Re: Future of World Powers
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roy Scott
Recently got back from a trip to Berlin. One museum we visited exibited the history of DDR before the wall fell. As I was wondering around it got me thinking that essentially the control and governance is very similar to current world powers such as China. As the story of the DDR unfolds you can't help thinking that the end was inevitable and the people would get their way as the world progressed and modernised. I cant help but think that maybe China will eventually circum to the same conclusion. In opening commerce and international business they can not help but be influenced by the rest of the world unlike absolute goverment control and surveillance like North Korea.
Thoughts?
I think that the way of government is more likely to change in teh west before it does in China.
The Chinese people seem to be more comfortable with firm government and they are delivering growth every year and look like that will continue for the foreseeable future.
Do you think Europe will accept 20 years of stagnation? I don't.
The balance of power is changing.
Re: Future of World Powers
I've been to China four times in the last couple of years and travel around other parts of Asia regularly too. One interesting change even in the last two years is that business news used to be about Europe investing in China and now it's all about China investing in other parts of the world. A lot of young (say, under 40) people in China have only really known growth in their economy and have done very well for themselves in recent years. My feeling is they're more interested in making money than discussing or getting involved in politics
Re: Future of World Powers
Yes, the balance of power is changing and do not see that changing, but China has to go through the same stages of economic development as everone else did over a centry ago.
I dont agree that the Chinese are more comfortable with firm govermance. Continuous propoganda and control has given rise to a generation that perceive to be, however it is hardly as if we get to see freedom of expression and thought. With the rise of shared information I dont think the control of the current goverment is sustainable, the people will win out in the end.
Europe may have to make do with stagnation to be honest, as too many emerging/re-emerging markets are competing for the same services.
Re: Future of World Powers
Chinas problem isnt growth. Its the inflation that comes with it. This if not controlled leads to high prices, unrest, problems to curb it.The only way they can control inflation is to control the growth.It aint rocket science.They have only been an open shop for ten minutes. The growth level they have seen is simply not possible long term.
Re: Future of World Powers
Thats a good point DT and obviously you have alot more first hand experience of what is happening. However initially the DDR did well, economically and people tend to turn more political when the bubble bursts (and we all know that ever bubble has to burst eventually).
Re: Future of World Powers
Quote:
Originally Posted by
daz h
Chinas problem isnt growth. Its the inflation that comes with it. This if not controlled leads to high prices, unrest, problems to curb it.The only way they can control inflation is to control the growth.It aint rocket science.They have only been an open shop for ten minutes. The growth level they have seen is simply not possible long term.
Agreed. There will be another huge property bubble / crisis within the next decade but this one will originate in China, not the West.
Re: Future of World Powers
The other thing to bear in mind is how exposed their economy is to the dollar. They hold a vast amount of dollars in their foreign exchange reserve.
In many ways the fortunes of China and the US are intrinsically linked.
Re: Future of World Powers
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2045/...7f5668e989.jpg
You can't argue with regimes that produce cars like this.
Re: Future of World Powers
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dynamo Dan
The other thing to bear in mind is how exposed their economy is to the dollar. They hold a vast amount of dollars in their foreign exchange reserve.
In many ways the fortunes of China and the US are intrinsically linked.
This was a clever move on the part of China after seeing other Asian countries left hung high and dry following initial US investment in the 80's and 90's. I think as China continues to grow this trend will reverse with the Renminbi becoming the new safe haven for investment.
Re: Future of World Powers
Have they sent anyone to the moon yet.
Re: Future of World Powers
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheHeathens
Agreed. There will be another huge property bubble / crisis within the next decade but this one will originate in China, not the West.
Heatherns; Keynesian or Hayekian economics?
Re: Future of World Powers
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Roy Scott
Heatherns; Keynesian or Hayekian economics?
I don't think there's one school of economics that has been proven through all stages of the economic cycle and certainly not during times of financial crisis. I wouldn't advise Keynesian economics during an economic boom and I wouldn't advise Hayekian economics during a severe downturn.
Difficult question though and one I couldn't give a definitive answer to.
Re: Future of World Powers
China are going through something similar to the Uk in the 19th century.
They now have power and influence second to none in the world. Where the EU and the USA preach to others, China is in there investing and working with them, signing trade agreements where we still have duties and quotas.
Factories that used to produce for the west are now picking up accounts in the new economies such as Brasil, who have as much buying power and less of the BS.
They still have many years to go yet before the bubble bursts.
Inflation is a problem if it is higher than your growth rate, that's the West's issue.
