the DUP support, if only 10 or so Tories rebelled.

That's what happened.

The whole shit-show is down to May and her inner circle.

She conceded on the timetabling.
She called an election without consulting cabinet, when she'd insisted all along she wouldn't.
Worst manifesto since Foot - arguably worse.
Lost an almost 20% poll lead in 4 weeks.
She agreed to the Dec 2017 protocol which put the backstop in to place.
She brought in a backdoor white paper at Chequers.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

Noel, I have no doubt that people have had second thoughts about this. I did too but have enjoined in this thread to examine that doubt and listen to the arguments. Over time I have been able to put my doubts to one side as it becomes clear that all this political prevarication is clearly designed to overturn the referendum result. It is despicable political chicanery. But no question, other people may well have changed their mind. Its inevitable.

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but it cuts both ways. Some Remainers will now be leavers. Roughly the polling says not much has changed.