Coronavirus

Some relevant stuff here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Deaths per 100,000 of population

UK = 62
Sweden = 57
US = 52
Finland = 6
Norway = 5
Denmark = 11

So Sweden are broadly on the same scale as us despite their population density

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

Look at the rest of the world, however and things look a little different.
Do you really think that allowing life to go on as normal would have resulted in fewer deaths?

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I'll look at this separately or it will be a very long post.

The rest of the world doesn't look that different if you take out the Far East.

Western Europe have all followed very similar profiles.

But it's difficult to read, mostly because the level of spread in all of these countries pre lockdown is unknown.
Testing was so limited in all except Germany.

Your final sentence - I take it you mean allowing life to go on as normal back in March?

I wouldn't have had life as "normal".

We had handwashing.
We had social distancing - I think we should have had called it "physical distancing" but in general it was the right thing to do for a period.
I think a precautionary light lockdown was OK, I think we should be out of it almost completely now.

Some might question that.

Were some of these unfortunate deaths just brought forward a little? Death rates in care homes are down below trend, deaths in home are up despite excess deaths being down.

It's hard to assess at the moment, but if lockdown has saved people (not convinced it has) it almost certainly has cost people their lives.
It is also costing many their livelihoods and what will the outcome of that be?

Interesting to note is that whilst now weekly excess death rate is below trend, it is also below trend in care homes, but it is above trend in the home.

Maybe check this out.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...itain/june2020

The consequences of lockdown and not yet fully understood.

My daughter (2nd year doctorate in Psychology) would have been seeing people 2-3 days a week for mental health issues. She's seen no one since March 13th and has finally been told she can go back on to a placement from October, date yet to be confirmed.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....6-d55821f27e78
Now we know what Oracle is doing with his time.....

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Originally Posted by biaraV2

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....6-d55821f27e78
Now we know what Oracle is doing with his time.....

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Bugger! It's behind a paywall.
What's the jist?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ations-FT.html
Try this one Dave....

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Originally Posted by biaraV2

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...ations-FT.html
Try this one Dave....

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Ha! Nice one 😃

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I think a precautionary light lockdown was OK, I think we should be out of it almost completely now.

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To take another country which is entirely different to ours: New Zealand. Population 4.9m with a density of 15/km2: even less than Sweden.

BUT it's held up as a success because they eliminated the virus. How? Lockdown.

Two papers (there are others and it's difficult to find credible opinion to the contrary) here and here suggest that early and aggressive lockdown was the key. They took the opposite approach to the majority of countries and have had the most success. But yes, like Sweden, they're nothing like the UK.....

However, something to think about: Johnson/Cummings initially were pro-herd immunity or a very light lockdown along the lines you suggest. They're libertarians at heart and all through this they've been unwilling to put measures in place and unwilling to enforce them once they were in place. I remember seeing him physically recoil at the suggestion that the police might be involved in enforcing lockdown measures! BUT something spooked them and they went for lockdown. So what was that? Perhaps they listened to the immunologists/WHO et al. Perhaps, when it boiled down to it, faced with the choice of crashing the economy or having half a million (and that's what they were predicting, more or less, right or wrong, at the time) dead on your hands, they couldn't face being responsible that sort of carnage. It might turn out that the predictions were wrong (they seem to be off, it's a matter of by how much) but faced with the figures at the time, I think lockdown seemed the only answer. It also seems to have provided a useful source of profit for Johnsons/Cummings friends, the disaster capitalists.

But it seems to have worked. More or less. And it would have worked better with an actual, operative, track and trace system during the height of infections (look at China), perhaps meaning that a lighter lockdown might have been possible.

But this is all hypotheticals. Perhaps the truth will come out in the Public Enquiry. I'm not holding my breath.

I have a bit of a worry about New Zealand, much as I admire JA as we are all contracted to do. It can’t isolate from the world forever and sooner or later its own vulnerable population element is going to come into contact with this virus, unless a vaccine or treatment is found. And then the story might be quite similar to what we have seen in Europe. On that point, I think our own abysmal performance may in part be due to the fact that the NHS has in past years been fantastic in keeping very old, ill, obese and vulnerable people alive. So when something out of left field comes along, we had a larger set of easy targets, as it were.

"we had a larger set of easy targets, as it were."

And I think the negative excess deaths at the moment probably shows that they're the ones who have, sadly, been picked off by the virus. When herd immunity was first mooted, it was described as a cull....seems to have happened anyway, to a degree, which rather gives the lie to the whole idea....

Would it be fair to say that within the majority of Northern Towns on lockdown its the town centre area (higher populated) where the most virus casualties occur?

The out lying villages appear to be much safer places I'm thinking.

Indeed, and looking at the specific postcode areas, I don’t think that pub closures would be all that relevant. Some of the high risk postcodes in Leeds that I know well don’t have any pubs left, sadly.

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

To take another country which is entirely different to ours: New Zealand. Population 4.9m with a density of 15/km2: even less than Sweden.

BUT it's held up as a success because they eliminated the virus. How? Lockdown.

Two papers (there are others and it's difficult to find credible opinion to the contrary) here and here suggest that early and aggressive lockdown was the key. They took the opposite approach to the majority of countries and have had the most success. But yes, like Sweden, they're nothing like the UK.....

However, something to think about: Johnson/Cummings initially were pro-herd immunity or a very light lockdown along the lines you suggest. They're libertarians at heart and all through this they've been unwilling to put measures in place and unwilling to enforce them once they were in place. I remember seeing him physically recoil at the suggestion that the police might be involved in enforcing lockdown measures! BUT something spooked them and they went for lockdown. So what was that? Perhaps they listened to the immunologists/WHO et al. Perhaps, when it boiled down to it, faced with the choice of crashing the economy or having half a million (and that's what they were predicting, more or less, right or wrong, at the time) dead on your hands, they couldn't face being responsible that sort of carnage. It might turn out that the predictions were wrong (they seem to be off, it's a matter of by how much) but faced with the figures at the time, I think lockdown seemed the only answer. It also seems to have provided a useful source of profit for Johnsons/Cummings friends, the disaster capitalists.

But it seems to have worked. More or less. And it would have worked better with an actual, operative, track and trace system during the height of infections (look at China), perhaps meaning that a lighter lockdown might have been possible.

But this is all hypotheticals. Perhaps the truth will come out in the Public Enquiry. I'm not holding my breath.

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New Zealand locked down later than the UK on 25th March. Ours was announced on the evening of the 23rd March. Belgium, which has the worst Covid death rate in the world went into a very strict lockdown on 18th March. So yes the very different nature of New Zealand is the main reason they did better than the UK and Belgium and not lockdown. Of course New Zealand did enforce an early quarantine from other countries which we failed to do. So that will have helped them.

All the countries that were lauded initially for apparently eliminating the virus have had a reoccurrence since to a greater or lesser extent. And that now includes New Zealand.

I don’t think the Government had any choice but to go into lockdown given the lack of sufficient testing. But knowing what we know now I don’t think we should do it again. There is already a looming catastrophe in terms of both the economy and other neglected health issues like cancer. This will probably end up killing far more than Covid.

Largely agree with your last paragraph Muddy. The economy is screwed and will be for a while. No amount of Monday to Wednesday half price dinners is going to fix it

"Belgium, which has the worst Covid death rate in the world"

It's well established that Belgium counts differently, giving high fatality numbers. Like we used to do, but worse. They even count suspected cases as definite.

The return in NZ is what, a handful of cases? Which is inevitable, but not uncontrollable. And doesn't mean that lockdown doesn't work, it's more about how the unlocking is managed.

And yes, the economy has suffered. But over 40,000 people have died. And yes, more will continue to do so due to pressure on the NHS and reluctance to come forward. But, given the information available at the time, I think it's telling that even Johnson/Cummings went for lockdown. Because it was the lesser of two evils.

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

"Belgium, which has the worst Covid death rate in the world"

It's well established that Belgium counts differently, giving high fatality numbers. Like we used to do, but worse. They even count suspected cases as definite.

The return in NZ is what, a handful of cases? Which is inevitable, but not uncontrollable. And doesn't mean that lockdown doesn't work, it's more about how the unlocking is managed.

And yes, the economy has suffered. But over 40,000 people have died. And yes, more will continue to do so due to pressure on the NHS and reluctance to come forward. But, given the information available at the time, I think it's telling that even Johnson/Cummings went for lockdown. Because it was the lesser of two evils.

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Counting suspected cases is how the ONS comes to its figures (if Covid is mentioned on the death certificate) or certainly did before tests became more widespread. I’d be interested to know if Belgium adopted the PHE policy of counting deaths as Covid if they’d ever been infected. It still seems incredible.

As you say in New Zealand it’s a handful of cases - I read that they’ve got about 70 active cases. But yet Auckland has gone back into lockdown again. Why? They can’t eliminate the virus. But they can hammer their economy. If any country was well placed to try the Swedish experiment without things get out of hand I would have thought it was New Zealand.

We need some perspective about Covid. We lose 450 people a day to cancer. Oncologists are desperate at the current situation, they fear a disaster because of the people not being treated and those not being diagnosed. Many more people are losing their lives to summer flu than Covid at the moment.

As I said before, I accept lockdown had to happen when it did but I suspect it went on for too long. It shouldn’t be repeated.

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Originally Posted by Wetherby whaler

I have a bit of a worry about New Zealand, much as I admire JA as we are all contracted to do. It can’t isolate from the world forever and sooner or later its own vulnerable population element is going to come into contact with this virus, unless a vaccine or treatment is found. And then the story might be quite similar to what we have seen in Europe. On that point, I think our own abysmal performance may in part be due to the fact that the NHS has in past years been fantastic in keeping very old, ill, obese and vulnerable people alive. So when something out of left field comes along, we had a larger set of easy targets, as it were.

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JA. Virtue signaller par excellence

New Zealand is a cul-de-sac.
I took the comments about comparison with Sweden, but at least it's linked to the global transport infrastructure.

Japan seems to have done OK and it didn't have a lockdown, it has an ageing population, and it is densely populated. However it is Far East so I am cautious to make comparisons.
They followed an advisory path, asking folk to avoid closed places, crowded places and close-contact settings.

"The Japan conundrum is just the fact that if you don't test for it, you're not going to find a lot of cases," Jason Kindrachuk, Professor of viral pathogenesis at the University of Manitoba.

Ironic, hardly any testing, just over 1000 deaths to date. The inference by the prof is that of course it has swept through Japan, they just don't realise that.
So why only the 1000 deaths?

The Ferguson report seems to have been the real clincher for Government policy. I'm not sure if it was just Johnson and his team, the whole of SAGE according to the minutes of meetings seemed to be on board with the light touch measures up to the week commencing 16th March.

Talk of the lesser of two evils, well the Ferguson one is now totally discredited and as Sweden is the only place that has taken the alleged greater of two evils it's the only evidence out there.

The total deaths figure is the issue and if you look at the link there is some interesting analysis taken from ONS data.
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/08/1...topher-bowyer/

England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid care home deaths. ONS data.
This bar graph shows the rise, but interestingly that rise is also in NON-COVID deaths and for most of the period the non Covid excess deaths were ahead of the COVID deaths.

So the excess death rate that we put down to COVID is also down to other factors. Probably COVID related ones, perhaps people just being left to die in the home because the hospital wouldn't take them.

England and Wales weekly Covid and non-Covid deaths at home. ONS data.

This is appalling. In every week since week 11, we have had excess deaths at home, in some weeks double the 5 year average and only a fraction down to Covid.

Someone commented a while ago on another forum that if a care home attributed a death to Covid, they could claim £14k for a deep clean. I have no idea if this is true or not, but what a perverse incentive.

Meanwhile, Singaporean scientists believe that the virus has mutated to be more infectious/virulent but less lethal. So more of us get it but far fewer seriously or die. That would be good,

Its so true to form that the current government are trying to pass some blame for their "less than ideal" covid strategy, and the recent covid caused exam debacle, on Public Health England and Ofqual respectively. According to the Times, the government appeared completely unaware (until June) that they have always had direct control over Public Health England and, regarding the algorithm, the Education secretary Gavin Williamson actually asked Ofqual to develop it for exams in March, even though Ofqual publicly explained the trade offs that had to be made in doing this algorithm in June, with the key problems of this all identified by the Education Select committee in July. They just keep on promising 'world beating', delivering anything but and then trying to infer blame on anyone other than themselves for their own crapness. I get the feeling that the tories might soon start losing patience with Boris and Dominic :)

Boris will be gone by next summer

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I’d be interested to know if Belgium adopted the PHE policy of counting deaths as Covid if they’d ever been infected. It still seems incredible.

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News stories here and here.


Japan: different culture, including regular mask wearing. No need for a lockdown as people did what they were told. Even so, large increase in cases in mid-March and effective "lockdown" which people obeyed without needing to enforce. Unlike here.

New Zealand: if it's not linked to the global transport infrastructure how do 4 million tourists get there every year?

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https://hectordrummond.com/2020/08/1...topher-bowyer/

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shows a lot of pretty graphs. Sorry, but I'm not going to take seriously someone whose blog includes a section on "Health Fascism". There's a comment about excess deaths now being below the average. Which could be accounted for by the vulnerable having already succumbed to corona: if the elderly/vulnerable died because of the virus, they're not going to die again of natural causes a few weeks later.

I'll leave you be. It's quite tedious having made an effort with someone who won't take seriously info put together from ONS data, but quite happy to use gossip about what Johnson or Cummings may or may not have considered behind the scenes and at the same times defends the use of New Zealand as an example of good practice despite having previously acknowledged it's "entirely different to ours".

4 million tourists? Multiply that by 10 for the UK for starters. I think you'll find international business travel is of even higher proportion and they don't have much in terms of transitioning travellers.
It's akin to comparing Bristol with Penzance.

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Originally Posted by Derby Tup

Boris will be gone by next summer

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Possibly but only to be replaced by another knob!!!

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defends the use of New Zealand as an example of good practice despite having previously acknowledged it's "entirely different to ours".

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I was merely pointing out the way things have gone. You seem to have taken exception to it. I also pointed to Belgium, Japan and Sweden. All different countries, all different results of various approaches to lockdowns. I was responding to your use of Sweden as a comparison with the UK. I haven't said that any of them is better or worse than the other, just that comparisons are very difficult to make.

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who won't take seriously info put together from ONS data,

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it's called being critical.
The first paragraph of the article says "the use of this data to make graphs is not an endorsement of the accuracy of the data"!
Hector Drummond writes for Conservative Woman and has repeatedly called C19 "bad flu", lockdown "house arrest" and death rate figures "fiction".
So no, I'm not going to take anything he publishes on his blog at face value.

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

Hector Drummond writes for Conservative Woman and has repeadedly called C19 "bad flu", lockdown "house arrest" and death rate figures "fiction".
So no, I'm not going to take anyhthing he publishes on his blog at face value.

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Some of the death rate figures churned out by PHE until modified recently were fiction.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

Some of the death rate figures churned out by PHE until modified recently were fiction.

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I had a few disagreements with Hector on Twitter back in the early stages, but when I look back he was pretty much bang on.

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Hector on Twitter

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It's a great alternative to the Daily Mail.

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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole

It's a great alternative to the Daily Mail.

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I'm sure you would know better than I would

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I'm sure you would know better than I would

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Jeez.

Bickering just clouds understanding. Please....no more.

Some of us appreciate your post's WP, even when not always agreeing with them.

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Originally Posted by Llani Boy

Some of us appreciate your post's WP, even when not always agreeing with them.

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Fully agree.

You make some excellent points that are backed up by facts and stats.

Stick true to your word and beliefs Richard.

And keep posting them.

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Originally Posted by Stagger

Fully agree.

You make some excellent points that are backed up by facts and stats.

Stick true to your word and beliefs Richard.

And keep posting them.

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Spot on Stagger.

Sweden not looking so clever....
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKCN25F1YL

"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear". (George Orwell).

That works both (or multiple) ways of course.

Let's ensure that the forum's pub remains a place where diversity of thought and its expression remains encouraged and possible. Just saying :D

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Originally Posted by Mossdog

"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear"

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You missed the bit where George Orwell added: “Unless of course you’re Oracle or Alwaysinjured” 🧐😊

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

You missed the bit where George Orwell added: “Unless of course you’re Oracle or Alwaysinjured” 🧐😊

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I'm intrigued how the Forum legend of Alwaysinjured resonates even today amongst relative forum newcomers :rolleyes:

As a side note to this thread, I read in the Letters Section of yesterday's Teesdale Mercury, a complaint from a Mrs Hay from Barningham on the challenges of social distancing on the pavements of Barnard Castle. Apparently, a particular "hazard" relates to the "increase in visitors, many of whom find it necessary to gather outside Specsavers to take selfies". Ah, the cummings and goings of our little market town will never be quite the same again :D