Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
So UK salmon and beef will be cheaper for people in the UK then?

And presumably things imported will get more expensive. Do I need to ready the household for a change from avocado to gravlax. The sacrifices we have a make...
You don't need to worry about anything Noel.

Of course the volumes would have been reduced a little all things being equal. I will now have a few EU customers who may chose to buy from one of my EU competitors so they don't need to worry about a customs charge.
But by the same token I'll pick up UK customers who used to buy from EU suppliers, but also don't want to pay the customs charge.

But there are 3 major factors at play in the figures that our friend Stolly has posted.

1. Companies planning for January disruption. I filled my boots in November and December. I just took my first significant delivery of CO2 cylinders from Austria last week and my main supplier in Slovakia will be shipping a selection of parts to me next week - I normally buy every 4-6 weeks.
My customers in the EU did similar. I emailed them all in the Autumn recommending that they avoid January. Most did.
I know this was widespread.

2. January disruption. There was some of course. Some are not used to the paperwork requirements. I am, and I still had problems with EU Customs.
I had one package returned claiming I had used a tariff code that did not exist, but I've been shipping using that code for 6-7 years all over the world, and several other shipments went out that month using the same code.
It went the second time - so a glitch at the EU customs end who had refused to clear it.
Covid has also meant lots of short-staffed customs offices.

Funnily enough, the worst place seems to be Ireland. Dublin customs were taking up to 4 weeks to clear goods. I assume that much of what comes in to Dublin is either through UK or pre-cleared in Rotterdam, so they were probably ill prepared.
One of my customers were waiting for a search light, 6 weeks stuck in Dublin.


3. Covid - it has affected shipments in several ways but clearly demand is down.

I'm pretty sure we will see a big bounceback in February and March mainly due to the point 1, but also as point 2 seems to have been largely resolved.

But because of point 3, and the situation in much of the EU at the moment, it could be 2022 before we can really judge what the effect has been.