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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2361
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    So it seems that the test-and-trace system is to be saved by drafting in hundreds of management consultants.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ants-KPMG.html

    As someone I used to work with used to say - "Ah, yes, management consultants. The people who ask to borrow your watch and then tell you what time it is." (I hope I've not just offended any management consultants on here.)

  2. #2362
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stagger View Post
    What's the current percentage death rate for the under 75s?

    Nowt to worry about then.
    Not a problem unless it's you, but please keep being positive, someone has to be☺

  3. #2363
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    [QUOTE=Flem;666780]So it seems that the test-and-trace system is to be saved by drafting in hundreds of management consultants.
    But they are not just any management consultants , they are Super KPMG management consultants.

  4. #2364
    Quote Originally Posted by Flem View Post
    So it seems that the test-and-trace system is to be saved by drafting in hundreds of management consultants.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ants-KPMG.html

    As someone I used to work with used to say - "Ah, yes, management consultants. The people who ask to borrow your watch and then tell you what time it is." (I hope I've not just offended any management consultants on here.)
    My previous employers engaged a lot of consultants with whom I worked. One was CSC who produced a tome, great chunks of which were lifted directly from my original work without attribution.

    When I pointed this out their response was "But of course, you know more about these matters than anyone else in the company so it would be perverse if we didn't plagiarise your work." Which was a rather disarming response.

    In my experience consultants rarely brought greater insight into problems or better solutions; but being paid £thousands per day made their advice more acceptable to the management who had engaged them.

    I was once offered a "blank cheque" consultancy downsizing project (after I had retired) where the manager trying to engage me made it clear that my big attraction was that I was not an employee and so could recommend actions that would be unacceptable from someone working for the company - even though he knew what needed doing which was getting rid of hundreds of people.
    Last edited by Graham Breeze; 19-09-2020 at 12:00 AM.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  5. #2365
    A great quote I heard yonks ago but can’t remember who said it:

    “Consultants are the guys who come down from the hills after the battle is over and shoot the wounded” 😊

  6. #2366
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    I worked for Fairfield Footwear back in the 80s.

    They employed maybe 400-500 people across the Rochdale site and Richmond in North Yorkshire.

    They were struggling and brought in management consultants, who unbelievably decided to buy the company and demonstrate their skills in turning it round.

    I think it was December 88 they put in an initial £100k and then completed the transaction around March with a final £500k.

    It lasted 6 months.

    https://www.altberg.co.uk/the-altber...d-shoe-factory

    I found this article. Mike who seems to have put the piece together ran the Richmond factory at the time.

    It would have closed anyway as almost all the others have done.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  7. #2367
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Higher %s of false negatives as opposed to false positives doesn't necessarily lead to under-recording when the virus level is low because it is a higher % of a lower number.

    If FNs are 10% and FPs are 1% of tests.

    Test 100000 people randomly you should get around 100-200 positives at our recent levels. Say 100.

    Of those 100, you end up getting only 90 positives because of the 10% rate of FNs so that under represents.

    The other 99900, they will have mostly had correct negative results, but 999 will have had false positive results.

    So whilst 100 had it, 1089 are identified.

    NB. This is based on an illustration I read a month or so back from Heneghan. I'm not claiming it as my own work, but I've applied those figures to illustrate the problem.
    Hope my maths are correct

    It reminds me of a similar anomaly highlighted last Spring in the calculation of the R number where a total drop in numbers can be presented as an increase in R.
    Somehow this post evaded the usual forum peer review. Interesting now that Hancock has finally acknowledged a False Positive rate even though he says it's less than 1% it doesn't mean it is insignificant.

    As Professor Heneghan pointed out back in July "When virus levels in the population are very low, the chances of a test accurately detecting Covid-19 could be even less than 50 per cent – for reasons that are not widely understood."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...lse-positives-

    His example is interesting. It's behind a paywall, but I think you can read the article if you don't click on the black bar in the bottom of the screen and just scroll through. It seems to work for me anyway.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  8. #2368
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    Article written two months ago. Virus levels now much higher, so less of an issue.

    It's also impossible to create a 100% accurate test, lowest margin of error being the optimal.

  9. #2369
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    Iran.
    Whatever line you choose, it's not good.
    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/410/cp...n-download.jpg

  10. #2370
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    Some say the Heneghan article is almost 2 months old. That is true, but the article was written after local lockdowns in Leicester and Blackburn with others imminent.
    A local rise had been identified and it was a word of caution from the Prof. What was causing the rise and what about the knock on effect? It wasn't visible then and it hasn't materialised even now. Could it be false positives.

    Roll on two months and more are taking this seriously with the BBC, Sky and other outlets starting to ask questions about the false positive rate, including an MP raising it in the Commons this week.

    Professor Henegehan continues to suggest there is cause for concern.

    Some may also suggest that the rate of infection has increased since. That may be true. But PHE latest surveillance report 18 September 2020 assesses the incidence per 100,000 population in Bolton, the worst area as 212.7.
    So just over 0.2%

    The maths are still the same.

    Let's say your area is clear. There is no virus in the community. You test 1000 people randomly. No one should show positive.
    You only need a false positive rate of 0.2% and it would yield 2 positive cases.

    That would be enough to put you at the top of the England COVID league table alongside Bolton.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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