Come on Stoll there's no need for cursing like Pat Barry . I don't remember ALL your posts just the significant ones. Like when you had a sulk because forumites were more interested in reading the political threads rather than your wildlife adventures.Originally Posted by Stolly
Simples
But if you are right Graham and the EU aren't our friends why would you want to remain? You said it above, just wondering? Simples!
Last edited by CL; 17-03-2019 at 04:05 PM. Reason: Simples!
When we were in the EU the others had to be respectful (if not overly chummy) because of our intellectual contribution, financial muscle, economic clout, etc.
Whilst the EU is a different animal from the Common Market days (and not necessarily for the better) it will have to change because of problems like Italy, Greece etc - and we could have made those changes happen because of our clout etc.
So given we were long-standing members then remaining was the only intelligent position to hold because whilst no-one could accurately forecast how calamitous the outcome of the negotiation to leave would be, a child of 5 with an IQ above 50 and a few months of playground experience would have already had enough life-experience to know that leaving would be a disaster because of spite and revenge prompted by rejection etc.
And so it has come to pass.
But hey! I have just been out for a ride in the sun on my new Italian Bianchi/Campagnolo 22 speed, after going shopping in my German car and I am now sipping a lovely French White Burgundy and planning my next holiday in Finland (EU Member since 1995)...and life will go on.
"...as dry as the Atacama desert".
It is common for remainers to assess the acceptability of the EU on the assumption of a sustainable present. That is not the reality. It is not sustainable. The euro will hit the buffer and there are only choices on how to disintegrate,the currency union is no longer reparable. Nor do I think our so called clout made a jot of difference to the programme of the unelected ideologues. Ultimately it is the refusal of such fanatics to negotiate before the referendum led to the vote, and also the failure to negotiate agree terms since. Britain must not yield to bullies.
"Im allright Jack" with the german car italian bike or holiday is indeed a popular emotion used as (my view false) justification of remain, which largely disgregards the fact that after brexit, all can still buy italian bikes or german cars and holiday in europe unless the EU self harm with tarriffs. What I dislike most with "im alright jack" mentality, is how it turns a blind eye to the huge wave of suffering the euro and EU imposes. What have such people to say to the 30-40 percent permanent youth unemployed becoming young adults in all of the countries that Germany hurts? They are the reason for the populist unrest that will be the undoing of italy, italian banks, the euro, and ultimately the EU
It is a calculated gamble, nothing is certain, but I think the EU elections will result in populist outcome that will spook the money markets. There are a massive amount of italian bonds due for rollover this year at what I suspect will be impossible rates: that will create the crisis. It is not new debt that will cause the crisis, it is rolling over old debt at spiralling rates.
In anticipation of the crisis following elections, money that can leave italy will and bond holders will want to sell to avoid haircuts, and the sell and so increasing rate spiral will explode the crisis. Zombie italian banks hold too many italian bonds already in what will become a doom loop for country and banks. I doubt if the numbers mean much to average Joe. But present rates hint at italian default likelihood of over 20 percent. All banks are exposed directly or indirectly to the bank collapse that could follow the crisis of confidence in italian bond markets and banks. At 2 trillion debt, ttaly is too big to save and too big to fail. Greece was only containable from contagion because it was tiny
Last edited by Oracle; 18-03-2019 at 01:23 PM.
Oracle, your beef seems to be with the Euro, which the UK is not part of.
You could argue that’s what makes UK membership of the EU unsustainable in the long-term. The EU needs to integrate more closely to save the euro. But I would imagine even many who voted remain don’t want to be part of a European super state and don’t want to join the euro.
If the euro collapses or Italy defaults the financial shockwaves will topple banks and cause us serious, even devastating problems. A domino collapse that ishard to predict. Our banks are indirectly exposed to it. It will also destroy the EU. Being outside the euro is scant comfort.
My beef is with the EU morphing from trading zone to superstate. The currency, and so budget approval a symptom of that. I also cannot condone how the EU treats the casualties of its own policies. We did not leave EU . It left us. Had it been run by a pragmatist like Hans Olaf Henkel I would have voted remain. But t would never have become what it is.
Last edited by Oracle; 18-03-2019 at 09:53 PM.
My beef is with the EU morphing from trading zone to superstate
Precisely. And that process was pushed forwards by Maastrict which is why we should have had the Referendum then. John Major is answerable for that.
Simon Blease
Monmouth
Interesting points Muddy and Oracle. I've seen this argument used as a scare story.
"The EU will turn itself into a federal state. This is the time to get out."
But I don't believe it, because if it were to, we would have a veto. The only time we wouldn't have a veto is if we're outside it.
Time will tell whether the Euro is ultimately doomed. I'm less convinced. I also think mass youth unemployment in some Southern European countries is probably not solely related to the Euro. Devaluation by countries to escape from debt should be a last resort, and is a symptom of previous financial mismanagement.
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