Interesting news about Leicester and it’s perhaps unnecessary lockdown. They had 1,336 cases in July but only 7 hospital admissions for covid-19
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Interesting news about Leicester and it’s perhaps unnecessary lockdown. They had 1,336 cases in July but only 7 hospital admissions for covid-19
I agree that it's difficult to put a figure on the level of T cell resistance as it is not as straightforward to test for as antibodies. My point in replying to Mike was that the Imperial Study made an estimate of total infections in the UK based entirely on antibody prevalence. Other scientific studies would dispute that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
We will have a much better idea after the winter. Sweden provides a fascinating case study. Yes they've had more deaths than their neighbours but what will happen this winter. Will they avoid the feared second wave while other countries succumb? The Swedish doctor in the article I linked to said that he didn't think the final death tally would be above 7,000. If he turns out to be right then Sweden has now come close to herd immunity despite antibody prevalence being low. But if it climbs much greater than 7,000 he will have been wrong. We will see.
Are you suggesting that PPE doesn't work, so we might as well not bother?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Just a personal observation on the wearing of face coverings.
Last week I was in Wales where the wearing of face coverings is not compulsory in shops and although a few people we wearing them everyone seem to be keeping a sensible distance both in and outside.
This week back in England, where the face covering is compulsory in shops, more people seem to be also wearing them outside. However, the social/sensible distancing seems to have gone out of the window.
It is as if when people are wearing face coverings they feel as if they are safe.
Of the two different policies I certainly felt safer in Wales and not wearing a face covering.
I wish someone would tell me where the illegal raves are. At the ones I remember from c1990, when not futilely driving in a convoy from service station to service station along the M62, masks were quite the fashion. I think it was something to do with Vicks inhaler. Lots of lads with no tops on and an industrial mask or a ski mask. Anyway.
A fellow raver!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Wetherby whaler
Although i was slightly after your time... i didn't get into the music until around 1998, and my first rave was in 2000 (United Dance at Bagleys, Kings Cross)... Helter Skelter, One Nation, Slammin Vinyl, Hardcore Heaven.... Sanctuary Milton Keynes, Bagleys, Que Club, Long Marston Airfield...
And of course in Cov we had the Edge/Eclipse which in the 90's was the first legal venue in the UK...
When the Sanctuary shut down in 2004 and became part of the Ikea/Football Stadium complex, then places like Bagleys/Que Club started to disappear, took the heart out of it for me.
I was never into drugs or anything, but the music of the late 90's/early 2000's was superb. Lots of people in that era had been brought up on Britpop/Oasis/Blur... but in the schools round here it was old rave-tapes that were passed around the playgrounds and common-rooms...
If, like me, you are in the 60-69 age group, and male, this will cheer you up: you are 2.6 times more likely to die if you get Coronavirus than women in the same age group. Thank you evolution!
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...jbs_etoc_email
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2018...ibody-testing/Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Bloomin' eck Mike. Reading your daily training/permitted exercise posts I'd assume you were a whippersnapper. Well that's really hardcore for a baby boomer- Chapeau! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...shire-53773646Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
Good results to say they all didn't take it seriously.
So that's obviously a good thing, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
I'm confused by all of this posturing. Lockdown bad.
Breaking lockdown bad.
What do you think?
Is it acceptable for an elected person to have a BBQ in lock down?
Interested to hear your opinion?
Not sure he has one Trev. Just seems to pick away at others that do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
That appears to be a theme on here these days.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Ta - I do me best - dead slow mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
If it's OK for Dominic Cummings, it should be ok for everyone else, yes?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Oh no! He's not elected! Must be one of those unelected bureaucrats we're all so keen to get rid of.....
Both broke the rules Both should face the consequences.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
Too many people now apologise for getting caught and get away with it.
But Cummings never did apologise, and that's what angered so many peopleQuote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Don't let the facts get in the way of a good argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marco
Ha ha ha good-un Dave.
Think if you read my piece I did say they were both guilty.
Raves,
Last minute holidays to France.
BBQs
Football night clubs or trips to Spain.
Beach trips
Don't think everyone is following the guidelines as they were intended?
Was I really the only one taking more than one form of exercise a day from the get-go then? Having a back gate that backs onto fields and footpaths helped. I was top virtue signaller from the front door mind you and after dark was a different matter again, love an evening constitutional.
I'm sure when reports by such as Prof Heneghan have been put forward I've had "ah but it hasn't been peer reviewed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
But nevermind, peer review is problematic in itself.
The link is actually to an article, not the report, and Justine Alford's link to the findings is a Page not Found.
A breakdown of Covid by postcode would be useful
Also infection by age group and death by age group.
Or would that prove to many points?
There’s loads of information available - see https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...ses-and-deathsQuote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
It’s not at a small enough level or capable of cross referencing though. Apparently there have been a total of three deaths in my postcode since the start of the pandemic but there is no age data on them or when they died. The fact that nobody on our very active, curtain twitching social media sites mentioned them suggests that they were maybe very aged residents of one or more of our many local care homes, perhaps with no local connections.
Nowt around by me.
Hmm wonder how safe i am.
I fail to see how people who don't wear face coverings in shops still get served.
No mask no entry.
They don't do drug tests at the door either, which is just as well in Mill Hill.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
The shops aren't the enforcers of the law, rules, regs or guidelines.
But they will quite happily ask for ID when buying cigarettes or alcohol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
On a more positive note, although cases being identified nowadays have been ticking up for a few weeks now, deaths are still going down :)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfsKcG5W...jpg&name=large
can you see that massive dip in cases just before lockdown that means that it was the wrong thing to do?
No, me neither.
But the law is framed to make the shop the criminal in that case.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfella
Interestingly you can't see a massive dip in cases prior to lockdown, because they were testing diddly-squat and only then in a hospital situation.
No one knows how many were exposed in the general population by Mid March.
What you can see though are the peak deaths.
From exposure, through symptoms, hospitalisation and then passing away there is a 3-4 week period, perhaps even longer.
3 weeks would put peak infection at somewhere around 10th - 15th March.
Good point. Does the law need changing to make it the shop keepers problem?
and, had it not been for lockdown, that number would have kept on climbing....Quote:
3 weeks would put peak infection at somewhere around 10th - 15th March.
My take on the whole face covering thing is that it's a waste of time. I wear my buff but what good it serves I believe is nothing more than a security blanket type effect.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfella
I don't think the law needs changing. It's a temporary measure and even though I disagree with it, if the Govt and their advisors are right, a partial take up of 75% will have a knock on reduction in the rate of spread. That is what they are after.
The number of cases was already dropping without lockdown so there is no reason why it would start climbing again?
It certainly wasn't an inevitability, as Sweden demonstrates.
The graph could be transposed over the UK one and there'd be little difference.
Attachment 8798
Sweden population: 10.2 m
UK population: 66.6m
Sweden population density:25/km2
UK population density: 275/km2
Sweden largest city population: 1.5m
UK largest city population: 8.9m
Despite the obvious differences between Sweden and the UK, like us having 10 times the population density, there's really no evidence, even if cases dropped in the week before lockdown, that lockdown was pointless. Because lockdown did, in fact happen. So the idea that "just letting it run its course" would have the same outcome is just speculation, with support for the argument coming from a single country which bears little resemblance to the UK.
Look at the rest of the world, however and things look a little different.
Do you really think that allowing life to go on as normal would have resulted in fewer deaths?
I don't normally respond to you as I see you as a nit-picker. You tend to pick at the opinions of others, rather than putting any of your own out there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
If I'm doing you a disservice, I apologise, but that is the perception I have on these political issues.
You make a good point on population density, I think often raised on here by Oracle to explain why we were being so affected several months ago.
It's a fair point, but doesn't explain it away because you can compare some of the built up areas in Sweden like Stockholm and we had some hotspots early on like the Cartmel penninsula.
You have "just letting it run its course" in quotes, but I'm not clear if you are quoting someone directly or not.
Sweden didn't let it ""just letting it run its course" but it used light-touch measures and advise, rather than our middle way, or the Spanish heavy hand.
I never said it would have had the same outcome, but I did draw attention to the outcomes which are remarkably similar in profile.
It's speculation that without lockdown also.
I don't know many that would just have let it run it's course, but most do query the methods used to manage the pandemic.
For example, I said back before we even had lockdown, that I expected an extended Easter school closure, perhaps adding 1 week at each end to make a 4-5 week closure.
Looking at the exam fiasco, we could have done that, and at the very least got the GCSE and A level exam students back in and avoided the shambles of the last week or so.