Brexit

[Stagger]

I'll vote for anyone standing in my constituency who wants leave the eu.

[Stolly]

Here’s my election predictions for what it’s worth:

1. The tories will do okayish in England but won’t gain seats from labour in pro- Brexit constituencies in the north - the Brexit party will instead split their vote there. The tories will also lose a few pro remain seats here and there but their core vote will keep their noses just about above water.

2. The tories will get completely hammered in Scotland

3. Tactical voting could lose a handful of seats for the tories - it would be a darn shame if Boris lost his. Or Rees Mogg, or Steve Baker, or Duncan Smith, or that completely annoying twat Mark Francois 😊😊

4. Maybe that will net down to them ending up with the same number of seats that they started with or maybe a slight gain or (wishful thinking) a slight loss.

5. Labour too will end up just about where they started with their bonkers Brexit policy putting off both some remainers and some leavers in equal measure. Also Jeremy Corbyn will lose support from Jewish communities (and rightly so) which might cost them here and there

6. The Lib Dems will gain some seats. As a very pro-remain voter my best hope is that the balance of parliament at the end of the day will mean that labour have a minority government and we go for their renegotiated softer Brexit vs remain in a second referendum. It’s a very tight hope though 😬

[Travs]

I try and look at politics through very simple eyes...

Labour (as the opposition) surely have a massive contradiction in their interests, as do all the other opposition parties...

Surely their role in parliament is to govern as to the wishes of the public? I.e actually help push Brexit through rather than trying to block it at every turn.

Or is their role to oppose the government? I.e make things as difficult as possible for the Conservative party.

They can’t do both. It seems to me this is a massive stumbling-block at the centre of UK politics, and I have no idea how to solve it.

Would be interesting to see how the individual politicians voted in the numerous parliamentary votes over the past 6 months, in comparison to how their constituencies voted (leave/remain).

Notwithstanding the above, the opposition politicians who are lining up to publicly slate Boris Johnson for not getting us out of the EU today (get in that ditch, etc)..... are by and large being completely hypocritical, as it seems to me that it is they who have prevented us leaving, and not necessarily Boris Johnson....

Which then brings us nicely back round to my first point above....!

[Stolly]

Travs that is bollocks. If labour and parliament have done anything to delay Brexit, it’s largely because they did not want a rock hard Brexit as favoured by the nutcase wing of the Tory party. Theresa May drew her red lines early doors and never dared to relax them and get a consensus. Labour would have signed up to a softer Brexit yonks ago. In fact that’s pretty much exactly what Jeremy Corbyn prefers

[Stolly]

Parliament stalled on Brexit because in simple terms there were three factions, all sort of equal to each other: Hard bastard Brexit, softer Brexit and remain. Whatever one of those factions wanted, the other two consistently voted against

[Travs]

It might be “bollocks” but it’s my view, and no amount of going round in circles on this thread will change it.

I think this is my 2nd or 3rd post on the entire thread and I’ve got no great desire to increase that number. Was just presenting, as I said in very simple terms, what I see as a large stumbling block right at the heart of UK politics.

I have very little interest in politics in comparison to many on here.

Just saying what I see.

[Witton Park]

Here’s my election predictions for what it’s worth:

1. The tories will do okayish in England but won’t gain seats from labour in pro- Brexit constituencies in the north - the Brexit party will instead split their vote there. The tories will also lose a few pro remain seats here and there but their core vote will keep their noses just about above water.

2. The tories will get completely hammered in Scotland

3. Tactical voting could lose a handful of seats for the tories - it would be a darn shame if Boris lost his. Or Rees Mogg, or Steve Baker, or Duncan Smith, or that completely annoying twat Mark Francois ����

4. Maybe that will net down to them ending up with the same number of seats that they started with or maybe a slight gain or (wishful thinking) a slight loss.

5. Labour too will end up just about where they started with their bonkers Brexit policy putting off both some remainers and some leavers in equal measure. Also Jeremy Corbyn will lose support from Jewish communities (and rightly so) which might cost them here and there

6. The Lib Dems will gain some seats. As a very pro-remain voter my best hope is that the balance of parliament at the end of the day will mean that labour have a minority government and we go for their renegotiated softer Brexit vs remain in a second referendum. It’s a very tight hope though ��

We can check back at the end but here's my take.

1. Tories will gain seats in England and Wales. Overall up 25.

2. The Tories will lose a couple of seats in Scotland, but the SNP won't clean up as they expect.

3. yes it could, but it could also win a few for them in surprising areas.

4. I reckon + 20-25 for the Tories.

5. Labour will tank. Their Brexit policy is confusing, but also many of their core policy positions can't be taken up if we eventually remain eg. the Amazon tax, state aid, nationalisation.
You can really see the EU salivating at the prospect of revising the WA and future declaration for the 3rd time, only to see it go to another vote.

6. LibDems will stay about the same. They'll pick some up, as Labour get caught in the cross-fire and perhaps also in Scotland where the SNP don't have it all their own way, but they'll also lose some. A case of swings and roundabouts mostly.
+/- 5 seats.

7. I think the Brexit Party will take some seats in traditional labour areas. 5-10 I reckon. Martin Daubney for example as a local lad in the East Midlands and son of a miner could win.
I can also see them picking up one of the M65 seats, perhaps Burnley.

So in the end I reckon 335-345 Tories and Brexit Party.

[Graham Breeze]

It might be “bollocks” but it’s my view, and no amount of going round in circles on this thread will change it.

I think this is my 2nd or 3rd post on the entire thread and I’ve got no great desire to increase that number. Was just presenting, as I said in very simple terms, what I see as a large stumbling block right at the heart of UK politics.

I have very little interest in politics in comparison to many on here.

Just saying what I see.

Well Travs, there might be some on this Forum who think that holding and expressing a different view to Stolly is a compliment to your perspicacity, candour and dare I say, cojones.

[Stolly]

I have very little interest in politics in comparison to many on here.

Just saying what I see.

Haha, as somebody famous once said, the trouble with democracy is the ignorant have exactly the same influence with their one vote as the informed 😊

[Stagger]

WP is a lot closer to what will happen than the ill informed dale mister.