New PM

[Stagger]

Esther McVey for me. Lovely looking lass.

[Gambatte]

Better looking than Boris for sure.

[DrPatrickBarry]

Esther McVey for me. Lovely looking lass.

My wife went to school with her for seven years, they were in the same "gang". Helen reckons she was a decent enough girl. Pity she became a Tory and rabid Brexiteer.

[Llani Boy]

Rory Stewart looks like the only one who would make a decent fellrunner.

Just a shame he is a remainer.

[Muddy Retriever]

Boris has lost weight recently and he appears to run (after a fashion) so you never know.

[noel]

I'm not a fan of Esther McVey. She's too opportunistic and I question her integrity. Having said that, in this respect she and all the others are much better than Boris, who's the clear favourite.

Incidentally, I know someone who's on the left of the Labour party who thinks it would be great if Boris won, as he'd help Labour's cause.

Gove for me. He seems the most capable. Ability seems to be something that is underrated by people choosing politicians.

[Muddy Retriever]

Incidentally, I know someone who's on the left of the Labour party who thinks it would be great if Boris won, as he'd help Labour's cause.

That's very interesting that they think that. From what I read the consensus among many Tory MP's seems to be that although they think Boris has many flaws, he is the only one capable of beating both Farage and Corbyn at the moment. That's important because given the state of the parliamentary arithmetic a general election appears to be inevitable sooner rather than later.

[Witton Park]

Incidentally, I know someone who's on the left of the Labour party who thinks it would be great if Boris won, as he'd help Labour's cause.

I'd suggest your acquaintance is as deluded as their fellow travellers.

Polling is unreliable, but every single poll suggests BJ is an electoral asset to the Tories as leader. One out in the last few days suggested he could gain a 100 seat majority.

I accept he could blow it - but somehow what some class as gaffs, many in the public see as eccentric, or human.

Now I'm not so deluded as I'd buy in to the 100 figure.

But consider at the last General Election 42.4% voted for a poor PM and a poor manifesto. The polls had been up close to 50% until the campaign started.

Those voters haven't disappeared. Perhaps half are with Farage.

At that time they were voting for a Canada style FTA and the Irish backstop hadn't been heard of.

If Johnson has to go to a GE, that will be due to 10-20 Tory rebel MPs as he tries to just leave on 31/10.

In that situation, the GE will be almost entirely on leaving with No Deal or revoking.

I believe he will get most of the 42.4%

I think Farage will selectively pick off any Tory Brexit blockers if they haven't been replaced, and a raft of Labour MPs.

Unless Labour, LibDem, Greens form an alliance (and Labour will not) they will split the Remain vote, especially where the NATs come in to play.
Labour's GE stance is almost certainly going to be a Remain fudge and will drive some of their voters to Tory and/or BP.

So 100 seat majority highly unlikely. 50 quite possible.

[Muddy Retriever]

Bad luck Stagger. Esther is out. Boris storming out in front.

Boris: 114
Hunt: 43
Gove: 37
Raab: 27
Saj: 23
Hancock: 20
Stewart: 19
Harper: 10 – Eliminated
McVey: 9 – Eliminated
Leadsom: 11 – Eliminated

[anthonykay]

I would quite like Sajid David to win, simply because it would really annoy Donald Trump. More seriously, I think Rory Stewart would be best; but he hasn't got much chance, he has far too much wisdom to be Tory leader.