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Anyone got any idea if there's a formula to calculate predicted time for say a 10k with or without lots of ascent Not sure if that sentence makes sense but...I did a 10k along a hilly track today, 220m of climbing in first 5k. Took me 49 minutes. It felt hard going. I haven't done a road 10k in about 10 years and was about 42ins for a flattish course. I'd there a way to predict my 10k time on a flat course from this? Or do I just need to go and do one. Neil
I have got formulae for pace vs gradient, calculated from statistical analysis of record times for uphill and downhill races over a wide range of steepness. But it's all on my computer at work, so I won't be able to get it until Tuesday. If you remind me then . . .
Thanks. I'll prod you next week.
I’m not so sure about predicting flat times based on hilly runs... think it’s just a bit too different.
I do have a bit of a formula for estimating times for Fell races though....
10 minutes per mile
10 minutes per 1000ft
Then use a multiplier based on the terrain/location/ability.
For example, my last Fell Race was Fairfield Horseshoe... 9 miles and 3000ft. 90 mins for the distance and 30 mins for the ascent, gives 120mins (2 hours).
Then use the multiplier... based on it being in the lakes (I.e hard), but generally runnable, I’d use a multiplier of around 0.8 or 0.9..... giving me 96-108mins (1hr36 - 1hr48).
My actual time was 1hr46.
It’s pretty accurate but you’ve got to know your own multipliers for various types of races/terrains, and that can only come from experience or looking at past results. Obviously as I’ve gotten faster the multipliers have adjusted downwards.
To be honest I rarely use it now, preferring to look at past results and comparing to my “rivals”.... (using this method I was looking for 1hr40-1hr45 so was just out!).
But if it’s a race you’ve never done, and past results aren’t helping, then I find it works well.
Thanks for bumping this up, Travs, I had forgotten that I had said that I would use my formula to answer Neilly's question.
220m of climbing in 5km is a gradient of 0.044, which from my formula slows you down by a factor of 1.194. But the answer to the query about 10km times depends on what happens in the remaining 5km: do you go back down the hill, with 220m of descent, or is the remaining 5km flat, or what?