New PM

[Oracle]

Daily mash spot on as always: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...20190625186949

I notice both potential leaders are going for the "big lie" approach. Tax cuts and increased spending. What happened to reducing the deficit?

It never seemed to matter to the opposition. So they can hardly argue.

Coming to which its all those lovely tarriffs we will collect from EU if they are stupid enough to no deal! The savings we make on not having to buy stupid EU stuff, at stupid EU protection zone prices.

And theres the thing. The lower tax rate, give it time and the more tax you collect. Sounds counterintuitive? No. Take companies, higher tax rates rob the apples off the tree before they are even ripe. If you stop picking them too soon, they become far bigger when you do. If you want companies to invest, stop nicking their money! Take a cut when it comes out instead. Easy,so long as you dont look at the world through they eyes of a vindictive marxist failure.


But The REAL question is will a piffling sum like that evn matter when the house of cards collapses? Taking the banks with it...

And before anyone says "he's paranoid" I would like to quote you one of the main architects of the ECB and the rules that govern it. A man who Could even be considered the father of the euro. A clever man too. Chief economist - Otmar Issing

Issing said in recent times "it is only a matter of time before the house of cards collapses" (concerning the euro ). That is quite a "someone" to agree with me. dont you think?

Sadly the unelected halfwits that purport to run the EU, refused to listen when he told them the conditions they would need for it to succeed. They ignored him completely and did it anyway. When italy starts its parallel currency the proposed "minibot" (AKA lira 2) and it trades on an exchange somewhere it will all start to unravel.

Ive been saying buy gold. Now finally the deflationary expectation gives people a choice. You can either PAY portugal or germany to look after your money in ever dwindling quantity (negative interest rates). Or you can buy gold.

Finally broke through 1400 as the Fed announced more of the medicine of rate cuts QE and cheap money that made the patient sick. It really is heroin they give to an addict lng after it ceased to help, it is now actively toxic. Which is why the smart money and most central banks have been buying up gold on the quiet. Record quantities.

[Muddy Retriever]

What happened to reducing the deficit?

Down to 1.5% of GDP for the latest financial year according to the ONS.

[noel]

But The REAL question is will a piffling sum like that evn matter when the house of cards collapses? Taking the banks with it...

I'm hoping the Italian banks don't collapse. Partly because I don't want to see millions of people cast into poverty (and yes that is relative poverty - any other type is meaningless). But partly because I don't want to have to say "yes Oracle, you were right on this one thing".

Having said that, the malicious part of me wants them to fail, to serve as a lesson against financial mismanagement. What's your hope Oracle, would you rather be right or wrong on this one? You seem particularly concerned about the plight of Southern Europeans.

Interestingly, I was reading a bit more about Southern Italian youth employment, and it seems many eminent economists attribute it to long-standing Italian labour laws, and nothing to do with the EU.

[noel]

Down to 1.5% of GDP for the latest financial year according to the ONS.

Yes, still in the red. Not the time to increase spending and cut taxes.

[Oracle]

I'm hoping the Italian banks don't collapse. Partly because I don't want to see millions of people cast into poverty (and yes that is relative poverty - any other type is meaningless). But partly because I don't want to have to say "yes Oracle, you were right on this one thing".

Having said that, the malicious part of me wants them to fail, to serve as a lesson against financial mismanagement. What's your hope Oracle, would you rather be right or wrong on this one? You seem particularly concerned about the plight of Southern Europeans.

Interestingly, I was reading a bit more about Southern Italian youth employment, and it seems many eminent economists attribute it to long-standing Italian labour laws, and nothing to do with the EU.

There is cause and effect and they can be hard to separate.

People also attribute the decline of the mezzogiorno to organised crime.
In my view they have the cart in front of the horse. If the only game in town is organised crime, and the only one you can turn to for money or work is organised crime, it is bound to proliferate in desparate areas. Protection rackets deter outside investors.

The tiny incomes and massive taxes forced by balancing budgets on a massive national debt makes the black market proliferate (as it does elsewhere eg in Portugal everything done "in cash". That inevitably feeds organised crime even more. It is why salvini wants proper benefits, so that people are not forced into supporting black market ventures.

Becasue of the massive debts as well, payment terms are very slow. That too is a dissincentive for outside investment to set up companies there.

In summary: I think it is a consequence not a cause of the lack of growth in italy, so massive decline in real terms. People are desparate, so that the black market and crime flourishes. One of the responses of socialist governments to unemployment is beefing up labour laws. It can be the worst response that contributes to (but did not create) the problem.

The upshot of all of this, is if a country can make itself attractive to outside investment, offer sufficient unemployment benefit to allow labour laws to be relaxed then inward investment starts and a few years later revenues flow. But that requires a deficit budget. So they are trapped by the Euro.

It is easier to see the cause and effect in spain. There it was noticeable that increasing the burden of employment dramatically reduced the number of permanent jobs, and guarantee entrepreneurs dont want to set up there. For spain it was self inflicted. Restrictive labour is also the reason the french trains are the worst performing rail system on cost metrics in europe. Sadly Corbyn wants to copy them. We saw what happened when Macron wanted to dismantle some of the restrictive practices!

All of this can self regulate with floating currencies. The euro was the big mistake.
The reason they tried alignment, is the EU wanted a superstate. It got the chicken and egg back to front.

What I want is the euro to disappear. For a new EU to be a cooperative trading zone each with own currency, that allows the currency shifts to stop the positive feedback, that makes the rich richer and the poorer countries poorer. In such a zone the prices of german currency would rise until their products are so expensive, portugal can compete. And when it does it can lower its taxes!

Joint standards can be helpful so long as they are optional. Mandatory only where safety is involved. Joint programmes used only where necessary eg police sharing and security.

The idea of the superstate run from Brussels, rather than trading club was the problem.






.

[Dave_Mole]

What's your hope Oracle, would you rather be right or wrong on this one?

There is cause and effect and they can be hard to separate.

People also attribute the decline of the mezzogiorno to organised crime.
In my view they have the cart in front of the horse. If the only game in town is organised crime, and the only one you can turn to for money or work is organised crime, it is bound to proliferate in desparate areas. Protection rackets deter outside investors.

The tiny incomes and massive taxes forced by balancing budgets on a massive national debt makes the black market proliferate (as it does elsewhere eg in Portugal everything done "in cash". That inevitably feeds organised crime even more. It is why salvini wants proper benefits, so that people are not forced into supporting black market ventures.

Becasue of the massive debts as well, payment terms are very slow. That too is a dissincentive for outside investment to set up companies there.

In summary: I think it is a consequence not a cause of the lack of growth in italy, so massive decline in real terms. People are desparate, so that the black market and crime flourishes. One of the responses of socialist governments to unemployment is beefing up labour laws. It can be the worst response that contributes to (but did not create) the problem.

The upshot of all of this, is if a country can make itself attractive to outside investment, offer sufficient unemployment benefit to allow labour laws to be relaxed then inward investment starts and a few years later revenues flow. But that requires a deficit budget. So they are trapped by the Euro.

It is easier to see the cause and effect in spain. There it was noticeable that increasing the burden of employment dramatically reduced the number of permanent jobs, and guarantee entrepreneurs dont want to set up there. For spain it was self inflicted. Restrictive labour is also the reason the french trains are the worst performing rail system on cost metrics in europe. Sadly Corbyn wants to copy them. We saw what happened when Macron wanted to dismantle some of the restrictive practices!

All of this can self regulate with floating currencies. The euro was the big mistake.
The reason they tried alignment, is the EU wanted a superstate. It got the chicken and egg back to front.

What I want is the euro to disappear. For a new EU to be a cooperative trading zone each with own currency, that allows the currency shifts to stop the positive feedback, that makes the rich richer and the poorer countries poorer. In such a zone the prices of german currency would rise until their products are so expensive, portugal can compete. And when it does it can lower its taxes!

Joint standards can be helpful so long as they are optional. Mandatory only where safety is involved. Joint programmes used only where necessary eg police sharing and security.

The idea of the superstate run from Brussels, rather than trading club was the problem.

was that a "right" or a "wrong", then?

[Stolly]

Haha, you lot still going on and on and on and on 🙄

Here’s my prediction:

1. Boris wins the leadership contest hands down (with two thirds of the conservative membership borderline fascists by the sound of it, it’s a shoe in)

2. Boris tries to force the ‘no deal’ line of negotiation with the EU and gets absolutely fecking nowhere

3. A vote of no confidence in the government is lost by the tories and a general election is called

4. The Brexit party coupled with the growing swell of remain leaning parties hand the conservatives their arses at the election

5. A labour/lib dem/snp coalition get in

6. Boris loses his Uxbridge seat through coordinated pro remain tactical voting

😊😊😊

[Oracle]

This post illustrates the problem with rational discussion, and how momentum and Corbyn between them have taken politics into the sewer.

Name Calling others " racist" or " fascist" because they disagree with you, without trying to understand their point of view has led to Polarization at a time we need to unite behind a direction. Calling others words like " racist" or " fascist" is a disgraceful insult, but sadly that is the nature of momentums nastier politics.

We have a decision to go left or right at a t junction. We decided which in a referendum. It is A junction you cannot go straight on.
Our politicians are so determined to frustrate the democratic vote, they would have us crash into the wall rather than turn.

Those voting for boris are at least democrats. Fascist is a word far better applied of an undemocratic authoritarian EU that refuses to even negotiate, and it is certainly true of corbyns labour and momentum brown shirts that refuses to allow dissent. The way momentum turn on dissenting labour MPs is disgraceful, and no decent person should support such fascism.

Labour have no policy on brexit other than pure deceit. Not surprising considering the lifetime lack of intebrity of the leader. It changes daily. He will promise anything , remain and leave at the same time seemingly in the hope the electorate are stupid ( labour voters clearly are if they cannot see through this) he will say anything just for power, which no decent society should grant him. That is why labour voters are jumping ship.

If Boris has sense , when the latest attack from undemocratic grieve, boles letwin,cooper etc threatens to bring him down, he will call,the general election on a firm mandate of no deal if EU refuse to negotiate. On that basis farage will support him and target only the remainer tories in leave seats, and labour in the north, take out such pretentious cows as Lisa nandy and Yvette cooper. These constituencies will not vote Tory even to remove cooper, , but they would certainly vote brexit.

Then the Tory brexit coalition could win easily.
Labour may be majority remain. But the majority of their constituencies Are leave.
The Islington set don't give a toss about Wigan or pontefract.

Time will tell.

What has changed, and is changing , is varadkar is now having to come to terms with the consequence of his arrogance. Having failed to bully us into a backstop , he will be vilified by EU if he fails to build a border, and vilified by republicans if he does. He would do well to start negotiation, and that yields boris a chance.


At a time even apparently educated people are willing to support corbyns intent on financial destruction, and Corbyn is determined to alienate all our allies , to replace allies partnerships with Banana republics ( McDonnell said Cuba last week!) instead , anything can happen.

One thing is for certain. Corbyn has ensured that many businesses have already domiciles eksewhere, to shelter behind treaties on expropriation, ( e.g. Dyson) and smart money including mine has left the UK so there is nothing left for Corbyn to tax. Voting for Corbyn is voting for destruction of investments, destruction of jobs, destruction of public services, the edifice run by his union thugs like it was in the seventies. The supporters are too stupid to see it.

Haha, you lot still going on and on and on and on ��

Here’s my prediction:

1. Boris wins the leadership contest hands down (with two thirds of the conservative membership borderline fascists by the sound of it, it’s a shoe in)

2. Boris tries to force the ‘no deal’ line of negotiation with the EU and gets absolutely fecking nowhere

3. A vote of no confidence in the government is lost by the tories and a general election is called

4. The Brexit party coupled with the growing swell of remain leaning parties hand the conservatives their arses at the election

5. A labour/lib dem/snp coalition get in

6. Boris loses his Uxbridge seat through coordinated pro remain tactical voting

������

[DrPatrickBarry]

What I think is hilarious is the hypocrisy of you lefties.

I despise Corbyn, Diane Abbott, and all of his other cronies. But that does not stop me critising somebody who has gone too far in indicating his dislike of them.

[Oracle]

was that a "right" or a "wrong", then?

All these questions are nuanced.

The Euro didn't cause all Italy and greeces problems.

But It certainly has not only prevented solution, but it has also made and is making them a lot worse, past the point of no return. And still Brussels forcefeeds more of the medicine making them sick.

I pointed out that no less than the architect of the ECB and Euro rules states the house of cards will collapse. It is only a matter of time.