Brexit

[GeoffB]

I thought Pythia was a priestess and died along time ago? I think you are right, I have about as much chance of getting a rational answer from a mythical decomposed corpse as I do from an Brexiteer

I do not see how putting up barriers to trade is a good thing at all, facetiousness aside, if the Oracle is a person, perhaps a member here? Then I really am keen to hear exactly how leaving the EU is going to improve things for us all and specifically for me help my business and improve my life. Right now it all just works seamlessly and I don't have to do anything other than produce, sell and ship - it doesn't matter if my customer is in the UK or anywhere in Europe; it just works! I don't get customers from further afield because of import duty, taxes and postal service fees which make it unfeasible. Am I really looking at losing 80% of my customer base when we leave the EU? This is a genuine question that no one seems to be able to answer.

Also, if I have to spend any time at all doing anything more to comply with any new regulations my business borks because I am already running at the limits of profitability. Every minute counts and has a very real financial cost associated with it.

I don't have a problem running this part of my business this way whatsoever, it works for me. It's probably not what most folk would consider a serious business, but it doesn't need to be right

Unless of course the whole idea is to put people like me out of business and hand everything over to Jeff Bezos who doesn't have to pay any taxes or contribute to society in any way. Is that it?

The company I work for has already moved some of its manufacturing business from the UK to Germany in readiness for a no deal Brexit, because our (die-hard Tory) MD realises that they'll no longer be able to compete with other European suppliers. Companies order 'just-in-time' and nobody can afford to have goods sat waiting in a long queue at border control.

[DangerMouse]

This is the tip of the iceberg! Just search online for companies that have left the UK because of Brexit, it's no joke!

I am not into fear mongering and all the high drama that the newspapers like to bandy about, but it does not look good, however you look at it!

Unless...

I am missing something?

I am going to make this my last post on this subject for a while and give others a chance to read and respond, so once again, how is Brexit a good thing in practical terms?

I am willing to search and read, but I need some pointers because I can't find *anything* that makes any sense.

Thank you

[Wheeze]

Phew, where to start?
The problem DM is it depends who you ask. Just as in any group there will be mixture of people and opinions ranging from swivel-eyed loonies to rational, thoughtful types. Its much more difficult to concisely say why something should change instead of staying put with the status quo. And if life teaches you anything, it is that people are naturally risk averse. Gurus make a very good living out of teaching change management.
So, I could, if inclined, go over once more why I made what was, to me, a rational thoughtful choice when I put my vote on that bit of paper. But it probably would be pretty meaningless to you because your viewpoint/environment/personal persuasions may be very different to mine.
So, in the end, individuals batting their own personal viewpoints around doesn't really help anyone. Its only when you take a significant overview like, say, a referendum that you can get an averaged opinion. The averaged opinion for this question was out...but by a tiny majority. In my view that majority is too small to be relevant. But the people asking the question did not think to set a meaningful majority!

[Mike T]

Phew, where to start?
The problem DM is it depends who you ask. Just as in any group there will be mixture of people and opinions ranging from swivel-eyed loonies to rational, thoughtful types. Its much more difficult to concisely say why something should change instead of staying put with the status quo. And if life teaches you anything, it is that people are naturally risk averse. Gurus make a very good living out of teaching change management.
So, I could, if inclined, go over once more why I made what was, to me, a rational thoughtful choice when I put my vote on that bit of paper. But it probably would be pretty meaningless to you because your viewpoint/environment/personal persuasions may be very different to mine.
So, in the end, individuals batting their own personal viewpoints around doesn't really help anyone. Its only when you take a significant overview like, say, a referendum that you can get an averaged opinion. The averaged opinion for this question was out...but by a tiny majority. In my view that majority is too small to be relevant. But the people asking the question did not think to set a meaningful majority!

.... nor to ask a specific enough question. As to the general ignorance on the issue - this applies to the public and the politicians - and all the lies that were told - but the general feeling seems to be it is too late to start again. Yet it is the only real answer to the potential problems we face. This constant " the public just wants us to get on with it ...." - how do you know - have you asked them? Sure, the public is sick to death of it, but that might mean they want it stopped altogether rather than proceeded with.

[Wheeze]

too true Mike....but this is the politicians gambit. The current situation is a classic filibuster. But in this case you cannot 'talk out' a referendum result. Its not like a Bill. But then again, government is not bound by a referendum result. Talk about the horns of a dilemma. The government is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't all because of the split vote. The real twister is a second referendum won't heal the harm.

[Stagger]

The majority of the voters asked to leave.
It's not up for renegotiation.
Just LEAVE.

And yes it is as simple as that.

[DangerMouse]

Indeed, opinions are like...

But honestly, I am not *really* interested in opinions, although they do make for good discussions, the reality is my livelihood depends on concrete answers to the specific questions I posted earlier.

Everyone has something to say, but no one seems to actually know anything?

===

My opinion is that leaving is a step in the wrong direction, just as we were starting to feel like a European Community. Immigration is a clouded issue and quite frankly the multicultural society we live in is one of the things I am most proud of about living here. I have lived in the middle of Cheetham Hill in Manchester and while it was not free of problems, it really was wonderful! So lovely to see people from all over the world getting on just fine - this is how people really are. Such a shame we have a very vocal racist and prejudiced minority that seems to get far too much attention. I dread to think what is going to happen to our hospitals without immigrant workers. I don't want the archetypal arrogant obnoxious slob looking after me, no thanks, I would much rather have a conscientious eastern european who actually cares about themselves and their work.

I am utterly dismayed that all the EU social funding is going to go, so much good work has been done under that banner, some of which I have been proud to be part of that I am also certain would not have happened otherwise - we tried and failed before. I sincerely hope we don't regress all the progressive laws and regulations that have been brought in under the EU, 20-20-20, REACH, RoHS, Temporary Agency Workers Directive, Working Time Directive, GDPR, to name but a few... if our government reverts them that would be a tragedy and pretty much amount to crimes against humanity.

For sure the EC absolutely is not perfect, the laws and regulations are not perfect either, but at least as a member state we have a say and some influence over what happens. Being out and just having a trade deal like Norway for example, I can just see us not being able to do anything about it but comply anyway, I mean if you have to comply with RoHS to sell your electronic goods in the EU, then you will still have to comply even if we leave.

Finally, what are the farmers going to do without the bailouts?

It seems so wrong on so many levels

Having said that I am open minded and really keen to hear what will actually be good about it, got to make the best of things hey, I want something to look forward to instead of medicine shortages and food price increases, so... any practical examples like the ones I have given above but that are about why it will be good?

[Witton Park]

A referendum can't be more specific than leave or remain, just like in Scotland at the indi ref.

It is then up to the Politicians to deliver on the result.

Imagine the consternation in Scotland had they won in 2014. Then the Uk Govt insisted on a Withdrawal Agreement which gave us legal oversight and a veto over the final arrangement etc.

Anyway, there's a danger of going over old ground for about the 5th time so I'd best quit now

[Witton Park]

2) I make synthesisers it is a 'niche of a niche of a niche' market - I source parts from the UK, US, Germany and Thailand, sell to customers in UK and Europe. The margins are tight to say the least. If my profits are hit in any way it will become impossible, hmm, I should say impractical and unprofitable, to compete with small machine based production runs.

So what you are perhaps looking at if you stick to the same sources are some initial extra import costs from Germany.
You may well see lower ones, although not perhaps immediately, from your other sources as they are outside of the EU.
It depends how the EU tariffs on these compare with those set out by the UK in their schedule published earlier this year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/t...exit-published

You could consider sourcing the German components elsewhere if they are in a higher tariff rate group.

Then you have customs issues. But you will be familiar with them now if you import from outside the EU.

I have a similar issue with CO2 Cylinders for lifejackets which I buy from Germany. At 4% duty, it isn't so onerous and perhaps a 1% cost of customs clearance.

However, I have cheaper prices from Japan and China, but I have to buy almost double per order. The 4% might tip me towards the Far East, but then my German supplier might sharpen their pencil.

I also have a US option that I've never even pursued. Maybe I will.

It's a bit like a fell race. It might be tough, challenging, risk laden... but with the right approach it could be a real rewarding experience.

[DangerMouse]

That's interesting - thanks Witton Park!!

To be honest, the worst part of all this is the exchange rate, the £ has fallen so much agains the dollar and euro that I might be screwed anyway. Fortunately I have quite a lot of parts in stock, so I am not down and out yet.

Tge main problem is parts scarcity, I don't really have much choice but to source them from 'wherever I can get them'. One project often involves orders from 4 or 5 companies around the world - this stuff is not easy to just do. It took me a good few years to feel confident enough in my building skills to be able to sell the things, I will feel sad if I have to give it up because it is no longer financially viable.

If import duty and taxation is going to disappear from imports from the US and elsewhere in the world then that would certainly offset the loss in value of the £. Have a look over the last 10 years on XE - the £$ has lost 30cents since Brexit. That's a massive generalisation, but it's about right and for people like me this is a huge problem.

When will Brexit pay me back for all the losses over the last two years? And how? (this is a rhetorical question I know no one can really answer this!)