cheers Geoff, I did indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffB
Printable View
cheers Geoff, I did indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffB
We appear to have two trains of thought.
One isolate and protect
One return to normal
From the figures given above the return to normal looks the best option. But I do take on board that loved ones will be lost and a lot of people lost to it
Can anyone convince me otherwise with facts and figures?
It's not necessarily facts and figures Stagger, but a few things.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
The first wave has clearly swept through most of the country and infected a reasonable proportion. Most of the fatalities have been in groups identified by Wheeze and others.
They can be shielded going forward.
So even a full on second wave could not take out the numbers the first one did all other things being equal if those vulnerable are shielded the caveat being that the virus doesn't mutate to a more potent form.
For anyone now being infected and getting to the point of hospitalisation, treatments have been developed that mean the recovery rate is much better than it was in March/April and they will continue to find new ways of handling the virus even without a vaccine.
Social practices have changed and even if we gave the green light to everyone tomorrow, everyone will be behaving differently. Rate of spread will be less if distancing, hand washing, face coverings... have any effect.
Finally we have a large proportion of the population either with an inherent immunity, or an acquired immunity, so there will be at least some natural barrier reducing the effect of the any second wave.
We can all relax. The Russkies have got it sorted with a vaccine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718
We all know they've invested a lot in drug research over the years - ahem.
Can someone please tell me when there has been a significant period with no covid deaths that would indicate that the first wave was over?. As I seem to ha missed it and I can't understand why folk are banging on about a second wave before the first is even behind us.
Depends on your definition of "significant", but look at Scotland and Wales.Quote:
Can someone please tell me when there has been a significant period with no covid deaths that would indicate that the first wave was over?
England, however.......
Don’t you mean “an extrapolation about what you think you have learnt from the first wave”. It’s definitely not a “we”. And have you asked your daughter and her husband for their thoughts on your let the virus run rampant grand idea??Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
Not no deaths but certainly very few. The latest weekly ONS bulletin came out yesterday, which gives causes of death mentioned on the death certificate. In the week ending 31st July, there were 183 deaths involving Covid in England, which is 2.2% of all deaths. In Wales there were 10 deaths - 1.9% of the total. For comparison purposes 12.5% in England and Wales included Influenza and Pneumonia (summer flu) on their death certificates.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnK
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ding31july2020
The figures have almost certainly dropped since. The daily Covid death totals in NHS England hospitals is now down to single figures.
Yeah for sure deaths are right down and new cases, although increasing a bit, still have to be viewed relative to the number of tests being done. And most of the economy has now re-opened and, being asked to wear masks aside, and with localised lockdowns as and when needed, I think we’re doing okay now. That’s though a really really really good explanation as to why Wheeze’s complete change of tactics would be completely daft, ridiculously high risk with a very high chance of things going completely tits up againQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I take this quote from a fund manager diary this week, only a small part of his weekly report but this bit on New Zealand.
More seriously for all of us as we reopen are the consequences of staying safe. New Zealand has managed to contain the virus and is regarded by many as a model of good government. News from a Diary reader based there highlights the challenges that are now faced. The country is in recession, retail space vacancies continue to rise, the pain is spreading to hotels, car rentals, catering and leisure. Pay cuts are a fact of life. The borders are closed to foreigners and even returning Kiwis are only allowed back with an appointment. Quarantine hotels are operating at full capacity.
Given that an estimated one million New Zealanders live elsewhere in the world, those wanting to return home could be in for a long wait. What they will do when they get there isn’t clear. Against the background of economic gloom, house prices are rising both because of demand and cheap mortgages. At some stage every country will need to strike a balance between health and safety and economic reality. Investors will be kept busy repricing the world as the consensus settles on the answer.
The last part about a balance of H&S and economic reality is what we shall have to face and I think, what Wheeze is on about, we cannot lock ourselves away for ever, but how best to go about unlocking ourselves. I keep harking back to the centuries of TB which was an accepted fact of life - a lot of people caught it, many died and some lived. That may be the sort of mindset we have to adopt in the future if no workable vaccine appears.
And the reason we’re not doing that molehill is because hospitals get overwhelmed with covid cases, their staff get infected, can’t work and the hospitals get even more overwhelmed. The herd immunity plan has been shelved here based mainly on that. I appreciate that Sweden this far has fared quite well on a sensible social distancing plan but their population is much thinner on the ground than the U.K., outside of Helsinki, their general population are much much more likely to respect and follow the rules and, even then, they’re not out of the woods yet by a long stretch either
Helsinki? When I went there last year it was still in Finland.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
Helsinki?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
I think you mean Stockholm.;)
This is an interesting article by a Swedish doctor. He does think they're out of the woods. Time will tell.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-s-perspective
Ok so it appears that the first wave is leveling out so surely all our efforts should be focused on containing that leveling out and hopefully controling it and avoiding a resurgence rather banging on about a second wave Which we can't have before the first wave is over by which time there may be some answers as to what we are dealing with as it is still all conjecture and speculation. Let's get on with life using the common sense approach rather than panic measures.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Haha in my defense we've been watching a Nordic noire crime series on Netflix, Bordertown, which is based in Finland. Stockholm yes 🙄
Striking a balance is not necessarily the same as going back to how we were and letting covid run riot. I think the world has already learnt a lot from this pandemic and how to control situations and local outbreaks better, we will learn even more every week that goes by.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
Happy as I am sitting here doing nothing, I am now appreciating that somehow the country and world will need to function again - or starve - because people cannot be supported to do nothing for ever.
But that is exactly where we’re now at - we’re carefully getting on with things, carefully getting out and carefully striking a balance
Indeed a Prof from Reading Uni has just been on discussing the fact that Flu has been ahead of Covid as cause of death for around 2 months and the gap is widening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Interesting that the policies in place for managing COVID should be effective against flu.
I'm awaiting calls for a flu lockdown.
I was just about to post that too Muddy Dog, a very interesting article by an ER doctor in Sweden, do please read it, it isn’t long.
https://app.spectator.co.uk/2020/08/...XS54Yp3eGgp-zY
On balance I am now for the Wheeze protocol of letting it spread amongst the young and fit and let each of the rest of us protect ourselves as we see fit. Maybe lots of teenagers will be a bit relieved that they don’t have to visit granny every Sunday, who knows, but they are taking one for the team.
Appears a reasonable logic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wetherby whaler
Wheeze is an old fashioned long practicing doctor. He is very knowledgeable and well read on this subject.
Old fashioned, moi?!:D
Interesting - so a long way from herd immunity:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2018...ibody-testing/
But that study only looks at people with antibodies. There have been a number of studies showing that some people with Covid don't develop anti-bodies but use T-cells to fight off the infection. I linked to an article yesterday from a Swedish doctor. He said:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
"The media have been proclaiming that only a small percentage of the population have antibodies, and therefore it is impossible that herd immunity has developed. Well, if herd immunity hasn’t developed, where are all the sick people? Why has the rate of infection dropped so precipitously? Considering that most people in Sweden are leading their lives normally now, not socially distancing, not wearing masks, there should still be high rates of infection.
The reason we test for antibodies is because it is easy and cheap. Antibodies are in fact not the body’s main defence against virus infections. T-cells are. But T-cells are harder to measure than antibodies, so we don’t really do it clinically. It is quite possible to have T-cells that are specific for Covid and thereby make you immune to the disease, without having any antibodies. Personally, I think this is what has happened. Everybody who works in the emergency room where I work has had the antibody test. Very few actually have antibodies. This is in spite of being exposed to huge numbers of infected people, including at the beginning of the pandemic, before we realised how widespread Covid was, and when no one was wearing protective equipment."
Obviously the author is talking about Sweden and they are probably further down the line than we are but still it is likely that a lot more have had the virus in this country than the Imperial Study estimates.
I'm not so sure as in the days pre lockdown we probably had it here earlier, had a more regular supply of new spreaders adding on almost a daily basis, and so by Mid March we could have been ahead of Sweden even if in % terms.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
and if lockdown has little - no effect..... then it's fair to sya we could be well ahead of Sweden.
Remember even our lockdown, whilst long, was "lockdown light" compared to some. In Spain kids weren't allowed to leave the home.
No exercise.
We really had limitations, but many still worked and most were still out and about.
Neither my daughter nor son-in-law who worked in A&E throughout the peak have developed antibodies. And yet they both think they must have had it, possibly asymptomatically. The antibody test is not looking like a very accurate way to assess immunity or infective history at all.
Antibodies were found in almost all (96%) of those who had a previous infection confirmed by a swab test. If T cell immune response was important without B cell help - antibodies - I would have expected that % to be rather lower. It is important to differentiate between immunity - implying resistance to infection - and immune response, where infection may still occur but may be milder/asymptomatic.
A Royal College of Physicians survey showed that 25% of doctors who replied had tested positive, despite most having had face to face contact with many cases. So, either PPE works, or test results are falsely low - probably a bit of both. But rising cases in many countries suggests that documented herd immunity has yet to be reached anywhere, apart from perhaps some boroughs in New York.
A Swedish immunologist has been quoted as saying that opening schools would help achieve herd immunity, and that opening schools would be safe - both cannot be right. Sweden has had 3 to 7 times the deaths of its neighbours per head of population.
Yeah and announced today nearly 300 staff have tested positive at an M&S sandwich making plant in Northampton. Another example of very little resistance to covid in the general communityQuote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
What I would be interested in knowing is how many of those 300 develope symptoms, felt ill, became ill, became seriously ill (hospital visit), very seriously ill, ages, general health etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
None of this is ever forthcoming, all we ever have from the news are basic figures of infection and deaths.
Because we did so little testing, especially in the key early months, ironically our identified case to fatality ratio is the worst in the world - see here -> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortalityQuote:
Originally Posted by molehill
Indeed because without this information, one cannot say "Another example of very little resistance to covid in the general community".Quote:
Originally Posted by molehill
In fact the resent spikes in Leicester, Blackburn etc would suggest there is significant resistance as there have been no increase in admissions.
Mike I'd be interested in where you get the 96% from. Have you a link?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
I just smell a rat that's all. Because in the early days of the virus, almost all tests were hospital admissions ie the very ill.
Those self diagnosing with mild symptoms stayed at home and didn't have a test.
If this 96% comes from this group of hospital admitted infections, they are the ones that would have most likely developed the anti-bodies.
Likewise I would expect the asymptomatic would be less likely to develop anti-bodies and the state hasn't got a clue who or how many asymptomatic ex Covid cases there are out there.
For example, I can well imagine if you did such an exercise on the Blackburn Spike cases, they would be unlikely to have developed anti-bodies.
Why do you keep poo pooing scientific studies witton and refer back to your own non-scientific hunches instead? I’d say that a likely 3.4 million people infected and a 0.9% fatality rate on the back of that seems quite a realistic idea of where we’re at
The problem appears to be that different medical institutions all have conflicting figures.
No-one knows what the truth is.
Everyone starts to make their own assumptions from the evidence they choose to believe.
It depends which scientific study you take. The Imperial report ignores the T-cell factor which other studies have said is important. This one for instance:Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid...sts-have-shown
Not quite the worst now. About 5,300 deaths have been removed from the UK figure as a result of the PHE review finally having been completed. I suspect a number of countries are fiddling their figures. Spain for example changed its methodology in May. They now only count deaths that actually happened and were registered on the previous day. Since many deaths are registered in the days (sometimes weeks) after, this in clearly under reporting their Covid death count.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
Yeah agreed. We’re definitely not now the worst but are probably still in the top five or there aboutsQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I for one really hope the T cell resistance is a big thing but, whilst we don’t know this yet and have no way yet of finding out, it’s not something that a best practise can be based on. The one good thing nowadays is that hospital cases and deaths are still well down which maybe gives some hope that perhaps the covid strain is weakening a bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
All the same I still think the way we are doing things now (ignoring the shit show earlier in the year obviously) is the best way to proceed. Social distancing, masks on in shops, gradually open things up, work from home if you can and apply local lockdowns (or international ones) to fire fight. Oh and fining illegal rave and gathering organisers too
wasn't that PHE revision as a result of a scientific study that we discussed on here many weeks ago and some were poo pooing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
:rolleyes:
By the way, it's hard to even poo poo or support an academic study, unless you can actually have access to it, which is what I asked for.
Interesting on the Northampton plant. They were all wearing full PPE including masks.
Perhaps not in the canteen or as they left though 🤔Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park