The rolling 7-day average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the UK is today given as 199.71:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...t&country=~GBR
So when, in the press conference on September 21st, Patrick Vallance said (while stressing that this wasn't a prediction) that the “50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November, say, to 200-plus deaths per day." maybe - just maybe - he wasn't scaremongering nor deliberately exaggerating the need for urgent action nor wilfully misrepresenting the facts (as some people suggested at the time) but maybe - just maybe - he was simply telling it as he saw it, based on detailed, systematic and thorough analyses of data from different sources and after listening to the opinions of other people with relevant experience, expertise and knowledge (albeit, admittedly, probably not those opinions of people who post on the FRA Forum). That is, maybe - just maybe - Vallance and Chris Whitty were simply being good scientists. Because now we know, with absolute certainty, that when they said that we 'could' see 200-plus deaths per day by the middle of November they were absolutely correct, since here we are, 2 to 3 weeks before the middle of November, with 200 (rolling 7-day average) deaths and with the trend still upwards and with yesterday's (single-day) number of deaths at 367 (currently).