Brexit

[Witton Park]

I would have thought that was a given, becasue nither a Brexitier or a Remainer could win.

What might save her are:
1. There are a greater proportion of MPs on the Govt payroll now with even a few dozen trade envoys meaning almost half of the Parliamentary Party are in Govt.
2. Most Tory MPs are out of step with the membership and voters. They were Remainers and if they could, would reverse the decision.
They certainly will not want a Brexiteer in charge.


However if May is toppled, a Brexiteer leader is almost inevitable. They will probably agree one candidate. If we get to that point I expect it will be BJ with Davis back in as DEXU Secretary to finish the job off.

I see he has already put out an alternative Withdrawal Agreement today and it seems sensible. It doesn't take us back 12 months, it just seeks to get rid of the main sticking points and keep some options open after 29th March rather than signing them off now.

[Muddy Retriever]

So... conservative leadership election. What do people think will happen?

I'll go for Teresa May surviving but not by much, but soldiering on anyway saying "now's not the time for change, we need to get my plan approved".

I think she will survive too, unfortunately.

[Muddy Retriever]

To answer that question, I would have to have a deep understanding of what is in the treaty, before I could make an informed decision about wheather getting it in "via the back door" is the right thing or not. Just because the people said something it does not mean it is right.

You could say that about any election. We don't test people to see how knowledgeable they are before allowing them to vote. The fact is they gave the people the vote so it is totally undemocratic to ignore them because they didn't give the results the elites wanted.

Maybe if a lot more people had really understood the pros/cons of EU membership, how fragile the peace is in N.I. and more importantly, what sort of trade deal is realistic, the country would not be in the chaos it is in now.

People knew enough. They knew that they didn't want to be sucked into a Federal state, which is where the EU is headed.

I don't think it is the fault of the people that the EU and Irish Government decided to weaponize the Irish border for their own ends.

As for what is a realistic trade deal I would say a Canada style one is realistic. After all Canada has one.

[molehill]

I think May will survive because nobody else truly wants the job, they would be on a hiding to nothing.
They wish to destabilise her from behind the barricades (so to speak), from a safe distance they can posture, throw abuse and promise the world without having to step up to the line. Nasty school kids in the playground.

Once any deal is done, then she will be ousted immediately and one of the big guns step into the breach to "clear up the mess he didn't cause".

I put Corbyn and Labour party in the same position, actual power right now would be a disaster for them, far better to shout the odds from a safe distance.

But I may be proven wrong very soon!

[anthonykay]

When things were better managed all the 48+ who signed a letter of "no confidence" would have been executed...which approach would have eliminated politicking and concentrated minds on the qualities the traitors were rejecting: integrity, tenacity, loyalty, stamina, intelligence, stateswomanship,...

Maybe it's time for HM The Queen to take charge. Lock Boris in the Tower, execute Jacob R-M and display his head on a spike on London Bridge; and to make sure that no-one else thinks it's time to come out to play, banish Jeremy Corbyn to exile in British Antarctic Territory and confine Nicola Sturgeon in a nunnery.

[DrPatrickBarry]

You could say that about any election.

Absolutely, look at Labour & Corbyn, Five Star in Italy, Trump, Putin, and no end of other mistakes.

[CL]

Absolutely, look at Labour & Corbyn, Five Star in Italy, Trump, Putin, and no end of other mistakes.

What about Stalin? Didn't he share your conviction that society was selfish? And didn't he slaughter millions of his own people in the pursuit of self-sacrifice?

[CL]

I like Rees-Mogg. He's my virtual best mate. When the 48 letters didn't come immediately many were saying he'd fluffed it, that he'd taken the first step and other hadn't followed, but he responded "Patience is a virtue, virtue is a grace,the letters will come." What a Cool Hand Luke response. And they did come.

And although this hopeless prime minister has won the vote tonight it actually represents a terrible outcome for her. She has no power and is just wasting time that the brexiteers desperately need to address the mess she got us into.

[Graham Breeze]

I like Rees-Mogg. He's my virtual best mate.

CL is "virtual" what those in the real world call fantasy?

[Witton Park]

They wish to destabilise her from behind the barricades (so to speak), from a safe distance they can posture, throw abuse and promise the world without having to step up to the line. Nasty school kids in the playground.

I'm not sure who you are referring to, but I can guess.

You see the Leave supporting Tory MPs have voted through all Brexit legislation. They supported May's leadership as she promised to honour the referendum. They agreed with her set piece speeches, Lancaster House and Florence.
They agreed with the Brexit policy set out in the manifesto.

The original rebs including Clarke, Soubry, Grieve.... were the dissenting few.

The big game changer was Chequers. No DEXU legislation has passed since and not only has this alienated around 150 Tory MPs that were previously onside, it has also alienated the 10 or so Tory rebs,the DUP and the Labour Leavers.

About the only ones still supporting her policy are people on the Government payroll.

Around 50 of those voting confidence in her last night, did so whilst stating they will vote down her agreement.

I haven't a clue where it will go now. But May's deal is a dead duck, even if Mrs May hangs on for a little longer.