You can be a watcher and not a joiner inner you know 😊Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
(And for all Mike’s super duper long windedness at least he is a fell runner)
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You can be a watcher and not a joiner inner you know 😊Quote:
Originally Posted by Mossdog
(And for all Mike’s super duper long windedness at least he is a fell runner)
Long windedness?!
Alwaysinjured = Mike Bate :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
He seems to be more of a Facebook botherer nowadays.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellbeast
The big positive about 4 days away fishing, on my own, no internet access stuff, is coming home and finding nothing has changed.
4 days of being rained on, bitten by bugs, sweating buckets, catching little and eating toasted sarnies, bliss compared to more covid discussions and accusations.
Meanwhile
Attachment 8800
Nice to see you citing sources, like you always complain about other people not doing.
so, no C-19 deaths on 19th August, huh?
Seven since, though, according to NHS England data.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ulA8u05Z-Q
Rumblings in France - also taking a pop at Ferguson.
It takes a lot to speak out against the prevailing zeitgeist (ask me how I know!). Whoever he is, that Prof has taken a risk with his career to put the case the way he does. But its vital that such views and opinions are put into the mix if we are ever to formulate a realistic way out of this fix. Anyway, we are now facing the appropriate test of the second wave theory. He we are at the start of autumn, sending the kids back to school and ending furlough. Three risk factors for setting off a second wave. Lets see where we are in a month.
By the way, anyone find any evidence for a spike in deaths after the BLM rallies in London and elsewhere?
I see in France there is an outbreak linked to a nudist resort and the regional health authority have urged people to wear face masks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
Made me chuckle anyway 😂.
It does make you wonder :DQuote:
Originally Posted by molehill
https://www.freepressjournal.in/worl...k-as-underwear
Indeed...but what exactly?:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
where to pin my race number next time :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
When 91% of "neighbourhoods" haven't had a case of COVID reported in 4 weeks.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...covid-22568255
it makes you wonder why there are many entities acting as if we were still in March/April.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...struggled.html
I cam imagine some of our forumites have already read the 2nd piece.
Over 1,000 new positive tests a day on average, and rising slowly but surely - the true number of new cases will be several times this. "Only" 4 deaths announced today, but these are only the deaths within 28 days, and it is a Monday - the true total is now jolly hard to find. But it has not gone away - it is mainly those under 35 becoming infected now, hence the low death rate, but it will leak into the older and more vulnerable groups, and deaths will rise. Even in Denmark, where they were jolly strict when schools re-opened (masks, no more than 12 pupils per teacher, staggered start times, dedicated classrooms and playground space, out door teaching whenever possible, no parents on school property, no buses/trains unless absolutely necessary) - the R rose. There is no evidence the virus has become weaker, and with few exceptions, for example parts of New York, herd immunity has yet to play a role.
Good to see the usual high level material used here. Professor John Clancy reported in the Mirror. Any idea what he's a professor of?
It's not epidemiology or pandemics...
https://www.bcu.ac.uk/centre-for-bre...am/john-clancy
Over 1,000 positive test a day on average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
31/5 1916 was the 7 day average for England
30/6 749 7 day average
31/7 787 and by 21/8 we had an increase to 1059 (14th was a biggy) if you check in a couple of days it should be back down again.
However, the 7 day case average has risen a little.
Testing 7 day average on the same dates was
31/5 was 103,700k
30/6 was 132,800k
31/7 was 163,100k
and it's now 172k
So positive tests as a % of tests completed has gone from 0.018% to 0.006% or about 1/3 of the hit rate back in May/June.
"the true number of new cases will be several times this" absolutely Mike, and we can only imagine what the number would have been had we this level of testing back in March. Maybe 20,000 a day positive, maybe many more.
positive tests as a % of tests completed is misleading as it takes no account of people who have been tested multiple times.
There is absolutely no doubt that new infections are currently low. Seems like lockdown worked.
There is also little doubt that there are fewer deaths per positive tests. The answer to that one is debatable and there is currently no agreement as to why.
Few deaths is surely good news.
If it drops to none or as low as flu it should be business as normal.
Covid deaths have already fallen way below the level of flu deaths. The ONS does a weekly report and analyse deaths on the basis of what is mentioned on the death certificate. In their latest report which covers the week to 7th August 1.7% of all deaths mention Covid-19 . 13% mention “flu and pneumonia”, Covid-19 or both. So even though there is some double counting I.e where the death certificate mentions both, it is clear that flu deaths are now way more than Covid deaths.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Now that the death rate has fallen, should we proceed to normality?
It is very difficult to find the death rate using the previous criteria - I challenge you to find the numbers who died after 28 days with a positive test, and those where Covid was on the death certificate but the test was negative or not done. We are being manipulated - with the economy being the reason - politics is about manipulation, and sometimes it is for the overall good. Whether this manipulation of the numbers is a good thing is of course a matter of opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
Don't be mislead by this single case a "second" infection. The 33 year old male concerned had a pretty minor illness first time around, and was asymptomatic the second time. Whether the isolation the second time - with a different strain - was an infection or just "colonisation", like on a door knob, is not known, or, at least, not so far revealed. If they had good evidence of an active infection I would have expected them to give it.
An analogy that has been widely used: now that RTA deaths are tiny should we abandon speed limits and seat belts?Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
We obviously do very much need to proceed to normality. How we do it and how quickly it can be achieved are the questions
We can’t prevent RTA by leaving all vehicles parked on the drive
How would you record it Mike?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
28 days brings England into line with the other countries of the UK and it is certainly far better than the old system where nobody was ever assumed to recover. The infection fatality rate would have eventually been 100%, which I hope you agree is ridiculous. The death toll would have continued going up and up even when nobody was getting Covid anymore. Apparently, 88% of Covid deaths occur within 28 days of the first positive swab so the figures are not going to be massively out.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3220
We also have the ONS weekly measure, which is based on what is stated on the death certificate. This includes where Covid is suspected even if no test has been done.
It's a reasonable point but I think these things should be based on balance and perspective. Lockdown and the on-going restrictions mean millions will lose their livelihoods A couple, who are relatives of mine have both lost their jobs. It is a very frightening experience for them I can tell you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Then you have to factor in the other health conditions like cancer that have been neglected and continue to be so. The oncologist Karol Sikora calls this an unfolding disaster and thinks we have already caused the future deaths of tens of thousands of people unnecessarily from cancer.
Wearing seat belts and having speed limits does not cause other deaths, lockdown does.
We have all been Manipulated throughout our lives, and the truth about Corona19 will not be known for 30 yearsQuote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
under the 30 year rule and then there will still be manipulation if they can work it.
So in the meantime as I have said throughout best get on with life using common sense and compassion, after all if your number is up you are going and there is nothing you or anybody else can do about it.;)
We need to be able to see both the new method figures and the old method figures - the latter are now very hard to find, despite it being said they would be provided. As Spiegelhalter says in the BMJ article: " The 28 day limit marks an improvement . . . but does exclude those who die more than a month after testing, even if they have covid on the death certificate. Including deaths up to 60 days, and later covid registered deaths, seems even better, but still excludes people who were not tested."Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
As to the 88% figure, it depends how you define a Covid death - this may seem circular, but I know from having filled them out myself that there is a huge amount of opinion and politics in what is written on death certificates - it used to be almost forbidden to write "cigarette smoking" for example - and in the current climate, without a positive test, it will often make life easier to leave Covid off, even if it was strongly suspected.
Economy/jobs vs deaths/chronic illness. It is not easy. But the best way to save the former is to minimise the latter. It is how we get there. Minimising the risk is not the answer, but of course nor is maximising it. Sikora is minimising the risk of Covid, but maximising the risk of "missed" cancers - an interesting mixture.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Isn't it interesting, though? It's almost as if no one was thinking of the long-term. There shouldn't have to be an either/or here, surely this could have been spotted early on and planned for?Quote:
minimising the risk of Covid, but maximising the risk of "missed" cancers
I think one of the things people are beginning to forget is the rush to do something about the virus initially, in the face of pretty horrendous scenes from Europe and elsewhere, which perhaps added to the lack of clear-thinking and long-term planning.
The 88% is analysis performed by PHE, which showed that 88% of those who died from Covid did so within 28 days of testing positive. So let's say PHE's daily figures done on a particular day stated deaths from Covid were 9, the true figure might be 10. And don't forget that there will be some who died within 28 days of a positive test of something else, but will still be included as a Covid death.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Why do you want to see the figures on the old basis? They were becoming ridiculous and as time goes on and people die of something else will become even more so.
I don't think if you regularly read his tweets you would say Sikora was minimising the risk of Covid. I have read him urging the need for caution and people being careful. He is merely trying to put things in perspective - Covid deaths are at the moment very low. Cancer patients have been and are still being neglected. It is not just "missed cancers" but those who have had their treatments delayed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
There are currently only 454 people in English hospitals as a result of Covid. Of those only 62 are on a ventilator. In the UK as a whole there are 1257 hospitals (I don't know the figure for England but it will be the large majority). So more than half don't have a single case of Covid. This may change in the Autumn but right now other health issues need to start becoming a priority.
Right. Wet, windy weather.
Let's all get back to work and see what happens next.
Because every time they change the figures it is to make them look smaller/better. For example on the 21st of August the new method daily deaths were 2, the old method deaths 92; similar figures for the seven day average were 6.71 and 51.43. And remember when they used to show a chart comparing us to other countries - scrapped when it was obvious we were a case study in how not to handle an epidemic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I remember the charts - and I remember the regular discussions that it was impossible to make these comparisons so why the hell did they keep showing the chart, until we appeared to be doing worse, then all the doom-mongers thought the charts were bang on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Maybe every time they change the figures, it gives the appearance of making them look better because from the start they were made to look worse, so there is only one way to go when corrections are made.
I haven't heard one case yet of under counting. But several of over counting.
Your examples only go to prove how ridiculous the figures were on the old basis. I seem to remember one day about a month ago where about seven people had died of Covid in English hospitals but the PHE daily count in all settings was about 100. It made no sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Where is the logic of counting every single death as a Covid death just because they once had the infection? It means that nobody ever recovers and the infection fatality rate is 100%. I once had a nose bleed, when I die shall we say that was the cause? I think I'm right in saying that you once predicted that the number of deaths from Covid in this country would end up being the wrong side of 250,000. I can see why you like the old method, you will eventually be proved right. But it might take a few decades or so.
You mention international comparisons. As WP says, they are difficult enough to make at the best of times due to different methodologies. But they become completely meaningless if one country adopts a system as bizarre as PHE did. The 28 day method brings England into line with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but I daresay it is still far more strict than many other countries.
The question I would ask is not why the figures have changed to make them look better but why they were counted in such an inflated way in the first place.
I agree that if someone dies under a bus 3 months after a positive test it is nonsense to call it a Covid death - but equally it is nonsense to say it is not a Covid death when someone dies due to Covid pneumonia 29 days after a positive test. And those excess deaths - it is generally agreed that many will be due to Covid - and even a delay in diagnosis/treatment of cancer resulting in death is indirectly due to Covid. As to the 250,000, we are according to some a quarter of the way there and it has only just started. I do not want this figure to be reached just because I predicted it! Only a vaccine will solve this. The sooner the better, obviously.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
The biggest current threat to life from Covid is dying of boredom reading this thread
Don't read it and live longer ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup