Coronavirus

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Witton Park

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashi...ngden-18212057

My uncle was one of the 9 (it's probably more now) at Haslingden Hall. 7 of us attended his funeral last Thursday. He was in Blackburn infirmary for less than 24 hours at the end of April.
He counts in the ONS figures, but my mother told me yesterday that his test from hospital came back negative, so he isn't on the hospital Covid figures, or at least he shouldn't be.

So excuse me for any scepticism of the ONS figures, and even the hospital ones. I think it best to wait until we get in to next year and have some properly analysed excess death figures, and not ones modelled by the press either.

In East Lancs the daily figures for new cases yesterday were:
Blackburn with Darwen 3
Burnley 2
Hyndburn 0
Pendle 1
Rossendale 2

It's almost gone in the community here. I wouldn't be at all surprised if these were sadly all care home related.

---

Following on from my first knowledge of a non-Covid death that was on the covid list, I've now got my second.

Sadly in the last week, on my wife's side a long term family friend passed away.

Went in to hospital with breathing difficulties. Turned out to be a tumour and he only lasted a few days.

One of his two daughters was in the US and flew in immediatelt to see her Dad before he passed away. She wasn't allowed in to see him.
Only the other sister and Mum.

Covid was put on the death certificate and the family demanded it was removed.

Since then the test has come back negative - as of last night they still can't get it removed.

My next anecdote (so it will probably receive criticism) is from a relative who's a nurse. Woman fell off her horse, broke her leg, admitted to hospital as a Covid admission. My relative was on the ward where she was.
Tested after admission but negative.

Very interesting WP. I wonder how reflective it is of the broader picture.

What I can't understand is why there was a desire in these cases for COVID to be linked, in the lack of apparent evidence. What's your take on it?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by noel

Very interesting WP. I wonder how reflective it is of the broader picture.

What I can't understand is why there was a desire in these cases for COVID to be linked, in the lack of apparent evidence. What's your take on it?

---

I'm not sure I have a take on it Noel. There's a lot going on that seems illogical to me and not just on the Covid front.

If you have a look at the issues, they are what you might call driven by the left.

Brexit - despite the old lefties being anti-EU it become an alt-right against the left debate.

Immigration - linked in to that - any discussion that involves any limitations and the racist accusations come forward and the BLM issue that reared it's head.

The Electoral Commission again linked in to this, investigated and try to pursue Brexit groups and individuals but paid no attention to those on the Remain side.

Climate Change - well I believe it's happening, I'm not convinced it's happening at the pace we are being told by the ER lobby and I don't believe it's Armageddon ahead and I'd like to see it driven by desire for a better, cleaner environment rather than fear and hate.

That makes me a climate denier.

Covid - well as with many of the above issues, the left is strong in the public sector, driving much of the data and management of the policy.

When I look at each part of the above separately I think there's some merit in what I say and then when I look at the whole range of them put together and try to link them, I feel like I'm heading down the David Icke route :D

and people will say we have a Tory Govt - but they really would have to go out on a limb to depart from their advisors, and this is wider than just the UK.
It's the key parts of the Western World.

Something isn't adding up though.

That's a lot of things. I don't know where to start. But you do realise there are counter arguments to all of them - but equally that wouldn't support anyone's assertion that this is driven by the right. It just shows things become politicised - perhaps too much.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by noel

That's a lot of things. I don't know where to start. But you do realise there are counter arguments to all of them - but equally that wouldn't support anyone's assertion that this is driven by the right. It just shows things become politicised - perhaps too much.

---

Yes I understand Noel.

You asked me to put out there what I thought, and it's difficult to do that as the situation is complex and confusing for most of us. I just gave you a sense of how I'm feeling about it.

We had similar with a "Covid related" death in the family. Elderly relative with dementia went in to hospital, we were told with Covid. Also told they were never going to regain consciousness, so nobody was to visit them in hospital (they actually came round twice, alone in hospital, with no family to see them).

When they died, shortly after, we were told it was actually possibly pneumonia and not Covid. This happened in the summer and there's been no further explanation since.

To be honest, there's enough other stuff been going on in the family, (again reflecting terribly on the NHS amongst other parties), that nobody has really got the stomach to try and force an investigation into what has actually happened, what was the actual cause of death, and what it has been earmarked as for statistical purposes... it just seems better to let it lie and accept we have lost a relative and move on.

One might think that the NHS has lots to gain by presenting itself as perpetually in crisis. Oh wait...

I have no doubt that everybody admitted to hospital now for whatever reason will have their Covid status checked. If the test is positive, then they have got it, though it is not necessarily the cause of their illness. False positive tests are very uncommon. If the test is negative, they still might have it, as unfortunately false negatives are common, up to one third or so. If someone tests negative but there are other things that suggest Covid - loss of taste/smell, hypoxia, consolidation on their CXR/CT scan, then they would still be treated as if they have Covid, though a repeat Covid test or tests would be done.

Covid is a cause of pneumonia - that is the commonest way it causes severe illness and death.

Somebody with a tumour on their CXR could have Covid like consolidation as well.

Even somebody admitted to hospital with a broken leg would be regarded as having Covid until this had been excluded - and one test, as discussed above, does not exclude it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mike T

I have no doubt that everybody admitted to hospital now for whatever reason will have their Covid status checked. If the test is positive, then they have got it, though it is not necessarily the cause of their illness. False positive tests are very uncommon. If the test is negative, they still might have it, as unfortunately false negatives are common, up to one third or so. If someone tests negative but there are other things that suggest Covid - loss of taste/smell, hypoxia, consolidation on their CXR/CT scan, then they would still be treated as if they have Covid, though a repeat Covid test or tests would be done.

Covid is a cause of pneumonia - that is the commonest way it causes severe illness and death.

Somebody with a tumour on their CXR could have Covid like consolidation as well.

Even somebody admitted to hospital with a broken leg would be regarded as having Covid until this had been excluded - and one test, as discussed above, does not exclude it.

---

Here's my expectation.

Patient admitted and given a test.

That patient shouldn't be a covid admission without a confirmed test, so 48 hours in or whenever. Fine to treat them as with covid at first, but not to record them as such because once they are in as Covid, they will not be removed and it will distort the figures.

Then that patient should be retested again to confirm the first test.

That double test along with a doctor's diagnosis would give confidence to the "covid admission" label.

If they are admitted with symptoms, then there is perhaps a very good chance. But you want all admissions testing (and I agree) but if you test someone admitted with a kidney infection....

"if the test is positive, then they have got it"

is bogus. I'm sorry Mike, but that is just not right.

As far as what's "common" and "very uncommon" I can't see what you have to go off in order to make that assertion.

If False negatives are 20% and False Positives are 1% then they could be equally as common in a hospital setting and the False Positive will be far more common in a non-hospital setting such as the Pillar 2 testing and more common in non-respiratory admissions.

I'd also like to see "Covid Discharge" recorded.

Covid admissions = Covid discharges + covid deaths.

The stats constantly tell us the rate of admissions are on the increase, but an analysis the other day, I think of Liverpools hospitals, showed that discharges were actually higher than admissions and the pressure that has built up is now reducing.

You are so blowing this out of all proportion witton. We are smack in the middle of a huge, easily transmitted and, for some, deadly disease that has been recently spreading really fast and you are seemingly coming up with arguments, at best on the fringe of things, that you think somehow justify the whole country taking a more relaxed view to it all. Its all been discussed before - false positives are more than offset by false negatives. So you making what I'm sure are reliable anecdotal references to false positive tests doesn't actually change things diddly squat