Originally Posted by
Muddy Retriever
If it did get to 500,000 then I imagine you would be right. This was the prediction of professor Neil Ferguson. But his model also predicted 40,000 deaths by the start of the May for Sweden (which didn't lockdown) and 96,000 by the start of June. I think their actual death figures currently stand at 5,766.
However, I agree on the need to act reasonably cautiously. I don't think we can just open it all up immediately to pre-virus levels as it will make it impossible to protect the vulnerable.
I think the local lockdowns are a blunt instrument at the moment. Instead of whole districts, it would be better if they could narrow it down to to the actual areas were the clusters are. I suspect that leafy Ilkley and Menston do not have the rates of the worst affected parts of Bradford.