Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

The seven day average of reported cases is 21,864 so if the 96,000 of people catching it is true then there must be a heck of a lot of asymptomatic people out there. More than 75% of people don't even realise they have the virus. Wouldn't that be good news?

So if the current death figures are based on actual infections a few weeks ago that were more than four times the number of reported cases, the infection fatality rate is probably smaller than we thought. Again, good news, no?

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You do realise that it’s quite feasible for, I dunno, half of those 96,000 projected daily cases to absolutely recognise symptoms of the virus and just be waiting on test results don’t you? And another bunch could have some symptoms which they’re either choosing to ignore or, at present, don’t yet correlate as being the virus? The last reliable estimate I heard of asymtomatic cases was just under 20% so yeah that would still be a big number of 18,000 ish each day that are asymtomatic

I see a report that the first medical sniffer dogs for Covid are training up well, hope to be operational in the new year sometime. They can sniff a positive in less than a second and this includes asymptomatic carriers.
Interesting positive development.

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Originally Posted by molehill

I see a report that the first medical sniffer dogs for Covid are training up well, hope to be operational in the new year sometime. They can sniff a positive in less than a second and this includes asymptomatic carriers.
Interesting positive development.

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Dogs are brilliant :)

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Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever

The seven day average of reported cases is 21,864 so if the 96,000 of people catching it is true then there must be a heck of a lot of asymptomatic people out there. More than 75% of people don't even realise they have the virus. Wouldn't that be good news?

So if the current death figures are based on actual infections a few weeks ago that were more than four times the number of reported cases, the infection fatality rate is probably smaller than we thought. Again, good news, no?

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Asymptomatic? Or presymptomatic? Or unable to get a "Serco" test in the usual way and coincidentally contacted randomly by React-1 so of course went along with it? And if many never have any symptoms, or at least troublesome symptoms, whilst it may be good news for them, it may not be good news for those they spread it to.

Some doubt React-1's figures - their subjects are selected randomly, and the scientists involved will know the accuracy of the tests they use, and will be able to adjust the results accordingly.

Unless we have a tight lockdown soon - Tier 3 is obviously not tight enough - ITUs will be in real trouble. The first wave was bad enough. It is a shame we have not learned lessons and upped the quality/quantity of test/trace/isolate.

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

You do realise that it’s quite feasible for, I dunno, half of those 96,000 projected daily cases to absolutely recognise symptoms of the virus and just be waiting on test results don’t you? And another bunch could have some symptoms which they’re either choosing to ignore or, at present, don’t yet correlate as being the virus? The last reliable estimate I heard of asymtomatic cases was just under 20% so yeah that would still be a big number of 18,000 ish each day that are asymtomatic

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Well ok, if half of these 96,000 are just waiting on test results no doubt we'll see the official cases figure reflect this in the next few days.

Again, if some people are pre-symptomatic at the moment and will be going for their test when they recognise the symptoms, we should also soon see this come through in the case figures.

How do you know the proportion of asymptomatic people? I've seen forecasts between 5% and 80%. The truth is nobody knows.

Whatever it is, my other comment still stands. If actual infections are running at more than four times the official figures it must mean that the death rate is lower than we thought, which would be great wouldn't it?

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

Dogs are brilliant :)

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Something we can agree on.:)

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

You do realise that it’s quite feasible for, I dunno, half of those 96,000 projected daily cases to absolutely recognise symptoms of the virus and just be waiting on test results don’t you? And another bunch could have some symptoms which they’re either choosing to ignore or, at present, don’t yet correlate as being the virus? The last reliable estimate I heard of asymtomatic cases was just under 20% so yeah that would still be a big number of 18,000 ish each day that are asymtomatic

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That sounds like double and/or triple counting even.

If they are waiting on test results, they'll be in the figures shortly won't they?

Let's keep to apples and apples eh? the recorded cases are what Vallance referenced and the recorded cases were not growing exponentially as he suggested.

meanwhile reports in Blackburn that people have been declaring symptoms and heading off for testing in the hope they'll get a positive and qualify for two weeks of and a £500 bung.

No, I can't believe anyone would do that, just like no one fiddled the furlough scheme.

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Originally Posted by Witton Park

That sounds like double and/or triple counting even.

If they are waiting on test results, they'll be in the figures shortly won't they?

Let's keep to apples and apples eh? the recorded cases are what Vallance referenced and the recorded cases were not growing exponentially as he suggested.

meanwhile reports in Blackburn that people have been declaring symptoms and heading off for testing in the hope they'll get a positive and qualify for two weeks of and a £500 bung.

No, I can't believe anyone would do that, just like no one fiddled the furlough scheme.

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To be honest I’m a bit sceptical about the REACT survey but, either way, the virus is obviously spreading really fast. So we currently have daily new positive cases at c 24,000, the ZOE symptom checker app is saying It’s nearer c 45,000 and REACT suggesting as much as 96,000. The one thing that is fairly well understood though is that cases have been doubling about every nine days so, unless all the increased restrictions and scary news don’t have an affect with the general public, it’s quite feasible that we’ll be at the 96,000 new positive tests each day in c 18 days time, it’s the maths of it all that is pretty frightening

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Originally Posted by Mike T

Asymptomatic? Or presymptomatic? Or unable to get a "Serco" test in the usual way and coincidentally contacted randomly by React-1 so of course went along with it? And if many never have any symptoms, or at least troublesome symptoms, whilst it may be good news for them, it may not be good news for those they spread it to.

Some doubt React-1's figures - their subjects are selected randomly, and the scientists involved will know the accuracy of the tests they use, and will be able to adjust the results accordingly.

Unless we have a tight lockdown soon - Tier 3 is obviously not tight enough - ITUs will be in real trouble. The first wave was bad enough. It is a shame we have not learned lessons and upped the quality/quantity of test/trace/isolate.

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I don't think there are any issues with getting a test at the moment. The testing centres are deserted. I wonder where they are testing all these folk.

The scientists involved in React 1 will know the accuracy of the tests? Well they can share that with us can't they?
I actually thought accuracy of the tests was not an issue anymore. A little bird keeps telling me so. Perhaps it is as they still haven't published the information on the accuracy or lack of it.

Picture this though Mike - React 1 contact comes in - will you help us track the progress of the virus....

Who's going to be most likely to take them up on it?

It's hardly random.

They will get a higher proportion of responses from certain sections of the community, and if one of them gets a positive test, they can probably hire out their services on a commission basis to help cash in on the £500 incentive scheme.

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Originally Posted by Fellbeast

To be honest I’m a bit sceptical about the REACT survey but, either way, the virus is obviously spreading really fast. So we currently have daily new positive cases at c 24,000, the ZOE symptom checker app is saying It’s nearer c 45,000 and REACT suggesting as much as 96,000. The one thing that is fairly well understood though is that cases have been doubling about every nine days so, unless all the increased restrictions and scary news don’t have an affect with the general public, it’s quite feasible that we’ll be at the 96,000 new positive tests each day in c 18 days time, it’s the maths of it all that is pretty frightening

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Stolly - you say you are a bit sceptical. Fill us in. What concerns do you have? I'm genuinely interested. We may have differing concerns, but still both have doubts.

UK Positives by specimen date 20th Oct centred average 21k, 29th Sept was 10.5k

That's doubling every 21 days. A doubling of positive tests.

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...880962/photo/1