Brexit

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

Yes, I know that and you know that. But I got the impression that a lot of Leave supporters assumed that they were going to get less immigration, rather than controlled immigration. And it doesn't deal with another very important point that you raise:

I am not very optimistic that any future controlled immigration policy will include ethical considerations about taking doctors, engineers, etc from poor countries where they are desperately needed. I have a friend who lived for a few years in Malawi and Zambia, and voted Leave because of the effect that EU trade policies have had on African economies. He thinks that Britain, out of the EU, will be able to trade more fairly with Africa and help to build up its economy. I hope he is right, but I'm not holding my breath.

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I would hope he is right as well.

Let's assume Boris wins the leadership of the Tories. I would say he has to deliver on most of these expectations or he will be toast when he comes to a general election.

If I were in Theresa May's shoes, I'd support him, give him enough rope to hang himself. If he delivers, no one will complain.

He did a good enough job in London for regular Labour supporter to re-elect him so he can't be that bad.

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

Yes, I know that and you know that. But I got the impression that a lot of Leave supporters assumed that they were going to get less immigration, rather than controlled immigration.

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Well DC promised immigration in the 10's of thousands and soon he will have the ability to achieve that target....but wait a minute....he won't, it will be someone else..

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Originally Posted by anthonykay

I have a friend who lived for a few years in Malawi and Zambia, and voted Leave because of the effect that EU trade policies have had on African economies. He thinks that Britain, out of the EU, will be able to trade more fairly with Africa and help to build up its economy. I hope he is right, but I'm not holding my breath.

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I suspect your friend may have been talking about the Common Agricultural Policy. This is the EU's long cherished policy, which through it;s high tariffs keeps food prices artificially high for us and discriminates against African and other third world farmers. I'm surprised that this doesn't seem to bother the "progressives" on the Remain side especially with them being so educated and tolerant compared to us Brexiteers who are so thick, bigoted and racist.

Anyway the good news for your friend, Africa and the rest of us is, even if we have to resort to an EEA arrangement like Norway we will be out of CAP and can remove such tariffs.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

I suspect your friend may have been talking about the Common Agricultural Policy. This is the EU's long cherished policy, which through it;s high tariffs keeps food prices artificially high for us and discriminates against African and other third world farmers. I'm surprised that this doesn't seem to bother the "progressives" on the Remain side especially with them being so educated and tolerant compared to us Brexiteers who are so thick, bigoted and racist.

Anyway the good news for your friend, Africa and the rest of us is, even if we have to resort to an EEA arrangement like Norway we will be out of CAP and can remove such tariffs.

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Good for Africa, but won't it destroy UK farming?

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Originally Posted by Mike T

Good for Africa, but won't it destroy UK farming?

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No, British farming has long been very efficient. CAP by way of tariffs on imports was always there for the benefit of French farmers.

But of course we can still replicate the financial support that British farmers receive from the EU to do the things we want like preserving the landscape. It was always simply recycling of our own money after all.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

No, British farming has long been very efficient. CAP by way of tariffs on imports was always there for the benefit of French farmers.

But of course we can still replicate the financial support that British farmers receive from the EU to do the things we want like preserving the landscape. It was always simply recycling of our own money after all.

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Just to underline that lets do some sums.

UK gross to EU circa £19B net £10B. Which taking the "rebate" in to account means that the EU spends something around £5B back here in the UK.
Now that is in grants for city deprived area development such as been mentioned in the Commons today, the science grants to Unis etc and also the farmers.
I think its £1B a year for the UK farmers +/- a little.

France receives over £10B a year from CAP alone and is the biggest recipient.

The CAP takes 43% of the EU budget (from a peak of 87%).

In the UK the Royal Family are proportionally some of the biggest recipients of aid.

If we were out of the CAP food prices may actually drop, but we will have to spend a commensurate ammount to help UK agriculture.

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Unfortunately racists (whatever their number or percentage) did attach themselves to the cause and subsequently this became a part of the campaign propaganda and the media reporting.

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Although it's ridiculous to suggest that everyone that voted leave is racist. There seems to have been a spike in reported incidents http://news.sky.com/story/1718374/ha...exit-aftermath

We really shouldn't dismiss this in any way, It should be challenged directly and consistently. Whether we like it or not, the reported incidents seem to be from people glad to see the back of the EU.

On the flip side, I experienced racism from pro EU supporters during the Scottish referendum. But in that scenario it was the English getting the blame.

And JP Morgan are planning for the UK economy to suddenly contract by around 8-10% in 2019

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0ZF15Z

Looks like my bins won't be getting collected so often, really must make sure I've no dental problems as well.

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Originally Posted by shaunaneto

We really shouldn't dismiss this in any way, It should be challenged directly and consistently.

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I agree that there should be zero tolerance of this. One of the things I would like to see is for the Government to unequivocally announce that those migrants who are already here legally have the absolute right to stay.

I do think we should put this into perspective though. The 57% increase in reported incidents is from 54 to 85. It's not good but from some of the reporting, you'd think we were talking about thousands.

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Originally Posted by shaunaneto

And JP Morgan are planning for the UK economy to suddenly contract by around 8-10% in 2019

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0ZF15Z

Looks like my bins won't be getting collected so often, really must make sure I've no dental problems as well.

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This article appears to be about J P Morgan expecting Scotland to be independent by 2019 and having its own currency.