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Firstly Stolly I was referring to trade specifically. It doesn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
The GDP Growth of the EU started to decline relative to the rest of the G20 since Maastricht and it has been worse in the Eurozone.
Germany's Centre for European Policy says euro brought a net gain of €2tn (€21,000 per capita) to Germans over 20 years to 2017. But it cost France €3.6tn (€56,000/capita) and Italy €4.3tn (€74,000/capita).
It works for some I suppose :rolleyes:
I'm with you WP the EU has failed GB.
Glad to be leaving, as voted for by a majority.
Yes, I concur but it was hardly a decisive majority was it?
Explain exactly how the EU has “failed” GB Stagger. Give some reasons and examples maybe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Or don’t you have any?
Comparing EU growth since Maastricht to a group that includes China and India isn’t the best. It’s not a like for like comparison. There’s even a few resource driven booms in that list along with some stagnant economies. The only way we’ll get anything like their growth rates is with a massive demographic shift or a new industrial revolution. Or massively cheapened labour that too is an option.
Now, if you can find a comparable with limited resources, an aging population, similarly sized and mixed economies Restricted low skilled migration. Then maybe we can start to build a believable Brexit model for the UK to build on.
Argentina’s not the model is it?
How about the USA?
Since Euro, Eurozone GDP Grown 26% compared to USA 46%.
You make a good case for the EU fully integrating into a US style federal set up.
I didn’t expect that from you WP 😆
Love these comparsion between the UK and EU. I wonder if France was not in the EU would their problems with militant trade unionism that block so many of the badly needed labour reforms that country needs suddendly go away?
Would Italy suddendly create a class of sensible politicians and the people elect them, plus give them the time to also modernise the country's outdated economy, instead of historically relying on devaluation to keep the country competitive?
Would 100,000s of of desperate migrants stop trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea, causing so much of the tensions within the EU at the moment.
But nobody will answer; you have your answer all the problems in the EU are 100% caused by the EU and Euro.
BTW Ireland was 5.6% growth in 18 and predicted 4% for 19. What is the UK again?
Did not know that, so I Googled it. I am not saying I disagree with it as you must have got those figures from somewhere reliable, but it is a much more complex measurement than those figures would suggest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
In his final paragraph.
The truth is that neither side ‘wins’ in this beauty contest. Europe merely does less badly than the USA in some crucial respects. Yes, while it is true that the core Eurozone countries could perform far better, Germany, France and Italy have quite different problems – in comparison both to the US and to each other – which require quite different solutions. Anybody who claims that the US provides a model which the EU should copy needs to consider the basic economic facts of the case.
http://www.federalist-debate.org/ind...e-economy-wins
It is from November 2006, I could not be bothered to search anymore, but the general gist of it is probably still relevant.
Firstly on the trade front, we already know that leaving without a deal will completely hammer us, so clearly staying in the EU is profoundly better than that, and secondly the only one example of leaving the EU where we might be better off is the cloud cuckoo land star spangled unicorn ideal of ‘full trading benefits of eu, but with no contributions and closed borders’ which will never ever happen. So staying in is easily better for trade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Secondly, aside from trade, what about all of the other massive advantages of staying in the EU that I listed.... presumably which you ignored as you have no answers 😉
You are obviously an EU idealist but unfortunately your idealism is not matched by reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
I actually think in its first thirty years the EU was broadly a force for good. It brought together old foes in the shape of Germany and France. Economic cooperation does generally reduce conflict. But as integration has increased so the cracks have appeared. The euro was a huge mistake when no political or bank union existed. The cart was placed before the horse.
The result has been catastrophic for much of Southern Europe with a lost generation of unemployed. In Greece GDP fell by a whopping 25%. You might argue that some of the countries were responsible for their own downfall and I would have some sympathy with that. But the euro strait jacket has meant there was no means to escape from their economic woes. A bankrupt country with its own currency would have it devalued pretty quickly, instantly boosting exports. It would be free to control its own monetary policy - interest rates, QE etc. Finally it could normally expect an IMF bail-out, which while involving some austerity would also involve a debt write-off. Instead the Greeks have just had crippling austerity as the the EU moved to save French and German banks from their losses.
Italy is nearly as bad, having had next to no growth since the inception of the euro. For sure Italians weren't blameless having gone into the project with a very high debt to GDP ratio. But Italy, which has traditionally had a very strong industrial base is seeing this being whittled away as it competes at an exchange rate very favourable for Germany but not for them. All the while being dictated to by the EU about their fiscal policy. Italians finally had enough and voted for populist parties who now control the Government.
What will happen to these fragile eurozone economies when the next global downturn comes? It does not seem that far away.
This is hardly the Europe you describe.
Excellent case of arguing against your own Thesis there. So Italy can fix all their problems by adding more zeros onto their Liras. And the Greeks can continue denying that to have a functioning society the government has to balance it's books, with realistic spending and people paying their taxes.
The EU/Euro really brought their deep-seeded problems to the fore, it did not cause them.
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Grappling with the EU and bringing in such a diverse range of different countries is a truly difficult thing to undertake and was never going to be easy and without big difficulties along the way. But the long term aspirations and vision of it all is fantastic and it’s definitely worthwhile. On the other hand ducking out, not liking foreigners and not being bothered isn’t....
And let’s not forget the devastation wreaked on various parts of our own country by past U.K. politicians either. And as for the future, Honda employees and sub-contractors in Swindon have already been dumped and who’s to say the same won’t happen for Nissan and Sunderland.
Except Honda itself said that the closure of their plant was nothing to do with Brexit. But of course I accept that you Stolly know much more about it than Ian Howells, the senior vice president for Honda in Europe. He explicitly said that it was not a Brexit related issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
Honda said that the move was ‘in response to the unprecedented changes in the global automotive industry. The significant challenges of electrification will see Honda revise its global manufacturing operations, and focus activity in regions where it expects to have high production volumes.’
Their growth area is no longer Europe but elsewhere in the world and in particular south east Asia.
It's quite ironic that people like you go on endlessly about "lies" made by the Leave campaign but are very happy to come out with blatant dishonesty yourselves.
You know that is bollocks. Yeah globally the motor trade is changing but it always has been and always will be changing. Japan signing a massive trade agreement directly with the EU is also a massive factor but, ironically, had we still wanted to be in the EU, Honda will have still had factories fully up and running and nearby in the U.K. to trade with the eu and would’ve most probably continued to operate them. Now though, with that option probably closed, and with the ability to trade direct from japan they don’t need to. Japan was just looking to avoid loss of face (for the U.K.) and soften the blow by announcing that Brexit hadn’t been a direct influence. Clearly it was a massive indirect influence thoughQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
You can't answer my points can you about the inherent flaws of the euro? What you fail to see is that bringing in such a diverse range of countries in the euro is precisely why it shouldn't have been done. It could never work for that reason. Italy cannot compete with Germany at the same exchange rate. In a country with its own currency poorer regions receive fiscal transfers from richer regions as compensation. But there is no such mechanism in the eurozone. There is no political union to enable this to happen. It should have already existed before attempting to create a common currency. Even then there would have been no guarantee of success because of the lack of common institutions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
But at least you are able to fall back on your tried and trusted nonsense about leavers not liking foreigners.
So that been the case then, why haven't they decided to relocate to a neighbouring EU country?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
The only reason you won't accept Honda's detailed explanation for their move is that it doesn't fit in with your narrative of companies fleeing the UK because of Brexit. Honda say it is nothing to do with Brexit but what do they know about it? You know better.
What nonsense How about replacing Italy with Ireland.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
When Ireland joined the EU and then the Euro it was decades behind mainland Europe in economic and social development. It is now one of the leading lights in Europe. The same can be said of many other small European and former Eastern Block countries.
Why is that? a combination of EU financial support and taking the hard medicine as shown by Ireland's peformance since coming out of the bailout.
The solution to these countries' problems lies very much within their own borders.
I don’t think they have any car production plants already up and running elsewhere in the EU (lawnmowers and motorcycles yes but not cars). And if so, that’s whyQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
If they'd really wanted a presence in Europe then they would have created one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
The plant in Swindon was already well below capacity and in general the car industry is in crisis in Europe. Honda's growth markets are in Asia.
Why do you know better than Honda themselves?
On 1st January 2002 countries first started using Euro bank notes. The year before Ireland was ranked 13th out of 195 countries in the world for GDP per capita.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/ireland?year=2001
That doesn't sound like being light years behind the rest of Europe to me. Ireland adopts a very competitive corporation tax rate, which attracts a lot of investment. That is a much better explanation for Ireland's success. That may not last forever though - the EU has plans to harmonise tax rates across Europe. This will cause tremendous damage to Ireland.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...exit-1.3220094
I already said that countries have to take some responsibility for their problems but the euro strait jacket exacerbates them as I explained. Some countries can compete at the same exchange rate but others quite clearly cannot.
Why not?Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Is there something inherentialy wrong in how they run their own economies that prevents them running their countries properly.
Will leaving a strict rules system fix those inherent problems, or just allow them to paper over the cracks, with devaluations,etc.
We all know where that leads to eventually.
. They have (and will have had) a presence in Europe 😊Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
But these countries have very diverse economies and cultures, it is mistaken to believe that they will all act in the same way. Why should there be a prescriptive way of doing things? A strict "one size fits all" rules system doesn't work as has been demonstrated.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
They haven't fixed the inherent problem that a political and banking union doesn't exist. There will be very few defences left when the next global downturn comes, which does not look far away.
Devaluations create the breathing space to fix problems - whether countries do so is up to them. They have certainly helped Italy in the past - as in fact the UK was helped when it dropped out of the ERM in 1992. What was thought of as Black Wednesday at the time eventually became Golden Wednesday as the UK quickly economy recovered and 16 years of unbroken growth followed.
“Remain would win a second referendum by 9 points”. Here’s hoping 🤞 https://www.businessinsider.com/youg...19-2?r=US&IR=T 😊
I suggest you study the dysfunctionality of the Euro before echo brussels line. All previous currency unions have failed for exactly the same reasons, including several previous unions in Europe and the very comparable roublezone. The euro is beggaring the southern countries. I am amazed people are willing to stand by and accept the social demolition it causes by supporting EU.
Bottom line: It is impossible to combine dislike economies under the same interest rate and exchange rates period. Certainly not with ECB ridiculous banking rules which will bring italian banks to collapse. Nor has italy levers of control to correct it whilst in EU.
It is only a matter of time before the Eurozone collapses. The probable trigger? mass youth unemployment becoming increasingly young adults will no longer accept austerity it forces, hence populist elections. Italy will crash out first and when it defaults, the EU will tumble. Target 2 and issuer limits show the game is up. As for ireland, think low taxes.
Interesting speculation Oracle. Low taxes to attract companies certainly help business. I'm yet to be convinced that it's good for citizens.
Whenever anyone uses this argument about disparate economies, I'm reminded of the US economy. There they have states will lots of different laws to each other and very different economic circumstances. Yet they have one currency. I'm not hearing a clamour of people saying Alabama (for example) should leave the dollar to devalue its way out of debt. And yet people are proposing it as a solution to the woes of some Southern European countries.
Bad example: The list of bankrupt towns and states is growing.
Detroit is a ghost town that can never recover. Direct result of corbyn like spending binge, all the same messages, all the way to bankruptcy. All the professional people that can have gone ( just like greece, portugal, italy). Public services once booming now no longer exist. Inevitable increasing tax rates for the few that remain prevent it ever recovering. Just like (portugal, italy, greece) Italy under a lira could reboot. First it must default.
The economies of the USA are essentially similar, unlike the Eurozone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
The US isn't perfect as alluded to by Oracle but one of the reason it manages better than the eurozone is because of fiscal transfers from richer states to poorer ones. I mentioned this in a post of mine earlier today. This is quite an old article - from 2013 - but it gives a good explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...l-integration/
US taxes at federal level average 17% of GDP while the EU collects only 1% of GDP. The USA is a political and fiscal union. The eurozone is not.
Here is a very readable article about why the euro has failed.
https://qz.com/1377098/why-the-euro-failed/
"know"Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
opinion - I don't know that to be true but my opinion is that it might not be, but of course I cannot speak for Govt policy that might be adapted to us having a clean break and not one of the models takes in to account any changes of Government policy after leaving, or any changes come to that when they model us Remaining.
Well the Director General of the CBI speaking on radio 4 this morning had a completely different opinion to you WP 🤔Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Labour chop another member of parliament for racist comments.
Yes Stolly. This is the same person who claimed they speak for 190,000 members to the DEXU Select Committee. It turned out they only have 1500.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
One of their members is the National Farmers Union and they have circa 55K members and she was counting the members of members.
In the Scottish Referendum on Independence they actually registered with the Electoral Commission to allow them to campaign and spend money to lobby for a no vote.
A number of their Scottish Members resigned in protest at the CBI getting involved in politics - not in my name they said.
9 Universities, The Law Society, a bunch of QUANGOS like Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Visit Scotland.
You know, the real commercial players North of the Border were their key members.
The idea that the CBI is representative of business is for the deluded.
This is bollocks and shows a lack of understanding of trade, tariffs and country of origin - and I know you are a bright guy - this is just outside of your area it seems.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
Honda has UK and Turkish factories and they are pulling them.
They came here for tariff free access, they now have it in 10 years, so they no longer need to invest here to gain access. If they did remain here they would have to reduce domestic production.
So if we remained in, it would make no difference to the Honda decision. The plant has been in decline for 10 years as Honda has struggled to gain traction in the European market and been much more successful in North America.
But consider this.
The EU sell 3 times more cars here than we do in the EU.
If worst case scenario and we have 10% tariffs and customs clearance costs, the UK manufactures will gain more sales in the UK (because EU imports of VW and Renault increase 10%) than they lose in the EU, so there is actually more motive for Honda to keep the plant open if we leave under WTO terms than if we leave with a Norway + type arrangement.
You will see on some of the other posts this matter dealt with.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Yes you are right though. There is a case for a Federal Europe.
Maggie was pro Europe and an architect of the Single Market, but when she got wind of Maastricht and the Euro she said no and they moved her on swiftly as she would have blocked it.
She knew that if you had a common currency you needed an effective mechanism for fiscal transfer, just like we do and the USA does and it would lead to a Federal Europe or fail.
The UK and US versions are imperfect. They lead to disparities. But nothing compared to those across the EU.
Pat if you're going to look at it, do it properly instead of the back of fag packer method.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I saw the discussion on Politics Live, with Andrew Neil a couple of weeks ago.
You can go on the trading economics website and generate your own graphs from the stats.
Australia is another modern economy that's wiped the floor with the Eurozone over the last 25 years, mostly in the first half of the period.
In terms of the US as a model, I never said we should follow it.
What I said was that my opposition on here big up the EU in terms of trade. What a success they claim, why would we leave?
But it isn't.
We can't compare to developing economies of course. But it is not a model that anyone, anywhere is seeking to replicate.
But then what's the surprise? It's the same with our untouchable NHS which has worse health outcomes than most and again no one tries to replicate, yet many Brits would die to maintain it.
So Witton Park, Muddy Retriever and Stagger, three members of a fell running forum, know more about the effects of leaving the EU without a deal than the Confederation of British Industry. Hmmm... 🤔
Edit: Actually I’m being unfair to Stagger. He hasn’t really demonstrated that he knows anything about anything 😊; only that he wants out!
I live in a democracy majority rule.
Don't you?
From the referendum on joining the common market to becoming bound by their laws is wrong.
That's why I voted leave.
It's not your fault stolly that you are smarter than the rest.
Its a shame you can't demonstrate it though.