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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #3551
    Master Travs's Avatar
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    Well i've had to gracefully drop out of the Skirrid Fell Race later this month... a combination of us being in Tier 3, and the current ban on going into Wales, not to mention their impending increased restrictions, i messaged the RO and asked him to offer my place to a local.

    Although have entered the 50th Welsh 1000metres, which hopefully will go ahead as a normal race next summer!

  2. #3552
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    From Chris Giles, FT, with the last sentence from Owen Jones, The Guardian:

    "A cautious estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus since mid march has passed a new marker and stands at 80,100 Of these 75,200 have happened and the rest are estimates bringing lagged official data up to date When measured properly, it is clear that the second wave has been far less deadly than the first. My estimates suggest that excess deaths are now beginning to decline.

    Why should you believe these numbers? a) Because the updating model is proving remarkably accurate in the second wave (I'm surprised how accurate) b) This welcome feature stems from better Covid testing, so daily hospital deaths pick up roughly all excess deaths this time.

    FWIW - an extremely speculative estimate of the R number based on my excess deaths series suggests it was hovering around 1 just before lockdown and persistently went below 1 after Nov 2nd start of lockdown.

    "That means around 1 in every 832 Britons have so far died in the coronavirus pandemic, a hideous death toll made possible by a government which locked down too late and re-opened the economy without a functioning Test and Trace system."
    Are you OK? I used to find your posts interesting and coherent even if I disagreed with them. Now I'm struggling.
    Richard Taylor
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  3. #3553
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    Good question. I've no frame of reference here. Clearly this many people don't have covid. Although, I suspect a lot of people have respiratory symptoms at this time of year with various colds/flu so might be worried they do have it. Do we have any data on how many people are being routinely tested (ie, without symptoms)?

    Further to our ongoing discussion about the effects of false positives (and negatives), it's important to know whether people who are being tested have symptoms or not, since that affects how you interpret the data.

    From personal experience, people in the ONS screening study (like me) are included in these figures. And I've been tested about 6 times now without having any covid symptoms.
    Just back from a 3 hour walk on the hills. Very nice.

    Just a further mathematical issue with the data.

    Note that our areas are being judged on positive tests per 100,000.

    Made up figures here, but let's say Blackburn were turning up 6 positives from 1000 tests end August and early September, that equates to a local rate per 100,000 population of 600.

    Then the Govt issue their dictat that only symptomatic. The Local Authority echo that.

    They still get the 6 positives, only 800 test though as 200 of the asymptomatic drop off.

    Then they have a rate of 750 per 100k.

    A 25% increase - yet there are no more cases, they've just cut out some of the asymptomatic guinea pigs.

    That's an increase regardless of any issues with testing inaccuracies.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #3554
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    In normal times, 1 in 132 Britons die every year....a hideous death toll made possible by Life, a sexually transmitted, universally fatal disease!
    That's a surprising figure - I would have expected it to be 1/average life expectancy, say 1 in 80 or so.
    Although people die at younger ages for all sorts of reasons that figure is surely reflected in life expectancy so 1 in 132 seems quite good odds in the face of it.

  5. #3555
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Are you OK? I used to find your posts interesting and coherent even if I disagreed with them. Now I'm struggling.
    I think I'm OK! I find Chris and Owen interesting people to follow, and thought others might find them interesting too. The UK figures are so bad - per capita, the UK has seen more deaths from Covid than the USA has at every point in the pandemic - and yet lots barely raise an eyebrow, including the newsreaders on the BBC. It is good to see intelligent people taking the figures seriously.

  6. #3556
    Perhaps the UK figures are so bad because, prior to Covid, the NHS has been extraordinarily excellent in extending life for very old, very vulnerable people with lots of comorbidities, much more so than somewhere like the USA with it’s less loving health system. Then something new hits, and gets into care homes, and, oh dear. It’s why African countries have such low death rates, their average age is 15 or something. We don’t all start from the same place.
    My freedom does not end where your fear begins.

  7. #3557
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wetherby whaler View Post
    Perhaps the UK figures are so bad because, prior to Covid, the NHS has been extraordinarily excellent in extending life for very old, very vulnerable people with lots of comorbidities, much more so than somewhere like the USA with it’s less loving health system. Then something new hits, and gets into care homes, and, oh dear. It’s why African countries have such low death rates, their average age is 15 or something. We don’t all start from the same place.
    But remember, prior to Covid, the average 80 year old, with the average number of medical problems that an 80 year old has, would live for another 9 years if a man, and 10 years if a woman. I don't think we can attribute the high number of deaths in the UK to the NHS having left low hanging fruit - the pandemic has just been badly managed in the UK full stop.

  8. #3558
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    In normal times, 1 in 132 Britons die every year....a hideous death toll made possible by Life, a sexually transmitted, universally fatal disease!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mark G View Post
    That's a surprising figure - I would have expected it to be 1/average life expectancy, say 1 in 80 or so.
    The simple method of calculating the above figure would be to take the total UK population of 66m and divide it by the number of deaths per year of 660,000 i.e. 1 in 100!

    How the UK population is counted and how deaths are counted will significantly change the figure.
    e.g. the population and number of deaths may include tourists and migrants - both immigrants and emigrants.
    Last edited by XRunner; 01-12-2020 at 10:07 PM.
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  9. #3559
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    But remember, prior to Covid, the average 80 year old, with the average number of medical problems that an 80 year old has, would live for another 9 years if a man, and 10 years if a woman.
    and they still are
    Richard Taylor
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    Sid Waddell

  10. #3560
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    Really sad news - coronavirus has claimed Pete Bland 😔. There’s an announcement on Facebook

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