Brexit

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

Of course that graph has nothing to do with undecided firming up their decision just before the vote.

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Yes, the most striking thing about the graph for me was the wide variance in poll results before the referendum (I think 95% confidence intervals for Leave and Remain would have a lot of overlap), whereas it all stabilised afterwards. It's now clearly in favour of Remain; on the other hand, if a People's Vote was announced, it would probably start oscillating wildly again . . .

Anyway, I'm off to check the local ditches to see if there is a dead Boris in any of them.

The most reliable polls are national elections / referenda.

Since 2014, the EU election where UKIP rattled the cages of the established parties, a clear leave majority has occurred at each GE, EU election or referendum.

But you can also check the recent polling trends.

When asked about a GE, the Tories and Brexit Party combined are reaching 50% so without an Ulster Unionists, or the 30% of SNP supporters that favour Brexit, there is a large rump of the electorate clearly still for leave and this is growing.

The actions of the MPs are only adding to the momentum and the polling is making them even more scared of calling a General Election.

YouGov on 18/10, when stripping out the "Don't Knows" 63% for Johnson's agreement, 37% against. Some of those against are "No Dealers".

I sense there's going to be a few twists, but ultimately the public will catch up with this lot.

The first past the post system is no way to judge overall popularity WP. The tories at their absolute best, when winning the 1983 election, had something like 42% of the popular vote but won effectively 66% of the seats in parliament. I could not vote for the tories for billions of years, given an eternal life time, in my constituency and I suspect that the conservatives would win every time. My vote in a general election means very little. Yeah this does work for labour too, like under Tony Blair, but the disproportional representation was wrong there too.

Boris is shit scared of a second referendum because he knows he’ll lose it. Labour on the other hand aren’t shit scared of an election (they want one once no deal is dead and buried). A delay to the election and hopefully a second referendum before a general election could be a ground zero point for the tories (which they’ll richly deserve) 😊

Sadly the bravado of labour cannot match the reality

Read Dan Hodges assessment in the Mail for a fair summary of where it is all at now.
Behind the brave face,Labour MPs are desparate. Corbyn is even more toxic on doorsteps than no deal brexit. Corbyns duplicity has managed to convince remainers he is for leave, and leavers that he is remain, he reaps what he sows. Nobody wants a marxist terrorist lover, many of his own Mps cannot countenance his becoming PM.

And Labour has a bigger problem than Tory. 70 percent of its seats are leave, 70 percent of the voters remain. If Corbyn backs a referendum, Ie remain, he will lose most of north england. The actions of labour MPs are now managing to piss off most of the EU minor states, for refusing even allowing the deal to vote, knowing they will lose it. The minor states have little to lose by not allowing extension.

Its true. The FPP system has problems, but like capitalism, until someone comes up with something better it must remain. PR leads to the same sort of indecision we see in such as spain. How many governments recentlY? it is why PR states are easy victim to brussels duplicity.

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Originally Posted by Stolly

The first past the post system is no way to judge overall popularity WP. The tories at their absolute best, when winning the 1983 election, had something like 42% of the popular vote but won effectively 66% of the seats in parliament. I could not vote for the tories for billions of years, given an eternal life time, in my constituency and I suspect that the conservatives would win every time. My vote in a general election means very little. Yeah this does work for labour too, like under Tony Blair, but the disproportional representation was wrong there too.

Boris is shit scared of a second referendum because he knows he’ll lose it. Labour on the other hand aren’t shit scared of an election (they want one once no deal is dead and buried). A delay to the election and hopefully a second referendum before a general election could be a ground zero point for the tories (which they’ll richly deserve) ��

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Oracle, I would not even wipe my ar3e with a disgusting rag like the Mail. Cant believe you'd quote someone from that!

I don’t read the mail. Never picked one up or looked online. I follow dan hodges on social media who is a freelance , and I read his recent article and hehas the ear of many mps. Not surprising considering who his mum is. He is critical of all sides from time to time:

but important is the feedback from labour mps - it is that that is worth reading, better still his social media posts not just the articlr

If Bercow refuses a straight vote on the deal which is outrageous to bar government business , but I think he might, and if a customs union amendment is filed I think Boris might just take the nuclear chance of forcing a general election based on the deal by calling confidence. The rest are unwilling to allow each other to be even temporary pm

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Originally Posted by Stolly

The first past the post system is no way to judge overall popularity WP. The tories at their absolute best, when winning the 1983 election, had something like 42% of the popular vote but won effectively 66% of the seats in parliament. I could not vote for the tories for billions of years, given an eternal life time, in my constituency and I suspect that the conservatives would win every time. My vote in a general election means very little. Yeah this does work for labour too, like under Tony Blair, but the disproportional representation was wrong there too.

Boris is shit scared of a second referendum because he knows he’ll lose it. Labour on the other hand aren’t shit scared of an election (they want one once no deal is dead and buried). A delay to the election and hopefully a second referendum before a general election could be a ground zero point for the tories (which they’ll richly deserve) ��

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There are a few issues here Stolly.

Firstly you dismiss my point because of your perceived flaws in FPTP. However the point I made referred to 3 other national electoral events which were not FPTP.
All 5 national electoral events have produced leave majorities.

I don't believe that Boris is shit-scared of a 2nd referendum because of the potential result. I believe he is concerned at the damage to the system such a referendum would have.
Firstly, what question?
You can see the Remainers are for a two option BRINO or Remain. Labour's as you know is for the softest of soft Brexits and Remain.
The intent to airbrush leave out of a 2nd referendum is quite sinister in my opinion.

You only need to look across at France and Spain to see the effects of political chicanery.
The Brits are rather more reserved it has to be said, but if you keep poking with that stick....

and then we have the recurring issue of what happens if Remain win a 2nd referendum 52/48 assuming Remain gets back on such a referendum?
Best of 3?
What type of Remain?
3 years of debate to see how we create a remain arrangement with the EU that respects the views of the 48?
After 3 years do we put the Remain "deal" to the electorate in a confirmatory referendum?
Would that 3rd confirmatory referendum have the options of "Remain Light" or No Deal?

and round and round we go.....

Finally (for now :D )you say that Labour want a General Election once no deal is dead and buried. You can't actually reach that point.
Assuming that Boris Johnson's deal passes, even with an amendment such as Labour are currently proposing for a Customs Union to be added as a preferred outcome. We leave, there's an election. The Tories or a Tory/Brexit Party coalition win. The previous issues are irrelevant as a Government with a majority can do more or less what they want for 5 years.

And that is why Labour are refusing a General Election. All polling suggests they will tank and the degree of their downfall only seems to look worse with each successive week's polling.

That is why, despite back in early September, the offer of a 15/10 General Election was declined. It could have delivered a Remain PM in to Downing Street before EU Council.

But they are shit-scared.

It looks more likely, that even if there is an extension, Labour will not go for a GE, but they will seek to lead a minority Govt.
In fact this weekend they have been discussing this very issue with the DUP.

Hansard 4/9
Patrick McLoughlin Chair, European Statutory Instruments Committee
"Does the Leader of the Opposition want a general election? A yes or no will suffice."

Jeremy Corbyn Leader of Her Majesty's Official Opposition, Leader of the Labour Party
"The right hon. Gentleman obviously did not hear what I just said. Before he gently interrupted me, I was about to point out that the offer of the election today is a bit like the offer of an apple to Snow White from the Wicked Queen, because what the Prime Minister is offering is not an apple or even an election, but the poison of a no deal. I repeat what I said last night. Let this Bill pass and gain Royal Assent, and then we will back an election"

As you can see, Corbyn promised a General Election twice. On the 3/9 to the Prime Minister. Again on the 4/9 here.

He wanted the Benn Act passed.
The Tories were planning to filibuster it in the Lords
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...k-no-deal-bill
but let it pass after the confirmation from Corbyn.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...tch-filibuster

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

Oracle, I would not even wipe my ar3e with a disgusting rag like the Mail. Cant believe you'd quote someone from that!

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Settle darn Wheeze, Oracle has explained about Mr Hodges and has made some good points.

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Originally Posted by Wheeze

Oracle, I would not even wipe my ar3e with a disgusting rag like the Mail. Cant believe you'd quote someone from that!

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I'm surprised at such an attack from you Wheeze. I've often had the cheap shot "Daily Mail Reader" accusation despite never having bought one, and only occasionally picked one up when free at an airport.

It's a free country. We should debate, disagree by all means, but attacks for the choice of which newspaper from a relatively poor choice isn't warranted.

Of course it's a free country WP. I was freely admitting my surprise that a well informed commentator would quote from such a dreadfully biased right wing rag. I would expressed similar surprise if someone quoted a source from the Daily Star. In my own view, it damages credibility. However, Oracle offered a good defence in saying it was Margaret Hodges son he was actually quoting. Fair enough.