Well, that's one prediction that's gone badly wrong. I'm nowhere near racing fitness yet!Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
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Well, that's one prediction that's gone badly wrong. I'm nowhere near racing fitness yet!Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
I can't speak for the Mail as I don't read it. But the two worst cases I've seen were Beth Rigby asking the press conference how many were going to die, and then this Professor Ashton who's been doing the rounds promoting a coup.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daletownrunner
I think had the football gone ahead last week as the horse racing, rugby etc. there would not have been the rush to the shops there was.
They said 50 million in storage? almost 1 per uk bum for a company that supplies only 30 percent of the market, so it sounds like 3 per bum across the market. A weeks supply? How much do we all use? It is not gastro enteritis, which can imagine spikes demand. But 3 per bum is more than JIT . And they are upping production to meet demand.. Have to admit I studiously avoid the mail. But it sometimes comes up in news aggregators, which is how I came to read that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daletownrunner
I agree, it’s virtually impossible to run out, a machine will turn out two of the parent reels in 20-25 mins, I suppose the issue is with people who come down with the illness (and those who don’t but fancy a two week break) lose those people and you lose the machine... although also studiously avoiding the Mail the website is my go to place to check out what Rita Ora is wearing this week or what the cast of Towie are up to ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Google OMM 2008 - he has form.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
I'm starting to wonder how this nation survived the blitz! The key back then was strong leadership from old Winny, no such thing seems to be getting channelled by Boris. Where's the positivity gone? The media are doing nothing but telling us all how scared we all are; calmness is more infectious than any viral epidemic. This crisis is laying bare the inadequecies of a self-limiting and powerless western lifestyle in which your own personal power is dictated to you by the nation's media outlets, and your self-worth is defined by a comparison to Spencer and Vogue off the telly box.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Local Tesco trip tonight just made me angry, no bread, no toilet roll, no yeast, no porridge, I bet the majority of the goons buying all of this couldn’t make a loaf of bread and would normally turn their noses up at a bowl of porridge, plus the local Curry’s has sold out of chest freezers, total lunacy!!! to pick up on your thread Mr B, people’s lives are now governed by what they see online, it’s crazy
True.
Bookface is a terrible thing.
Our two lives are very much governed by reality and not what we see and read on-line. But talking of real life, The Archers hasn't caught up with CV yet. I mean, like, what's going on, are there no cases in Borsetshire?
Haven't the people of Italy suffered enough?
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/m...vid-19-968865/
Only ever bought one album of theirs Rattle and Hum, which I got second hand somewhere. I enjoyed it but in general I was never really a U2 fan.
I'm going to be a bit controversial here because I have concerns over the way the Government seems to be dishing out the aid package to business - and I say seem as it's not been clarified yet.
Yesterday the Supermarket shares rallied and are up again today on the announcement by the Chancellor. These companies are currently experiencing an Xmas style boom and there's no indication that they will be closed down and unable to sell their goods.
But the support seems to be aimed at them in a way that favours them. I heard of one company saving 100s of millions.
At the moment, the corner shops are actually holding the fort as those supermarkets can't cope.
Closer to home, my little business I run from home is competing with long established and much bigger players who are in line for grant support, business rate holidays.... that I am not.
Competition rules perhaps do go out the window in such times, but they must be careful that the support being given doesn't distort the market and allow some companies to game the system and come out of it with a competitive advantage gained from that.
Donald Trump has passed a law to provide financial support for ALL Americans.
Like I said earlier, we are just sheep. Not a leader in sight.
Speak for yourself, I am busy social isolating myself therefore not following anybody and certainly not following any sheeplike behaviour and flocking with others :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Your choice, if you feel the need.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnK
Have you stocked up with bog rolls, pasta and hand gel?
our Biggest problem is garbage in, garbage out oncomputer models that seem to have taken over from common sense.
I had a discussion with a civil servant at the focus of CV response , and it is clear that even he was unaware of the variety of presentation. It was a surprise when I pointed out to him that current health service advice is if you have a fever or cough, not as he assumed fever then cough. Other advice saying unless it goes into your lungs it will pass quickly, uneventfully.
Worse still he was citing number of cases when we have no idea whatsoever how many there are because nobody anywhere is collecting that information. Because if I have all the symptoms and self isolate I am told not to call surgeries 111 or A and E unless it becomes serious. Nor is there anywhere I could record the presentation.
So NOBODY is collecting actual numbers: propagation estimates are bogus figures on which health service models are based.
Speaking to some who have had CV, it is not for many the life threatening or even debilitating illness.
I think we may yet discover the economy has been shut down on the basis of another expert project fear.
Well you are obviously not vulnerable or 70 Oracle, so how old are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Article in the Telegraph "What lessons can Britain learn from Germany's successes with coronavirus?"
It's quite an arrogant (and perhaps premature) piece but remarkable in my mind.
"Still, there is one figure that has caught attention: the death rate in Germany. Compared to the number of people infected with coronavirus, the number of deaths in Germany has been maintained, at least for now, at a lower level to most other developed countries. As of Wednesday afternoon, there were more than 10,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Germany and 27 people had died. The UK during the same period had more than 2,600 confirmed cases and over 100 people had died. In Italy, more than 31,000 people were infected, with more than 2,500 fatalities."
and
"It is natural to compare between countries, but it is a difficult exercise. The numbers for testing, for example, vary massively from one place to the other. While in Britain there are tests for coronavirus post-mortem, this is not the case in Germany."
If they aren't testing post-mortem, their figures will look a darn site lower!
I wonder what planet the writer lives on when reading such a piece.
Which comparisons are utter bllx , nobody is recording how many cases there are, so death rate stats are utterly meaningless, and the difference is how serious it is before anyone notices.
Never quite old enough to get preferential. Treatment. I can only point out that the fatality rate for sufferers is a small proportion and unfortunate. The death rate from starvation if we close the economy down is 100 percent.
However many fivers Boris offers , you cannot eat them or wipe your bum without blocking sewers
I think I have had Cv but I’m certainly not on official statistics!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
The impact of disease spread is made through the use of extraordinarily complex multivariate calculations. Obviously the data that feeds into those calculations will be different for different countries and cultures. It must be exasperating for those who are working their socks off to hear the comments and criticisms of ill informed individuals or media groups. But they are probably used to that.
Having said that, the disease modelling for FMD was not, with the benefit of hindsight, totally correct. Let's hope the science has progressed since then.
It's a cliche but best advice is keep calm and carry on....within the imposed restrictions.
I think this is well worth a read on the situation and special attention should be paid to item 4 when we read stuff in the press and on forums. Our approach is keep our heads down, take no risks, follow government advice and be sensible.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...00000134125352
Some might think so what, we are all going to get it anyway - but if we can slow it down, flatten the demand curve, there may be space on ITU when the time comes, and of course it gives scientists a chance to develop and test drugs/vaccine.
Let's look at Iran, population 83 million. It has been estimated that if they ignore Covid 19 restrictions there will be 4 million cases and 3.5 million deaths; if they partly cooperate there will be 300,000 cases and 110,00 deaths; if they fully cooperate, 120,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.
Yes - keep calm, carry on, but within the advised restrictions, which may of course change with time.
I get it wheeze. In my early incarnation I was a stochastic math modeller using such as extended kalman filters. I also heard from
My dept of health civil service contact they are even using google searches as an input.
They are also utterly stupid.
There is no means for reporting you have it, to cross check assumptions. and the symptoms are misleading so nobody really knows . So garbage, in garbage out is the old adage of computer modelling
This is not ebola with well defined symptoms and necessity of medical care.
It is easy to convince yourself models are right which is why not joining the euro , 2008 and Brexit economic forecasts were all utterly wrong.
I’m coming back to uk from
Portugal as we speak which records as only having 200 cases: none where we were. Except I’m aware of a dozen cases even amongst the small Group of people I interact.
They ,like the uk , have no means of reporting you have it , or any clear definition of what it is, so none did report it.
I’m certain I did have it. But both in the UK and here the agencies have told us not to contact health services. So all the figures are totally inevitably wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
In that by the way is a silver lining. Potentially many have already had it and developed immunity, which case the death rates could be much lower than forecast.
I am highly critical of the lack of a website
To report suspected cases, or lack of instruction to polling companies to do any systemic symptom analysis.
So nobody knows and the figures are bllx
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Oracle, you remind me of Nessa!😂
You’ve got me there wheeze: absolutely no idea of to whom or to what you refer!
You're in need of some cultural refreshment!;)
Barry Island BoyoQuote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
We are about to see a control group for do nothing.
Imran Khan says Pakistanis are so poor they simply can’t afford to lockdown and eat.
So do little or nothing may yet be tested in Pakistan.
Sadly in a destitute country the outcome is likely worse than rich countries.
Although I am inclined to believe put a firewall and lockdown on 70 plus and compromised, with quarantine and providing for them, then let it burn out in the lower risk population , might have been better than trashing the entire economy, not least because I think it is far more prevalent by orders of magnitude than suggested.
What I will say is the chief scientist / health have decided which way to go, and all should do what they decide.
Notice on Twitter that the Frog Graham are not recognising any attempts for the foreseeable to try to keep people out of Cumbria, I may have missed it but is the BGR doing the same?
Yes. See Thread Bob Graham Round - Covid 19.
Cheers LB never saw it :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Llani Boy
Tough to judge this.
My brother has a static caravan on a private site near Cartmel, and as my holiday to Fuerteventura fell through he offered it to us for a few days.
So went up Saturday early. We took our own food for 3 days so no need to shop up there.
We didn't stop anywhere.
We were walking in very quiet areas where it was at times more difficult to find someone who's personal space you could invade :)
Saturday afternoon we did around 11 miles ended at Greenodd along the Cumbrian Coastal Path which was very quiet and found a chippy open for a late dinner.
The chippy took the order from the doorway, there was no queue. Those that had given their orders had moved away and no one broke the 2 metre rule of the half a dozen people in front of the chippy - in fact it was more like 5 metres.
We ventured up How Barrow and got a slight surprise. Wife and I walking up the left and a couple with dogs walking down the other side towards us a few metres apart and I just gave a polite "good morning" only to be returned with a "good morning Richard" as to my surprise a couple of Dashers were on the same site :D
We only then saw one other couple at a distance near the top of the Hill.
This morning prior to returning we parked up and had a walk on Humphrey Head and saw a runner and a lone walker.
The only time we encountered a number of people was in Grange on Sunday afternoon. A sea front walk where everyone seemed to be behaving responsibly There weren't many about but those that were seemed to be observing the guidance.
The problem seems to be two-fold.
Some people have innocently decided to get out in to the parks, countryside or coastal towns, but all seem to have had the same idea and converged on the most popular spots. Then instead of changing to a plan B or returning home, they've just cracked on regardless.
Some however have just blatantly ignored the guidance. These are the ones we really should reserve our umbrage for. I saw some knuckle-heads had moved to an outdoor gym on the news. Planks!
I walked up Beacon Hill yesterday: direct route up, then return via Felicity's Wood and Buck Hill. On the way up, there's a short stretch along the road near the Lower Beacon car park, and there were cars parked along the verge for a good quarter of a mile from the car park entrance. I was wondering whether it was a good idea to continue into Beacon Hill Country Park; but I only saw a few people on the way up the hill, and even at the summit, although there were plenty of people around, they were all sitting or standing at least 2 metres apart. The only tricky situations were meeting other walkers on narrow sections of footpath, particularly on my route back down; I moved well to one side of the path, some of them reciprocated, but not all.
After I got back home, I saw a notice on facebook that the Outwoods (which I had passed through both on the way up and coming back down) were closed. But I hadn't seen any notices to this effect when I was there. Presumably the Borough Council (who own the Outwoods) had put notices up, but people had been taking them down -- the same people who a few weeks ago were removing signs warning of floods on the roads. :mad:
Yes it's difficult. I'm planning to do one of these virtual races next weekend, where follow the route on a map or gps, and send in my time (in fact it's not even official as that... just that a race/challenge was cancelled, and the organiser asked if any 'intrepid' souls who do the course want to send in any photos/times).
I'll drive (admittedly a good 1hr30 drive) alone, change in my car alone, start alone, do the course alone, and drive home alone. Unlikely to see many if anyone on the route... it's not exactly the Pyg Track Snowdon.
I'm failing to see how any of that would be any more harmful than anything else i'd be doing as an alternative on sunday.
Yet all the part-time Biological Scientists, Politicians and Economists on social media would have me think that I was a scumbag and a threat to humanity for even considering such an action.
In the meantime, planes from Italy, France, USA, China, still landing at our airports.
My colleague at work also has a static caravan on a site in the Welsh Borders. From what he's told me, the issue a lot of the caravan sites are experiencing, is that people (especially elderly couples) are descending upon their caravans on the site to 'self isolate'
The site I was on near Cartmel, South Lakes is on the Holker Hall Estate. Last night they said locals had expressed concern to management that people were coming out to isolate putting them at risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by Travs
So the Estate management put a message out closing the site and gave everyone until today to leave. No access until further notice.
I can understand the local's concern. But I bet many wouldn't think twice about heading off in to Lancaster or Barrow if they needed to.
I've seen Mountain Rescue putting out info advising against going out of your local area.Quote:
Originally Posted by Travs
Then this from the BMC.
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/climbing-an...5pVqEUoMFXREVM
If anything happens to you, emergency cover might not be able to respond as resources are being diverted.
I'm as likely to turn my ankle a mile from home, as I am in the Howgills. I suppose I can at least get myself home if it happens locally, so will stick to my own patch for the time being on the West Pennines and Billinge Woods above Witton Park.
Time to shut our boarders. Airports, ferry routes and that bloody tunnel.