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Thread: Conservative leader

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    Whoever wins will have the same parliamentary deadlock on Brexit to contend with so there will have to be a general election to break the impasse. But even that may not do it. For the Tories to have any chance of luring their voters back from Farage and winning, it will have to be a Brexiteer and probably Boris.
    A general election solves nothing. Labour do not have a brexit policy, just a duplicitous illusion and even the illusion is not brexit. It is remain dressed up. You cannot be in the customs union and out of EU control. It is a contradiction in terms..

    The obvious fact is that as this stands we leave without a deal, and the Cooper Boles amendment hijacking of democracy can no longer be used with or without the speakers attempts to frustrate brexit.

    There are no obvious routes for parliament to prevent no deal. That is Boris' Strength. He really can play EU at its own silly games demanding change with a proper "or else" that should have been there from day 1

    Perhaps there can be an agreement instead of EU silly draft. Which they wrongly call an agreement, it is agreed by nobody but them, and it is just an offer of talks for a massive some of money. It even fails to meet article 50


    As for the caricatures of Boris they are a media creation.He is everything May is not. He is a good delegator and leader, which is why he was Londons most successful mayor, with the highest popularity rating. He has charisma. I have spent some time talking to him at Institute of Directors: he is a thnking man.

    May failed because she was an administrator, not a leader. A micro manager and failed to give minsiters any authority. Boris would appoint the right people to get the job done and let them do it. .
    Last edited by Oracle; 24-05-2019 at 06:14 PM.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post

    There are no obvious routes for parliament to prevent no deal.
    Perhaps youíre right and I hope you are. But thatís what they said last time. I remain to be convinced that there isnít some obscure arcane parliamentary way to overrule the executive. If a proper Brexiteer becomes leader we will probably find out.

  3. #13
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    Glad she left and hope Boris gets it. He's got the charisma/charm that has been missing from the Tories. I think he'll provide a firm basis on which to build.

  4. #14
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    Hung parliament.
    Waste of time and money.
    But at least a new PM could get us out of the shit we're in

  5. #15
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    A General Election could sort it out, if it can't be sorted out otherwise.

    Today Rory Stewart says he couldn't serve in a Cabinet that accepts No Deal as an option.


    We'll see. This is pre contest posturing. I can quite see that he could change his mind, especially as there will never be such a thing as No Deal. It is no agreement on the Withdrawal Agreement and already 50 or so provisional side deals have been passed through the EU Parliament to cover a so called No Deal Scenario.


    I think it could quite well develop in to a bare bones deal, with further dialogue.


    If the members overwhelmingly endorse a Leader on such a no deal ticket, which goes to conference and again is overwhelmingly accepted, it is very difficult for MPs to resist that. They will be faced with a support it or step aside option.

    The local branch members will be well within their right to ask the MPs to confirm their support for the leader, or selevct one who will.


    The dynamics of the next GE, especially if it comes before we leave, will be different to any other we have had.

    I think voters will vote tactically.

    I think parties might contest seats tactically, especially the LibDems and Greens will, perhaps along with the TIGs if they are still around.

    What will Labour come out as? I expect a very soft BRINO muddled with a 2nd referendum where they will campaign to revoke.

    So there could be 4-5 Remain parties contesting each seat.

    On the other side, will Farage put candidates up against a staunch Leave Tory? I doubt it.

    The one big factor in all of this.

    Will the EU blink?

    A new Commission, who don't need to worry about losing face, may be prepared to change position.

    Interesting times, but I think finally we are going to bring this to a conclusion, whatever that might be
    Last edited by Witton Park; 25-05-2019 at 10:51 AM.
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  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    Perhaps you’re right and I hope you are. But that’s what they said last time. I remain to be convinced that there isn’t some obscure arcane parliamentary way to overrule the executive. If a proper Brexiteer becomes leader we will probably find out.
    Cooper boles was only possible because of prior amendments to the withdrawal act. Without the WA cooper boles could not have achieved anything.

    The other mechanisms such as opposition day debates can be delayed by the incoming PM.
    So it is hard to see any legal process to prevent no deal brexit, other than a successful vote of no confidence in the government: but even that probably could not work quickly enough to allow new legislation.

    I do not trust the speaker however to amend the constitution.

  7. #17
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    I think Dominic Raab from those I've seen. I listened to him on TV just after May resigned. He was asked if he would stand in the PM contest. He said he would have to wait for the results of the European elections and also consider what the outgoing PM had to say.


    That was a thoughtful answer as the EU elections may give information on whether the country has changed it's mind on Brexit. If it had I could see him as a Brexiteer not wanting to stand. However on the Andrew Marr show this morning he said he was standing in the PM contest. So what had changed from the restraint he'd shown a day earlier?


    Things like that fascinate me because it shows a lack of consistency. Unless something changed. I also liked David Mellor's account of Theresa May. Blunt to say the least but right. I've got into the habit now when listening to politicians I don't like of judging their views on merit rather than whether I like them.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry View Post
    You are living in a dream world, to anti-brexiteers, the well being of the country is more important than what the tory whip can do to them. BoJo will find himeself in the exact same situation as the MayBot. Does he have the balls to go for a "no deal" brexit, and if so how does he get it through parliment?

    An election will not help him as a Labour/SNP could be a likely goverment.
    He doesn't have to.is No deal Brexit happens by default , and cooper boles is no longer effective.
    There is little time even for a vote of no confidence to act to preventing. Our MPs and remain hijackers are just stupid enough to want to prolong the non existent state farce however.

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