Deciding to go for it

I think I’ve decided do the BGR, it’s always been in my mind but having had chronic injuries it’s never seemed possible but I’m going to invest the time, build slowly and get there. My plan is the recce this summer/autumn. Use winter to build mileage/conditioning, spend half terms/Easter in the Lakes learning the tricky bits, walk the route at the beginning of summer, spend 3 weeks in the Alps and then go for a mid Sept round.

I think I’m writing this just to make it seem more official, so it doesn’t stay as a pipe dream in the back of my head. I might revisit this post to keep me on track.

I’ve been listening to the BG sounds podcast and I liked the advice “at some point you need need to make a decision, not about whether you finish or not, but you need to decided how you are going to finish”

Any other pearls of wisdom out there?

I wouldn't choose september. more likely to be successful earlier in the year - may or early june best. lower bracken, better weather (on average), longer days.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Full Moon Addict

I wouldn't choose september. more likely to be successful earlier in the year - may or early june best. lower bracken, better weather (on average), longer days.

---

Yeah most attempts appear to be then but I think I’ve got more chance of being fit in September, between family and work it’s always been easier to get get decent training on through the summer

Some stats ...

+-------+-------+
| month | total |
+-------+-------+
| 00 | 1 |
| 01 | 20 |
| 02 | 9 |
| 03 | 2 |
| 04 | 37 |
| 05 | 331 |
| 06 | 1121 |
| 07 | 568 |
| 08 | 192 |
| 09 | 50 |
| 10 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 |
| 12 | 22 |
+-------+-------+

A slightly finer breakdown of the above.


+------+-------+
| week | total |
+------+-------+
| 21 | 141 |
| 22 | 163 |
| 23 | 204 |
| 24 | 371 |
| 25 | 304 |
| 26 | 190 |
| 27 | 126 |
| 28 | 135 |
| 29 | 108 |
+------+-------+

Roughly 73% of all successes are in the above weeks which are those with more than 100 successes. Week 25 is roughly the last week of June.

Thanks I appreciate the data (I’m a maths teacher!) Out of interest do you have the % failure rates for those months as well? There must be a fine line between trods being wider by footfall after winter and the point where bracken regrows. Is the choice of June also due to likelihood’s of mild but dry weather?

I only have the figures from 2013 onwards, prior to that I've only the paper records of successes.

So in this table I've split all the registrations for years 2013-2019 into successes and failures per month. I wouldn't put too much store in the figures for December, January and February as those are winter attempts and a lot of them wouldn't even have set off if the weather had been bad.

There's no differentiation between those who set off and those who for whatever reason didn't.

Overall there is just less than a 50% success rate so April, May and June are better than average whereas the success rate for September is 29%.


+-------+-----------+----------+
| month | successes | failures |
+-------+-----------+----------+
| 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | 23 | 18 |
| 5 | 112 | 86 |
| 6 | 252 | 209 |
| 7 | 124 | 153 |
| 8 | 51 | 85 |
| 9 | 19 | 46 |
| 10 | 4 | 15 |
| 11 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 3 | 21 |
+-------+-----------+----------+

Apologies about the formatting, I've selected a fixed width font but it displays incorrectly.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob

Some stats ...

+-------+-------+
| month | total |
+-------+-------+
| 00 | 1 |
| 01 | 20 |
| 02 | 9 |
| 03 | 2 |
| 04 | 37 |
| 05 | 331 |
| 06 | 1121 |
| 07 | 568 |
| 08 | 192 |
| 09 | 50 |
| 10 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 |
| 12 | 22 |
+-------+-------+

A slightly finer breakdown of the above.


+------+-------+
| week | total |
+------+-------+
| 21 | 141 |
| 22 | 163 |
| 23 | 204 |
| 24 | 371 |
| 25 | 304 |
| 26 | 190 |
| 27 | 126 |
| 28 | 135 |
| 29 | 108 |
+------+-------+

Roughly 73% of all successes are in the above weeks which are those with more than 100 successes. Week 25 is roughly the last week of June.

---

You seem to have 13 months in the first table Bob!

I assume the higher numbers over Dec/Jan is due to it being a holiday period rather than being weather related.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by matthew

I think I’ve decided do the BGR, it’s always been in my mind but having had chronic injuries it’s never seemed possible but I’m going to invest the time, build slowly and get there. My plan is the recce this summer/autumn. Use winter to build mileage/conditioning, spend half terms/Easter in the Lakes learning the tricky bits, walk the route at the beginning of summer, spend 3 weeks in the Alps and then go for a mid Sept round.

I think I’m writing this just to make it seem more official, so it doesn’t stay as a pipe dream in the back of my head. I might revisit this post to keep me on track.

I’ve been listening to the BG sounds podcast and I liked the advice “at some point you need need to make a decision, not about whether you finish or not, but you need to decided how you are going to finish”

Any other pearls of wisdom out there?

---

Are you able to tell me your age or even which age group you are in?

I think that's a problem with how the system sees months and weeks and what's the first week which varies from year to year. Assume the '0' is January.

The December figures are probably people wanting to get a round done early in the winter season or going for a mid-winter round which is based around the Solstice. Other than that no idea.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Llani Boy

Are you able to tell me your age or even which age group you are in?

---

34, any particular reason?

Thanks Bob! That’s interesting to know. I guess we could speculate wildly on the reasons!

[QUOTE=matthew;662435]

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Llani Boy

Are you able to tell me your age or even which age group you are in?[/QUOTE

34, any particular reason?

---

When I have a few weeks of injury free running I daydream of giving it ago and then I'll do a race or a fast effort and get injured again. Your post, especially "I'm going to invest the time, build slowly and get there" struck a chord with me.
I then wondered how old you were and if you were running out of time like me, I'm 61, but pleased to find that at 34 you are only a whippersnapper with plenty of time on your side.

I'll have to quickly decide whether to give up all competitive running and just concentrate on long and slow runs when I get rid of the latest niggle!

I sincerely hope time isn’t running out! But I also want to do something which isn’t constantly trying to get faster, just to boost a few places in a race, which then leaves me injured. It’s about getting back to what I love, which is time in the mountains not running repeats up the nearest bit of steep road (although I imagine I’ll end up doing that as well!). Looking back when I’m 70 odd, I’m not going to remember the times I’ve run, but something like the Bob or Paddy or Ramsey, that’s going to be different. I guess I’m seeing it as an investment, if I put the time in I’ll get something back worth more than 30secs off a 10k time!

Average age of a successful BG completer is 37 1/2. The most common age, fittingly, is 42. I was 46 when I did mine. The annual summary shows age spread, I post it here and on the Club's website.

I checked on the average finishing time per month and surprisingly there isn't much variation, between 22h40m and 23h40m but nothing showing that midsummer times are statistically faster than midwinter ones though of course winter Rounds are somewhat self-selecting in that most (all?) who attempt them have something significant in reserve.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob

Average age of a successful BG completer is 37 1/2. The most common age, fittingly, is 42. I was 46 when I did mine. The annual summary shows age spread, I post it here and on the Club's website.

I checked on the average finishing time per month and surprisingly there isn't much variation, between 22h40m and 23h40m but nothing showing that midsummer times are statistically faster than midwinter ones though of course winter Rounds are somewhat self-selecting in that most (all?) who attempt them have something significant in reserve.

---

Bob

As you know I am not terribly interested in the BGR but I am always impressed with your statistics!:)

Graham

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Graham Breeze

Bob

As you know I am not terribly interested in the BGR but I am always impressed with your statistics!:)

Graham

---

Cheers Graham. <teaser>Just wait:D </teaser>

Actually, you might have to, getting this current lot of data into the database is taking a long time - I started on 1st May and am currently 40% of the way through!

September probably has twice the hours of darkness, even in the most fantastic of weather, than June and on average the weather will probably be wetter and cloudier in September

Mmmm...I'll try to go for June/July then. It seems to make sense and the data points that way so I'll go with that.

I've got myself a calender and plotted some training blocks
This summer I've hopefully a week in Langdale (legs 3/4 and look at Broadstand [I am a climber so we'll see]), a week in Wasdale (legs 3/4, do a few repeats on Yewbarrow to get the measure of it), a week in Glen Nevis (get some hill climbing in!)

Then Oct half term we have a cottage in Thornthwaite so look at Legs 1/2/5, and I'll connect legs 1/2 on a longer day at BGR pace. After this I'll give recces a break and will aim to do longer things in my native Northumberland (McWilliams round etc), Feb half term I'll try to have a couple of longer back to back hill days.

Easter holidays, spend both weeks in the lakes, getting big weeks of up/down in. And maybe try to get a long weekend with the wife walking the route.

June half term...Lake district camping as above. And aim for an attempt in June/July.

I'll get some more weekends in as well but that's the rough outline.

Things to do:
Read the routechoice thread
Read the 10000ft thread (thanks for suggesting it DT)
Learn how to use running poles to great effect and with efficiency. I've thought about this, I have some upperbody/climbing muscles so I might as well use it to my advantage.
Try not to become super obsessed, just mild obsession will be ok.
Memorise all peaks
Loose half a stone
Build slowly
Get back into lifting bits of metal (barbell medicine)
Remember to do eccentric single leg squats

I've come to the conclusion that next year is a bad idea. I think there is still to much uncertainty with the potential for a sudden lockdown and further restrictions to build up for 9months only to find it's suddenly kaiboshed. It's a tough choice but mentally I think trying to plan all the logistics whilst following guidelines (such as they are), and then having the stress of it potentially being cancelled are just a bit much.

Maybe I'll try some of that racing malarky instead...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by matthew

I've come to the conclusion that next year is a bad idea. I think there is still to much uncertainty with the potential for a sudden lockdown and further restrictions to build up for 9months only to find it's suddenly kaiboshed. It's a tough choice but mentally I think trying to plan all the logistics whilst following guidelines (such as they are), and then having the stress of it potentially being cancelled are just a bit much.

Maybe I'll try some of that racing malarky instead...

---

right now, speculating about next year, i'd say racing is looking less likely/realistic than recceing and doing the BGR. your plan looks good. you won't need to aim to lose 1/2 stone in weight, as the training you will be doing should get you fit and strong regardless. i wouldn't say trekking poles are necessary - most do it without don't they? (i've never used poles.)

As BenShep says...

If there are ongoing restrictions into next year, they would be more likely to affect racing than being able to travel and attempt a BG, I would have thought.

Dammit I thought I was decided, now I don’t know.

My massive concern is to train and then get quarantined or locked down and not be able to run it another weekend. Also the logistics of cars and car sharing seems unclear. Are we even meant to share cars at the minute? Currently I can’t holiday with other households due to local restrictions, is the BGR a holiday? Etc...

I doubt we will be in lockdown for all of next summer, even if we are for some of it, so if you were to prepare for early summer then am sure you would be able to do it at some point.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by matthew

Dammit I thought I was decided, now I don’t know.

My massive concern is to train and then get quarantined or locked down and not be able to run it another weekend. Also the logistics of cars and car sharing seems unclear. Are we even meant to share cars at the minute? Currently I can’t holiday with other households due to local restrictions, is the BGR a holiday? Etc...

---

none of this is insurmountable. plus, if the govt is still trying to apply such extreme restrictions in another 9-12 months we will be in civil war anyway.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by benshep

none of this is insurmountable. plus, if the govt is still trying to apply such extreme restrictions in another 9-12 months we will be in civil war anyway.

---

Yeah... I didn't want to turn this thread into "Coronavirus 2"... But yeah I can't see it carrying on through next summer without huge problems within the population, and I suspect the government are well aware of that.

Yeah I'd say that worrying about covid disrupting plans for a BG is not a big thing. And if you do do all the training and it gets delayed, so what, think how fit you'll be?

On the scale of things doing all the training and then get an injury or illness (just a normal illness not necessarily covid :) ) are just as likely disruptors, not to mention god awful weather on the day.

Are you sure you're not just looking for reasons not to try ;)

No point putting your life on hold for something you have no control over just get on with it, what will be will be and its best to be ready for all eventualities whatever they may be.
Have Fun:D