Brexit

[Muddy Retriever]

One former Tory Ann Widdecombe made the point that the Tory papers keep saying in true Muddy style 'vote Brexit Party get Corbyn,' to which she replied "vote Brexit Party get Brexit." I liked that. And isn't that the truth since they are the only party now who offer a true Brexit?

I read that in marginal constituencies polling is suggesting that the Brexit Party is picking up twice as many votes from the Conservatives as Labour.

In Portsmouth South the Tory candidate was a leave campaigner. According to the latest poll in that constituency the Tories are on 27%, the Brexit Party is on 14% but coming through in the middle are the Liberal Democrats on 30%. Well done Nigel.

The pro EU newspaper the New European is mockingly calling Farage their secret weapon.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...ball-1-6362322

So I would amend Widdecombe's slogan slightly: "vote Brexit Party get Remain."

[Witton Park]

I read that in marginal constituencies polling is suggesting that the Brexit Party is picking up twice as many votes from the Conservatives as Labour.

In Portsmouth South the Tory candidate was a leave campaigner. According to the latest poll in that constituency the Tories are on 27%, the Brexit Party is on 14% but coming through in the middle are the Liberal Democrats on 30%. Well done Nigel.

The pro EU newspaper the New European is mockingly calling Farage their secret weapon.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...ball-1-6362322

So I would amend Widdecombe's slogan slightly: "vote Brexit Party get Remain."

It cuts both ways.

There are Labour seats the Tories want to capture, but too many Labour voters will refuse to vote Tory, but will vote BXP.
Without the BXP candidate, Labour might win.

I think in the end the BXP will target seats and aim to get 5-10 MPs, without a formal agreement with the Tories.

[Muddy Retriever]

It cuts both ways.

There are Labour seats the Tories want to capture, but too many Labour voters will refuse to vote Tory, but will vote BXP.
Without the BXP candidate, Labour might win.

I think in the end the BXP will target seats and aim to get 5-10 MPs, without a formal agreement with the Tories.

This is what John Curtice has to say about that.

"According to ICM and Opinium again, just as many Labour Leave voters have switched to the Conservatives (19%) as have moved to the Brexit Party (18%).

Against that backdrop, the claim that the Brexit Party can win over traditional Labour voters who would never contemplate voting Tory looks somewhat suspect."

And

"Of course, traditional Labour voters are thought to be more common in the Midlands and the North of England.

Yet a regional breakdown of party support released by YouGov suggests that, with the exception of the North East, support for the Brexit Party is only marginally higher in the North of England than in the rest of the country – and no higher at all in the Midlands.

In short, there is little evidence to support the view that Mr Farage is damaging Labour more than the Conservatives – and plenty to the contrary."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...fect-election/

[CL]

You keep talking about "Tory Brexiteers" but you're still ignoring the non-Tories (including Brexit Party candidates) who back the deal and think Farage is wrong.

Here is one person who I have no doubt has read the agreement from cover to cover. He is the legal expert Martin Howe who was a sharp critic of May's deal, which he had forensically scrutinised.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...t-brexit-name/

In case you're not a Telegraph subscriber, the key argument I think is this:

"a word-for-word comparison of the Political Declaration (PD) which sets out the future EU-UK relationship with its previous Theresa May version reveals that it has been amended in vital respects. The PD is important because it is linked to a legal obligation on both parties to use “best endeavours in good faith” to negotiate an agreement in line with its principles.

The PD as amended now clearly foreshadows a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU and not a customs union. The difference is vital because an FTA, unlike a customs union, allows us to set our own tariffs with third countries and to operate our own independent trade policy.

Obligations in the PD for the UK to align our future rules to EU rules have been deleted, and any alignment will be optional. The so-called “level playing field” commitments in the PD have been changed. The previous commitment to shadow the EU rules on competition and state aids in Theresa May’s WA has been replaced with a more open ended commitment not to distort competition similar to that in many FTAs."

He does admit that some problems remain in Johnson's deal:

"But they do not make the deal Brino and do not stop us achieving the fundamental objective of Brexit which is to restore our independence and sovereignty over our laws, borders, money and international trade.

My own preference would be for us all to get into a time machine and travel back to 2016, avoid the disastrous May premiership and instead have a competent and determined PM conduct the negotiations with the EU. The enormous strides which Boris Johnson has made in changing a supposedly “unreopenable” deal in a few short months demonstrate that we could have got a wholly different and much better deal.

But we must deal with the world as it is rather than the world as we would like it to be. This is something that Nigel Farage should bear in mind now."

I did mention the non-Tory Brexiteers in my last post first sentence. In regard to Martin Howe's article what does 'best endeavours in good faith mean?' Barnier has made it clear there will be no free trade deal unless we align ourselves to their regulations, along with access to our fishing waters etc. I voted Brexit to do away with regulations not keep and increase them.

I noticed in the last paragraph Mr Howe capitulates with the usual compromising talk about dealing with the world as it is. But as I've already stated any compromise just leads to Remain.

[CL]

I read that in marginal constituencies polling is suggesting that the Brexit Party is picking up twice as many votes from the Conservatives as Labour.

In Portsmouth South the Tory candidate was a leave campaigner. According to the latest poll in that constituency the Tories are on 27%, the Brexit Party is on 14% but coming through in the middle are the Liberal Democrats on 30%. Well done Nigel.

The pro EU newspaper the New European is mockingly calling Farage their secret weapon.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...ball-1-6362322

So I would amend Widdecombe's slogan slightly: "vote Brexit Party get Remain."

Muddy you seem to think the Tories have a god given right to exist. They have had ten years to do away with the progressive policies of the Labour party and they haven't done it. They have increased them. One of the reasons people voted Brexit was they were demoralised by positive discrimination of successive governments egged on by the EU.

Over a week ago a guy was on Farage's LBC show. He lived in Australia and he agreed with the laws there that made voting compulsory. But Farage disagreed with him. That's what I like about him. He generally has a good idea of what freedom entails. But the Tories don't. They are a party of progressive liberals.

Javid of the Conservative party last week said the Tories believe that your money belongs to you. Then in the next breath tells us what bribes the Tories are going to dish out at this election. They don't even attempt to tell the truth anymore.

No a vote for the Tories is Remain and that's what we'll get.

[Muddy Retriever]

I did mention the non-Tory Brexiteers in my last post first sentence.

I think you said have they read it? I don't know is the answer but I've no reason to believe that they haven't. Why does Arran Banks who is Farage's old brother in arms think he is wrong? Why are some Brexit party candidates not convinced by their leader and standing down instead?

In regard to Martin Howe's article what does 'best endeavours in good faith mean?' Barnier has made it clear there will be no free trade deal unless we align ourselves to their regulations, along with access to our fishing waters etc. I voted Brexit to do away with regulations not keep and increase them.

From his comments Farage appears to be terrified of Barnier, it's probably a good job he won't be involved in the trade negotiations. But the references to the UK aligning its rules to EU rules have been deleted. What's more the UK still has the option of walking away at the end of the transition period in December 2020.

Angela Merkel's comments after the deal was signed are also telling. She stated that while under Mrs May’s deal ‘it was not clear whether there would be membership of the Customs Union’, under the Johnson deal ‘it is quite clear that Great Britain will be a third country’. In other words outside of the Single Market and Currency Union.

The deal isn't perfect but from my perspective it is a question of whether you are prepared to get most of what you wanted or nothing at all.

[Witton Park]

I did mention the non-Tory Brexiteers in my last post first sentence. In regard to Martin Howe's article what does 'best endeavours in good faith mean?' Barnier has made it clear there will be no free trade deal unless we align ourselves to their regulations, along with access to our fishing waters etc. I voted Brexit to do away with regulations not keep and increase them.

I noticed in the last paragraph Mr Howe capitulates with the usual compromising talk about dealing with the world as it is. But as I've already stated any compromise just leads to Remain.

I have a few friends and customers in the fishing industry and contribute to a couple of industry forums.

I actually think we should be responsible with fishing. Investing in a fishing boat is a huge long term deal.

Taking back control fine, completely shutting out foreign vessels is too far in my opinion.

We can extend our coastal limit, we can reduce the quota for overseas vessels and perhaps make it conditional on landing at a UK port which ensures the UK can monitor the vessels more effectively, as well as gain from the processing and distribution.

In return, as part of that deal, we have the market open to the EU for fish exports.

That is at least how I would play it and I think most fishermen would be happy with that.

[CL]

I think you said have they read it? I don't know is the answer but I've no reason to believe that they haven't. Why does Arran Banks who is Farage's old brother in arms think he is wrong? Why are some Brexit party candidates not convinced by their leader and standing down instead?



From his comments Farage appears to be terrified of Barnier, it's probably a good job he won't be involved in the trade negotiations. But the references to the UK aligning its rules to EU rules have been deleted. What's more the UK still has the option of walking away at the end of the transition period in December 2020.

Angela Merkel's comments after the deal was signed are also telling. She stated that while under Mrs May’s deal ‘it was not clear whether there would be membership of the Customs Union’, under the Johnson deal ‘it is quite clear that Great Britain will be a third country’. In other words outside of the Single Market and Currency Union.

The deal isn't perfect but from my perspective it is a question of whether you are prepared to get most of what you wanted or nothing at all.

Listen this is serious stuff and some people disarmed by the slogan 'Let's compromise' capitulate. They give in because they just want it over and done for. They've put their faith in Johnson's ability to 'get Brexit done.' But Johnson - as shown by Channel 4 news - doesn't know the details.

Even if all Brexit Party candidates stood aside for the Tories that wouldn't mean Johnson's treaty is in the spirit of Brexit. Arron Banks may believe quite honestly that this is Brexit but he could be wrong. And on the other side of the coin so could Farage. So we have to look at the arguments and in my opinion this isn't Brexit.

One final point. Farage isn't terrified of Barnier. He actually admires him for outgunning the British in negotiations. He has often said he would have liked him on our side. But Farage also knows you have to be prepared to walk away if you don't get what you want. That is something Boris would never do. We know that because on the third time of asking he voted for May's deal.

[Muddy Retriever]

One final point. Farage isn't terrified of Barnier. He actually admires him for outgunning the British in negotiations. He has often said he would have liked him on our side. But Farage also knows you have to be prepared to walk away if you don't get what you want. That is something Boris would never do. We know that because on the third time of asking he voted for May's deal.

Boris was afraid that we would end up with no Brexit at all. But it was a mistake to vote for her deal in my opinion. Has Farage never made any? However given the chance to negotiate himself he secured something much better. This was done in a very short space of time when everybody said that the EU would not reopen the Withdrawal agreement. And this was achieved despite Parliament undermining the UK's negotiating position.

Barnier appears to be a good negotiator but how hard did he need to try when May was PM? The people conducting the negotiations on the UK side were not true believers. They saw Brexit as a damage limitation exercise so their aim was to keep the UK as closely aligned to the EU as possible.

Anyway this conversation started a couple of weeks back when you asked what I thought of Boris' treaty. I've said what I think but I know I'll never convince you.

[Muddy Retriever]

Breaking news:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50377396

Looks like he's compromised CL.