Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Presumably because the fundamentals eg population density, societal behaviour...have not changed?

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I think so. If we knew that we were definitely going to get an effective vaccine in the next few months perhaps it would be worth suppressing the virus right down again and putting up with all the downsides that lockdown brings. But things appear to be looking rather gloomy on that front at the moment. Boris was asked about this by a Tory MP in the Commons yesterday and his reply didn't inspire much confidence.

"Alas, I can't give him a date by which I can promise confidently that we will have a vaccine. There are some very hopeful signs not least from the Oxford AstraZeneca trials that are being conducted. But, as he knows, Sars took place 18 years ago, we still don't have a vaccine for Sars.
I don't wish to depress him, but we must be realistic about this."There is a good chance of a vaccine, but it cannot be taken for granted."

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

And at what cost to livelihoods, mental health and other medical conditions?

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Ironically, while I appreciate that there has been a lot of suffering for some, lots of peoples lives have been improved by lockdown and new working practises. So me for instance - in the past my average daily commute, when i was in the office in Leeds was 4 hours or more and, when I was out of the office seeing clients, where I was formerly travelling 200 to 400 miles a day in my car visiting them, I'm now zooming them from my kitchen table. Hey presto I can do 95% of my job from home now.

I was also speaking to a GP friend who said that his job has (thus far) been transformed too - telephone call appointments, far less stress, far less chance of catching what your patient has, texting/emailing in pictures of infections/cuts/bites etc. Suddenly consulting with patients is far less of a hassle.

Bicycle sales have gone through the roof and, judging by the sheer number of walkers on top of Penyghent on Sunday, so has outdoor activity. So for many perhaps mental health has been improved too?

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Ironically, while I appreciate that there has been a lot of suffering for some, lots of peoples lives have been improved by lockdown and new working practises. So me for instance - in the past my average daily commute, when i was in the office in Leeds was 4 hours or more and, when I was out of the office seeing clients, where I was formerly travelling 200 to 400 miles a day in my car visiting them, I'm now zooming them from my kitchen table. Hey presto I can do 95% of my job from home now.

I was also speaking to a GP friend who said that his job has (thus far) been transformed too - telephone call appointments, far less stress, far less chance of catching what your patient has, texting/emailing in pictures of infections/cuts/bites etc. Suddenly consulting with patients is far less of a hassle.

Bicycle sales have gone through the roof and, judging by the sheer number of walkers on top of Penyghent on Sunday, so has outdoor activity. So for many perhaps mental health has been improved too?

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I had my hair cut this morning. When the salon reopened after lockdown he put my charge up 15% (Some more exotic female attention was uplifted by 40%!). I asked him today if his business had fallen away and he said not and in fact it is now spread more evenly through the week rather than being frantic on Friday/Saturday.

So he has less stress, has retained his customer base and is taking in more revenue. He seemed quite jolly!

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

Meanwhile, Japan only had restrictions on a par with Sweden and didn't bother overmuch with any of that testing malarky. They have 1,629 deaths from Covid,

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but how many would they have "with" Covid?

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

I had my hair cut this morning.

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Brylcreem prices not affected by covid-related shortages?

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

Peru locked down hard and early and has the worst death rate in the world (bar tiny San Marino). In Europe, Belgium locked down hard and early and has the worst death rate in Europe.

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Good point. What were the lock-down measures in Peru and Belgium? Also, do you mean early relative to the increasing curve of infections? I thought Belgium were one of the earliest hit countries in Europe, and that's why the infection and death rate got so high before they and others realised that lock-downs were a method of slowing it.

Mark Drakeford threatening to close the Welsh border, to prevent people from English Covid hotspots coming in to Wales. There'll be a nice job for some WFRA member, patrolling the ridge from Hay Bluff to Hatterrall Hill, although having to carry a machine gun may cramp your style a bit. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by noel

Good point. What were the lock-down measures in Peru and Belgium? Also, do you mean early relative to the increasing curve of infections? I thought Belgium were one of the earliest hit countries in Europe, and that's why the infection and death rate got so high before they and others realised that lock-downs were a method of slowing it.

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I think you're right that in Belgium the virus did get going early.

In Peru that doesn't seem to be the case. They went into a very strict lockdown in mid March. Looking at Worldometer the cases were very low at that point.

From this article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/d...excess-deaths/
In mid-March, President Martín Vizcarra imposed one of the strictest lockdowns anywhere in the free world. For the first 15 weeks of the pandemic, most residents were only allowed to leave home to either buy food or receive medical attention. Private vehicles were banned from circulating and masks were made obligatory in public. As if that was not enough, there was also an 8pm curfew.

The authorities meant it too. One viral video showed a man being arrested almost on his front door as he put out the rubbish at night.

But that lockdown came with a huge price tag. Peru’s $229-billion economy contracted by 30% in the second quarter. In a country where millions still go hungry, many, including the government, came to view the medicine as worse than the disease.

Gradually, since the end of June, some restrictions have been eased, although social gatherings remain prohibited. And the rate of new infections has shot back up again.

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Originally Posted by noel

Good point. What were the lock-down measures in Peru and Belgium? Also, do you mean early relative to the increasing curve of infections? I thought Belgium were one of the earliest hit countries in Europe, and that's why the infection and death rate got so high before they and others realised that lock-downs were a method of slowing it.

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Someone had a go recently at the mention of Peru, but there's a detailed timeline here.
"Experts say Peru's healthcare system was underprepared, leading to more deaths, but several other social and economic factors can help explain why Peru is struggling to contain the outbreak."
A lot of households can't store foodstuffs (no fridges), use of markets and the "informal economy" and overcrowded housing all contributed.

Same kind of timeline for Belgium here.
They had a a partial lockdown on 13 March, followed by a full lockdown on 18 March. In terms of raw numbers (which may not be cross-comparable) deaths as of today in Europe: United Kingdom (42 875), Italy (36 205), Spain (33 124), France (32 825), Belgium (10 211).

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Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

I had my hair cut this morning. When the salon reopened after lockdown he put my charge up 15%

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Well if you will wear that swish Rolex GB they'll see you coming!:cool: