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Thread: Brexit

  1. #31
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    Out out out

  2. #32
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    As with many debates on here, I come to different conclusions depending on what aspect I'm looking at:

    As an internationalist, I think we should stay in
    As a believer in the free market, I think we should leave
    As a pragmatist, we should stay in
    Democratically I see arguments either way - the EU parliament is elected, but local issues have no way to be taken into account give the scale of the thing
    Legally, I quite like having a legal framework that prevents power being misused by UK parliament. And things like the EU working time directive, and paternity leave are good examples of progressive policies
    As a radical, we should leave and forge our own identity, rather than being one of the many

    Which leads me to a mildly pro-European stance, but I wouldn't be offended if we decide to leave. I'm surprised by the certainty with which some people (mainly politicians but also people on here) can make claims about what will happen. The truth is no-one can know, it's all conjecture.

    The other thing that comes through quite strongly, is how little difference it will make. If we want to trade in the same way with the EU after leaving, we'll have to abide by their rules and continue to pay in. Yes, it will be less of their rules, and we'll have to pay in less. But it's not the bold "sailing our own course" that some people are heralding.

  3. #33
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    As with many debates on here, I come to different conclusions depending on what aspect I'm looking at:

    As an internationalist, I think we should stay in
    As a believer in the free market, I think we should leave
    As a pragmatist, we should stay in
    Democratically I see arguments either way - the EU parliament is elected, but local issues have no way to be taken into account give the scale of the thing
    Legally, I quite like having a legal framework that prevents power being misused by UK parliament. And things like the EU working time directive, and paternity leave are good examples of progressive policies
    As a radical, we should leave and forge our own identity, rather than being one of the many

    Which leads me to a mildly pro-European stance, but I wouldn't be offended if we decide to leave. I'm surprised by the certainty with which some people (mainly politicians but also people on here) can make claims about what will happen. The truth is no-one can know, it's all conjecture.

    The other thing that comes through quite strongly, is how little difference it will make. If we want to trade in the same way with the EU after leaving, we'll have to abide by their rules and continue to pay in. Yes, it will be less of their rules, and we'll have to pay in less. But it's not the bold "sailing our own course" that some people are heralding.
    I think you are like the majority Noel.

    Just briefly.

    The EU parliament, whilst elected, operates more like the Lords here in UK. It doesn't shape policy.
    I think paternity pay is UK policy not from thee EU.
    I think the EU is increasingly playing to International Rules. This part of the complication when dealing with issues such as TTIP. If the EU wants the deal, it will have to adopt things that are new to the EU, imposed by the USA.
    WTO is already setting rules that the EU has to adopt. They are more and more like a middle man.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #34
    Master Muddy Retriever's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    . And things like the EU working time directive, and paternity leave are good examples of progressive policies
    If we left, the default position would be all current laws irrespective of whether they originated in Brussels or Westminster. The Government of the day could chose to keep, amend or repeal theses laws as it saw fit and the electorate in turn would have the ability to either return that Government to power or kick it out. That is democratic accountability. With the EU, we don't have it.

    If we want to trade in the same way with the EU after leaving, we'll have to abide by their rules and continue to pay in. Yes, it will be less of their rules, and we'll have to pay in less. But it's not the bold "sailing our own course" that some people are heralding.
    The vast majority of firms don't export and of those that do, less than half export to the EU. So only a small majority of firms would have to comply with EU laws. When we want to export to the USA we have to comply with their rules. There is no difference.

    I agree that leaving is unlikely to bring an immediate economic panacea. But I do agree with Witton that the Remain side is engaged in scaremongering. It is interesting that Cameron had stated that unless he got the reforms he wanted in his EU negotiations he would campaign to leave. But his reforms were largely cosmetic which casts a lot of doubt on Cameron's credibility when he now says what a disaster it would be if we left.

  5. #35
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    The actual trading regime is far more complicated when it comes to what the scope of the declared trade is.

    EU origin or not?
    Many products currently imported to the UK from the EU have an origin outside the EU anyway.

    This link shows some key info on the German Footwear industry.
    Manufacturing of footwear has largely disappeared now in Germany, just like the UK.
    Yet Germany exported 229 Million pairs of shoes in 2014.

    So it is importing footwear mainly from the Far East and then exports much of it around the EU and sometimes even out of the EU showing as German exports.
    When Germany exports footwear to the UK, such as to supply the Deichmann stores or for the Aldi promotions, they show as German exports, when in fact they are mostly China origin.

    So you could say the UK pay the German companies to import from China on our behalf - they are in effect a middle man creaming off a commission.

    It could cut both ways. but for the built in trading disadvantage we have here in the UK - the English Channel.
    Cross border shipments are a lot easier when it's a land border.
    If I send 1kg to Dover it can be as little as £2.70 including VAT. If I send to Calais, it will almost certainly be over £20.

    What is clear is that it is unclear what exactly the figures are for imports and exports between the EU and the UK for EU origin goods, but the mainland Europeans do a lot better out of it than us.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  6. #36
    Master mr brightside's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stagger View Post
    Out out out
    Yeah, out for me too. The Eurozone is being flooded with asylum seekers and migrants from places that will never recover in their lifetime, both North Africa and the Middle East are overpopulated and people are struggling as fights break out over who controls what. The humanitarian crisis will afflict one EU nation after another until everyone crams into the last little corner to get their slice of what remains, with The Channel being where it is we will probably be the last corner. Our best option is to pull up the drawbridge; hardship, overpopulation and unemployment are otherwise a mathematical certainty.
    Luke Appleyard (Wharfedale)- quick on the dissent

  7. #37
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    So on the remain side we have Mark Carney/Barack Obama and now chief of staff of Nato all saying Brexit would be bad.

    On the leave side Jacob Rhys Mogg/Witton Park and now Mr B

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by luxinterior View Post
    So on the remain side we have Mark Carney/Barack Obama and now chief of staff of Nato all saying Brexit would be bad.

    On the leave side Jacob Rhys Mogg/Witton Park and now Mr B
    Hmmh. The 1884 Great Reform Act has a lot to answer for.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by luxinterior View Post
    On the leave side Jacob Rhys Mogg/Witton Park and now Mr B
    I thought I detected just a hint of irony in Mr B's comments . . .

  10. #40
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=luxinterior;622141]So on the remain side we have Mark Carney/Barack Obama and now chief of staff of Nato all saying Brexit would be bad.


    Interesting that you mention Obama. The guy that promised to close Guantanamo 8 years ago.

    Do you think the US would accept an EU style system where they have one vote in a North and Central American QUANGO along with Mexico, Belize, Nicaragua.....?

    The USA is almost on a par with some of the despots around the world when it comes to defending their rights to make their own decisions about their own country and citizens.

    They are the only Western Nation to refuse to accept the International Criminal Court.

    He wants us to sign up to an organisation which the Americans would never consider signing up to. His intervention is purely to further US interests within Europe and not UK interests.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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