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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #3431
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by molehill View Post
    Latest stats for CV deaths by date of death.

    UK - peaked 12th November and dropping.

    England - peaked 12th November and dropping.

    Scotland - peaked 11th November and dropping.

    Wales - peaked 8th November and dropping


    Those stats for Wales are wrong already, from 5 hours ago:. Deaths involving Covid-19 have risen again in Wales to the highest weekly total since early May.
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/133...576651/photo/3
    Here is the graph.

    Note deaths are by date of death and not report date as the report date distorts.
    Those announced yesterday can be seen in brown and see how some go back to 11th November for Wales.
    The blue line is the rolling average.
    The rolling average has dropped 30% from it's peak on 8/11 to 17/11 and beyond that we will see if the trend continues.

    The drop that has happened cannot be anything to do with the firebreak lockdown.

    Data is the Governments.

    I don't know which figures you are referring to, but it could be that the deaths announced in the last week are up, but when applied to the actual date of death some of them fall in to a previous week.
    Richard Taylor
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  2. #3432
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    My figures for Wales are from the office national statistics posted on BBC news yesterday.
    Don't roll with a pig in poo. You get covered in poo and the pig likes it.

  3. #3433
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    Quote Originally Posted by molehill View Post
    My figures for Wales are from the office national statistics posted on BBC news yesterday.
    I think that will be the weekly report then, and the last one was up to 13th November, but only released yesterday.
    Week 46.
    Interesting to see how something is presented can create an impression that the situation is moving in a different direction that what it is.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...13november2020
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #3434
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    Damn statistics, too many people play with them, bend and shape them to their agenda.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55057642
    Don't roll with a pig in poo. You get covered in poo and the pig likes it.

  5. #3435
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    Quote Originally Posted by molehill View Post
    Damn statistics, too many people play with them, bend and shape them to their agenda.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55057642
    You can see the downward trend for Wales on the Government's own website

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...areaName=Wales

    England has flatlined. As WP says, that cannot have been caused by lockdown. I'm starting to suspect we're not going to see the 4,000 deaths per day after all.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deta...eaName=England

  6. #3436
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    'It will result in deaths. Of course it will.'

    As scientists warn the easing of Covid restrictions over Xmas could cause a third wave, Professor of Public Health Gabriel Scally says there's 'no doubt' that the virus will spread.

    He adds that the last thing we should do is let down our guard.

  7. #3437
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    Quote Originally Posted by molehill View Post
    Damn statistics, too many people play with them, bend and shape them to their agenda.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55057642
    Yes it confirmed it was w/e 13th November which actually aligns with the 8th November peak that I referred to.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  8. #3438
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    A work colleague of mine, in her mid 30’s I’d guess, contracted covid about ten days ago. An elderly neighbour of her’s had fallen in the street outside and she, together with another neighbour, went out to assist (they didn’t wear masks as they were hurrying to help someone in distress). Long story short they had to call an ambulance, wait for it to arrive and then were chatting to the paramedics and generally helping (at what she thought a sensible social distance) for about 10 to 15 minutes after they’d arrived before the paramedics then took the fall victim to hospital.

    Later that day one of the paramedics went down with covid symptoms and tested positive so my work colleague and her two small children (and her whole cul de sac) were all tested soon after. And yep she and the other good samaritan who’d gone out to help both tested positive.

    The key thing is that the paramedic felt absolutely fine when he was out on that call but managed to spread it to two people outdoors in about a space of ten minutes or so

    Sooooooo Christmas that might involve three family units unmasked, in doors for up to five days, doesn’t sound a great idea to me
    Last edited by Fellbeast; 25-11-2020 at 11:37 AM.

  9. #3439
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    Quote Originally Posted by Llani Boy View Post
    My son's best friend's older brother is a boarder at Sedbergh and he's not odd Mike!
    He's a good lad and as well as his rugby also does a bit of running.

    I'll have to check whether he his home so that I can isolate my son from his younger brother.
    The lad from the village who is a boarder at Sedbergh was fetched home last Wednesday after providing a negative test.

    He tells me that the army had rolled up a few days earlier and tested everyone which resulted in 157 positive pupils.
    He could have stayed but would have been confined to his room, including for meals, so decided to study online at home.
    He is going back up next week until the Christmas break.
    Visibility good except in Hill Fog

  10. #3440
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    Anyone still cheering-on the Barrington Declaration people and their simple solution of 'Focused Protection’ coupled with naturally-acquired herd immunity?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Covid-19.html

    Sweden admits it is seeing no sign of herd immunity slowing the spread of Covid-19 as number of cases soars.
    [...]
    with hospital admissions for coronavirus patients almost doubling each week in Sweden.
    [...]
    Anders Tegnell, architect of Sweden's lockdown-free strategy, had previously claimed that Sweden would fare better than other countries in the second wave after building up a herd immunity.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1761477.html

    Over 25 per cent of Sweden’s total coronavirus cases were recorded in November alone
    [...]
    It has seen the nation’s progress watched closely, particularly by those who believe the virus can be stopped naturally once it has spread sufficiently for large swathes of a population to develop antibodies.
    Sweden has so far seen no evidence of this happening, Dr Tegnell told a briefing in Stockholm on Tuesday. “We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now,” he said.
    [...]
    Last month, Dr Tegnell, who was one of the key architects of Sweden’s anti-lockdown approach, had said it is “futile and immoral” to seek herd immunity.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/disc...s-cases-spike/

    In July, Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said that Sweden’s approach had been as effective as a lockdown, and that allowing a slow spread of disease likely meant immunity in Sweden would be higher than elsewhere.

    Sweden should therefore ride out a second wave better than nearby Finland and Norway, which dodged the first wave, he argued.

    With such immunity now elusive, and Finland in particular seeing only a very limited rise in cases now, that argument has faded.

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