Still just a dusting here Mike, with the makings of a temp. inversion brewing. Nice and crispy though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
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Still just a dusting here Mike, with the makings of a temp. inversion brewing. Nice and crispy though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
The Met Office is in Exeter. Normal temperatures in the North Pennines really are unprecedented low temperatures down there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
Weather has been massively over-dramatised since the advent of 24hr tv news.
Got to fill the hours somehow. ie live coverage of a news reporter standing on a slightly windy seafront.
What I find particularly amusing is how a few days of high, record breaking temperatures in the summer (and the usual doom-laden crisis pronouncements) this is cited as evidence of scary global warming.
Yet when we have a run of unprecedented very cold days in the winter, suddenly that's not contrary evidence about global warming, rather it's dismissed as "just weather, not climate". Go figure! :rolleyes:
Yes, but just think how cold it would have been without global warming. Keep running your cars everyone ;)
Several days in a row now the overnight frost has been so heavy it looked, in Ambleside, like a light snowfall, but the last snow at this level was 9th/10th of December.
There is a small tarn near Lily Tarn that is only ever about 2 feet deep at the most. It is of course frozen over; the ice is broken in a couple of places, and it is about 2 and a half to 3 inches thick. People and dogs have been walking on it. I understand that ice needs to be at least 4 inches thick for it to be safe to walk on.
I remember reading in the excellent book Schott's Miscellany, of the weight bearing properties of different ice thicknesses. Thankfully someone on the UK hillwalking forums has transcribed it - thank you whoever Ron is:
Quote:
Theoretically 'safe' thickness of ice for different weights; from Schotts original miscellany, Ben Schott. Not sure exactly how it was calculated, it assumes solid blue/black ice.
all values in inches
single person on skis 1.5
single person on foot 2.5
Group in single file 3
Snowmobile 3
Average car 7.5
Large car 8
Medium truck3.5 tons 9
7tons 10
15 tons 15
25 tons 20
45 tons 25
70 tons 30
I am not sure whether these values are factored.
Don't blame me if it isn't right.
Ron
Re Ice. It seems sea ice extent is on a gradual increase in the Antarctic while on a decrease in the arctic - since 1979. What's that about?
https://osisaf-hl.met.no/v2p1-sea-ice-index
Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
So how much ice is required for an overweight 14 year old, (so not me, then), riding a modified Raleigh Chopper across an East Staffordshire reservoir?Quote:
Theoretically 'safe' thickness of ice for different weights; from Schotts original miscellany, Ben Schott. Not sure exactly how it was calculated, it assumes solid blue/black ice.
all values in inches
single person on skis 1.5
single person on foot 2.5
Group in single file 3
Snowmobile 3
Average car 7.5
Large car 8
Medium truck3.5 tons 9
7tons 10
15 tons 15
25 tons 20
45 tons 25
70 tons 30
I am not sure whether these values are factored.
Don't blame me if it isn't right.
Ron
The data in that webpage show no clear trend at all in the Antarctic, whereas there is a clear decrease in the Arctic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
In any case, increasing temperatures in very cold regions can lead to more ice. Air at -10C can hold more water vapour than air at -20C, so an increase in temperature in that range can lead to more precipitation, which would still fall as snow.
Lol. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Marco
Clearly Schott need to do another update to answer important questions like this.
[QUOTE=anthonykay;681407]The data in that webpage show no clear trend at all in the Antarctic,
https://osisaf-hl.met.no/archive/osi...onthly-all.png
See September trend +8 thousand km2 / year +0.4%/ decade
[QUOTE=Mossdog;681410]It's rather surprising that they don't give any of the usual statistical measures of the significance of the trend. The downward trend in the Arctic is obvious from the graphs, whereas in the Antarctic September graph the year-to-year variation looks quite large compared to the upward trend. Even more interesting is that the trend in November is slightly downward, whereas in December it is upward again!Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
[QUOTE=anthonykay;681413]Does it actually make sense to work on calendar month averages? Is it not possible that the timing of the cycle varies slightly from year to year, leading to fluctuations in these values? Maybe the max and min of a 30 day rolling average would be more useful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
I guess that when dealing with issues of statistical significance, that attempting to gauge what level of significance is required to reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative, is a very difficult decision given the millions of years that the planet has had an atmosphere and its massive complexities. We only really have accurate data for the last 150 years or so and indirect measurements (tree growth rings; deep core ice samples; and the like) are also highly variable.
Statistics, eh!
"I'm not very good at problems," admitted Milo.
"What a shame," sighed the Dodecahedron. "They're so very useful. Why, did
you know that if a beaver two feet long with a tail a foot and a half long can build a
dam twelve feet high and six feet wide in two days, all you would need to build
Boulder Dam is a beaver sixty-eight feet long with a fifty-one-foot tail?"
"Where would you find a beaver that big?" grumbled the Humbug as his pencil
point snapped.
"I'm sure I don't know," he replied, "but if you did, you'd certainly know what
to do with him."
"That's absurd," objected Milo, whose head was spinning from all the numbers
and questions.
"That may be true," he acknowledged, "but it's completely accurate, and as long
as the answer is right, who cares if the question is wrong? If you want sense, you'll have to make it yourself."
The Phantom Tollbooth.
I 'sense' that there's some movement in the whole, wider, 'climate 'crisis' debate too. But who can make sense of the whole overly politicised, sadly divisive, tribalist debates? Hey-ho.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YtxH71xhiA
A really heavy shower of the dreaded graupel, which has now turned to snow, giving a nice covering of the garden and the road. And all this when the Met Office were forecasting a 10% chance of precipitation. Of course, you remember the one time that it does happen and not the nine times when it doesn't; but it still seems a bit surprising that such a heavy shower occurs with such a low probability forecast just one hour ahead.
About an inch here in the Western Peak. I made my first (and worst) snowman of the year in about ten seconds.
Dusting of wet snow here in wales, but enough to see where the rats have been overnight so I can move my traps. That’s useful.
About 15mm overnight, or just over half an inch for older readers, here in SE Staffordshire.
That's about as much as we get, as whichever way it comes from (apart from the east) it has to cross much higher ground to reach us. Lovely warm sun is melting it nicely, and most of it will be gone by sunset
No new snow (only a 1/2 inch anyway) for a couple of days in the North Pennines, just delightfully cold and sunny. More bright weather please :)
Weather forecasts for the north Pennines last night and this morning were forecasting "30 cms or more above 100m". Well, NO!! Not even close, and we're above 300m. Sure it's blustery, and a bit of drifting, but no big deal compared to standard snowy March weather we've had over the last 30 yrs here and considerably less than the worse we've experienced.
Is this another example of the apparent recent fixation with weather drama and crisis click-bait of the MSM? Or over-correction after the Michael Fish debacle? Maybe we're just lucky here at the moment.
What's it like elsewhere?
In Leicestershire: plenty of precipitation during the day, in solid form in the morning, but more liquid later. So around 2-4cm of snow on the ground by midday, but that depth has now reduced. I'm just hoping that the slush doesn't freeze overnight, as that would make conditions rather treacherous.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
A good 5 cm of snow overnight here in Ambleside. The surrounding fells that we can see from home look well covered - Todd Crag, Wansfell Pike, Wetherlam. Should be an interesting day.
We had a big dump (about 3-4 inches) yesterday morning but then it rained most of the afternoon and evening - I went for a very slushy run at about 5:30 yesterday.
Woke up this morning to white out again. Less than yesterday but still probably another 2 inches and still snowing. Roads are passable with care but the morning commute will not be fun for those who need to be physically somewhere. My wife's school is at one of the highest points in area and will be closed. It was a problem getting there yesterday for most of the staff but today will be worse.
There was a thin covering of snow in Cov yesterday... a rare jaunt into the office and it was chaos on the M6 with two lanes closed due to an accident, and Cruffts on at the NEC, coupled with poor visibility.
Rain had washed most of it away by last night.
Woke up to a decent covering this morning, not been outside but looks a couple of inches.
25cm fallen onto dustbin in Haworth, drifts much deeper.
4 to 5 inches at the most here, but obviously drifted over night and in places is up to a couple of feet or so deep. But with bright sunshine and glorious blue skies I reckon those lucky enough to go skiing at Yadmoss today will have a grand day out.
5 or 6 inches fell yesterday afternoon/evening which made for a tough RATRun with drifts being much deeper. Snowed heavily overnight and now 9 to 10 inches deep on top of walls/hedges and over waist high drifts in places which made for a slow dog walk this morning. It must have been windy at some time in the night as some fields have patches with hardly any snow at all.
Blue sky and warm sunshine now causing the snow to melt like the clappers.
Light dusting on the tops here in Monmouthshire. Nothing at ground level. F-in' cold though!
Most pleasant sunny day here, dusting of snow left on the tops but no more.
Indulged in first short ride on road bike.
Cold now but off got few days off fishing tomorrow, has to be done !
Came out of the Rheged cinema yesterday evening at 6:30 pm (saw Napoleon on t'big screen. I'd give it 4 stars) into a billowing snowy blizzard, with it settling on the ground. Drive back over the Pennines from Brough to Teesdale was very doable, despite the B-road being covered . Woke this morning to half an inch and had to drive over into Weardale, then to Alston, and back via Yad Moss. Again, all very doable with winter tyres and probably ok on summers if driven slowly. Really nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Can't believe the hysteria in the media.
None in Mid Wales, even on Cadair. Very cold though with a bitter east wind.
Nearly lost the car on the ice going to see Napoleon in Sheffield. Half an inch of snow overnight, looks lovely. I'm afraid the film wasn't my cup of tea, would struggle to give it a one star rating. Cinema was quite full for a change and other seemed to like it.
25 - 30 centimetres of snow as of now here in Ambleside - roads are gridlocked, a school in Hawkshead and Ambleside Parish Centre are opening for those who cannot get home.
It is forecast to continue snowing until early tomorrow morning.
Drove over to Ravenstonedale this morning to tend to some horses, and the ground was lightly covered with snow and the air very cold (-5).
By about 3:00 pm it started to fall in large flakes and to lay thickly. It must have been interesting driving home for some of the Widlboar fell racers.
Driving back over the B6276 road from Brough, the road was completely obscured and about an inch deep already and snow falling heavily. I was completely amazed to see a bloke in a BMW saloon, obviously shod with low profile summer tyres, trying to get over to Teesdale. I followed behind him at a safe distance watching the rear-wheel drive car slip and slide from one side of the road to the next, He made it as far as the hill up to Blackmoor Gate, before sliding into the grassy verge. No damage, but the car was stranded. He declined an offer of a lift back to Brough. Hope he had plenty of warm gear!
Still no snow in Mid Wales, but -7 this morning on the way to Dolgellau parkrun. Wish I’d remembered my Ron Hills, it was bloody cool in shorts.
No snow here in Wales further south than Matt, couldn't even spot any on Bannau Brycheiniog to the south yesterday.
Raining today.
That's surprising as I woke up to 20mm of snow here, (although it's largely melted now), and we're surrounded by much higher ground on three sides. The prevailing wind is normally from South Wales, so for us to get anything you normally get a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by molehill
Here I'm Monmouthshire we've had heavy frosts but no sign of snow.
We had about 3 inches overnight Saturday/Sunday. Made a few giant snowballs. It's raining now. :(