Who disputes it? So are ( were ) we contributors. But the trade surplus Germany runs with the EU is many times bigger, as is the flood of cash back to Germany.Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
The surplus is reckoned to be toxic by many commentators. It is not sustainable and it is damaging those who trade with it. The exchange rate should move to compensate. It cannot because of the Euro.
Last edited by Oracle; 23-04-2019 at 07:03 PM.
which has declined recently.trade surplus Germany runs with the EU
you keep on saying this, in various forms, but have never backed it up with anything.the flood of cash back to Germany
you're conflating the surplus with trade with the EUThe surplus is reckoned to be toxic by many commentators
who mentioned the Euro?It cannot because of the Euro.
....it's all downhill from here.
I keep showing you the target2 balances which show the capital flows. What else do you want?it is the ECBs own records of money flooding to germany, and out of italy unsustainably. Do you understand settlement in the eurozone?
http://www.eurocrisismonitor.com/img...0-%20large.jpg
The surplus of trade with EU is many times bigger than contribution and is clearly toxic to the EU. It doesnt matter whether it drifts up and down, it is unsustainable. It forces debts to rise in the deficit countries.
And it is all about the euro, that stops the normal adjustment for it, the massive capital flows and also gives Germany an unfair advantage outside the EU by averaging down its exchnage.
It cannot end well. The only question is when it falls over.
Indeed, ad nauseam with his use of "straw man" a close second.
Last edited by Graham Breeze; 23-04-2019 at 09:08 PM.
"...as dry as the Atacama desert".
Well, you know, there are two camps, Sinn and Wollmershäuser (2011, 2012) and Fahrholz and Freytag (2012) take the view that the current account imbalance will create persistent TARGET2 balances. The second camp, including Buiter et al (2011), Mody and Bornhorst (2012), Bindseil and König (2012), and Cecioni and Ferrero (2012) see this as one symptom of a balance of payments crisis. Bindseil and König (2012) argue that the Eurosystem full allotment refinancing operations should be seen as financing the reversal of an outstanding stock of cross-border claims while the TARGET2 payments system merely records the results.
....it's all downhill from here.
I want to believe that guy who says things in short paragraphs without using excessive hyperbole.
It's all a bit Cassandra. Maybe Oracle is right, but he's so verbose no-one reads his full posts. Ah, the tragedy of it all.
Indeed. It's almost Greek.
As Demosthenes might have said: What a man wishes he generally believes to be true.
Last edited by Graham Breeze; 23-04-2019 at 09:32 PM.
"...as dry as the Atacama desert".
Have to give the EU credit, they got onto the Irish government, very quickly to start making trouble. So quickly in fact that the Irish government had its first brexit meeting in 2015, one year before the referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...brexit-nemesis
Double Dutch to me most of it.
They really don't look like your words Dave. For sure there is a question of interpretation, it combines not just trade settlement but also capital flight.
What is undeniable is a real capital outflow that is clearly unsustainable. When a bank in Berlin receives a euro, and a bank in Italy sends one, the target 2 changes accordingly. Every euro at ECB is mirrored by a real one in the economy.
Some of the newer economies are obliged to settle and cannot build ECB balances. There is now a trillion It will certainly come to home roost if Italy defaults and collapses out of the euro. there is very little real collateral propping the banks up.
I didn't actually come here for an argument. I wondered if any were interested in some of the macroeconomic fault lines that show the euro is not sweetness and light: that like other currency unions have propagated dangerous imbalances, which many consider will end in failure , for all the same reasons all other unions failed.
Remainers view the EU as a stable continuum, and mutually beneficial cooperative. The figures disagree.
At very least it is interesting, and I am certain it is new to most readers here.
In my view the euro had already caused too much misery by preventing the poor and debt economies from recovering, whoevers fault it was in origin. My concern is we are sleepwalking into disaster again. Some of us were aware that 2007 was inevitable years before the economies stopped, and just as convinced Italy must fail now. A populist EU election could easily spook the bomd markets.
Last edited by Oracle; 23-04-2019 at 09:38 PM.
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