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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #991
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    Quote Originally Posted by Llani Boy View Post
    And two weeks quarantine when you come home
    Perfect

  2. #992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gambatte View Post
    My Mum, 71yr old lifelong resident in northern Italy, had Covid for like 2-weeks.
    Amazing she never had any flu-like symptoms, only minor unwell at stomach and back so when to the Dr told her she almost didn't believe it.
    Never had anything serious, symptoms wise, more weird/surreal than anything.
    Clear now. Phew...
    Good to hear she recovered so well. Was she tested, or was it assumed? To think that at one stage we looked aghast at what was happening in Italy - yet look what has happened here since.

  3. #993
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    I was having a look in to the R number today. There's more than one R number, but it seems the R0 number is what they are referring to.

    One of the sites I came across was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

    There is an interesting graph under "How 1,000 cases would increase under different infection rates".

    R 1.1 shows 1,000 cases will increase to 24,000 over 60 days. But there are other elements such as incubation time, and how long the infected person takes to pass on the infection to others.

    I've done the maths and the graph seems to be based on around 5 days transmission time, which is fair enough.

    I've done a spreadsheet so you can see the comparable effect in numbers side by side.
    R Table.jpg

    I find it interesting because when you hear the discussion about the R rate and the differing effect of a 0.9 and a 1.1 it can come across as just numbers bull-shit.

    However one thing Vallance said the other week was that the R rate is an average and we shouldn't be too bound to it as it can be distorted. Small pockets of high R such as care homes can drag the average up significantly.

    If interested you should read in conjunction with this.
    https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-...dont-tell-you/

    Here is a key part to show how R can be misleading.
    Let’s imagine that we had two epidemics, of equal size, one in the community and one in care homes. Say 1,000 people are infected in each, and in the community each person on average infects two people, while in the care homes on average each person infects three. The total R is 2.5[1].

    But now imagine you lock down and reduce both the R and the number of people infected, but by more in the community than in the care homes. Say that now there are 100 people infected in the community, and they each pass it on to an average of one person; and there are 900 people infected in the care homes, and they pass it on to an average of 2.8 people.

    Now your average R is 2.62[2]; it’s gone up!


    So if I could ask questions of No10 I would start with:

    We have up to 2000 new cases a day showing positive. Can you provide a breakdown of these new cases. Where in terms of geography and where in type of environment eg. general population, care home, hospital....?

    I suspect, based on reporting of the new cases in East Lancs that they are largely care home based so assuming that my next question would be:

    Has the Government considered a policy of speeding up lockdown, where cases seem to be negligible, but at the same time having a 14 day strict quarantine on all care homes where the R Rate seems to be highest?

    That's the sort of info I would like information on.

    Unfortunately the Journos have wasted around 4 days obsessing over Cummings.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #994
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    I was having a look in to the R number today. There's more than one R number, but it seems the R0 number is what they are referring to.

    One of the sites I came across was https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

    There is an interesting graph under "How 1,000 cases would increase under different infection rates".

    R 1.1 shows 1,000 cases will increase to 24,000 over 60 days. But there are other elements such as incubation time, and how long the infected person takes to pass on the infection to others.

    I've done the maths and the graph seems to be based on around 5 days transmission time, which is fair enough.

    I've done a spreadsheet so you can see the comparable effect in numbers side by side.
    R Table.jpg

    I find it interesting because when you hear the discussion about the R rate and the differing effect of a 0.9 and a 1.1 it can come across as just numbers bull-shit.

    However one thing Vallance said the other week was that the R rate is an average and we shouldn't be too bound to it as it can be distorted. Small pockets of high R such as care homes can drag the average up significantly.

    If interested you should read in conjunction with this.
    https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-...dont-tell-you/

    Here is a key part to show how R can be misleading.
    Let’s imagine that we had two epidemics, of equal size, one in the community and one in care homes. Say 1,000 people are infected in each, and in the community each person on average infects two people, while in the care homes on average each person infects three. The total R is 2.5[1].

    But now imagine you lock down and reduce both the R and the number of people infected, but by more in the community than in the care homes. Say that now there are 100 people infected in the community, and they each pass it on to an average of one person; and there are 900 people infected in the care homes, and they pass it on to an average of 2.8 people.

    Now your average R is 2.62[2]; it’s gone up!


    So if I could ask questions of No10 I would start with:

    We have up to 2000 new cases a day showing positive. Can you provide a breakdown of these new cases. Where in terms of geography and where in type of environment eg. general population, care home, hospital....?

    I suspect, based on reporting of the new cases in East Lancs that they are largely care home based so assuming that my next question would be:

    Has the Government considered a policy of speeding up lockdown, where cases seem to be negligible, but at the same time having a 14 day strict quarantine on all care homes where the R Rate seems to be highest?

    That's the sort of info I would like information on.

    Unfortunately the Journos have wasted around 4 days obsessing over Cummings.
    This came up on the briefing today - the 8,000 new cases a day - excluding hospitals and care homes - how are they catching it? Basically we don't know - or if we do know, they are not telling us.

  5. #995
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    This came up on the briefing today - the 8,000 new cases a day - excluding hospitals and care homes - how are they catching it? Basically we don't know - or if we do know, they are not telling us.
    I didn't see the briefing, but how do they come to that figure? They are reporting circa 2000 a day, so of course there is some extrapolation involved as they don't test everyone that gets it, but there has to be a lot of guesswork and where are the "hotspots" because the whole of North West England is down to less than 100 confirmed cases every day now, with large areas reporting 0.
    That's more than 10% of he UK population.

    In March and April my facebook was full of people self-isolating, unconfirmed mostly. I haven't seen one this month.

    Something doesn't add up.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  6. #996
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    This came up on the briefing today - the 8,000 new cases a day - excluding hospitals and care homes - how are they catching it? Basically we don't know - or if we do know, they are not telling us.
    Mike . Does it need explanation?

    The reality is covid was here long before the first cases were official. The symptom checkers were way oversimplified.

    We were then told not to report it unless desperate because of perennially claimed “ overstretched” medical resources. So nobody knows how many cases are happening outside official channels.

    This is true everywhere. When we had it in Portugal we were told not to report it, when Portugal had only 100 cases I’m official channels, we seemed to know half of them! and their symptom checker was no better than here.

    So there is official world and parallel world everywhere. Italian statistics agency was saying the ultimate view of current death toll could be double the amount already claimed. No idea where they think the difference is.

    I also wonder how many are exposed who are disposed not to get it, not just those who have it but are assymptomatic.
    It will be years if ever before a true picture evolves,
    Last edited by Oracle; 30-05-2020 at 08:53 PM.

  7. #997
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    The last couple of days has seen Lathkill Dale inundated with people and local roads almost impassable due to inconsiderate parking. Loads of flashy cars, personalised number plates etc. Barbecues lit and rubbish left in and alongside the river. Similar local beauty spots have seen the same.

    As I write this, a moorland fire near Stanage Edge is burning.

    Its time to open the pubs so that these arseholes can pursue their normal sunny day pastime of sitting in a beer garden all day and leave the countryside to those of us who respect it.

    A neighbour of mine, who this morning asked one of these twats to move their car as it was causing an obstruction in the village, has just had the police around as they have had a complaint of him making threats. It is no doubt untrue as he wouldn't have threatened them, he'd have just put them on their arse!
    Visibility good except in Hill Fog

  8. #998
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    Trouble is , a nations pent up wish to visit the countryside has been forced to delay till now, and combined with near perfect weather , there was inevitably an explosion in interest.

    It doesn’t excuse gross violations of the country code, but the volume is understandable.

    No doubt the reports of threatening conduct were seen as payback for the utter rudeness of many country side locals during lockdown. The closure of paths was not lawful either. People have memories.

    Quote Originally Posted by Llani Boy View Post
    The last couple of days has seen Lathkill Dale inundated with people and local roads almost impassable due to inconsiderate parking. Loads of flashy cars, personalised number plates etc. Barbecues lit and rubbish left in and alongside the river. Similar local beauty spots have seen the same.

    As I write this, a moorland fire near Stanage Edge is burning.

    Its time to open the pubs so that these arseholes can pursue their normal sunny day pastime of sitting in a beer garden all day and leave the countryside to those of us who respect it.

    A neighbour of mine, who this morning asked one of these twats to move their car as it was causing an obstruction in the village, has just had the police around as they have had a complaint of him making threats. It is no doubt untrue as he wouldn't have threatened them, he'd have just put them on their arse!
    Last edited by Oracle; 30-05-2020 at 09:19 PM.

  9. #999
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    This came up on the briefing today - the 8,000 new cases a day - excluding hospitals and care homes - how are they catching it? Basically we don't know - or if we do know, they are not telling us.

    I cycled 30 miles of a Lancashire section of the Leeds-Liverpool Canal today - in one direction (so yes I then had to cycle back to my car although that was a bit shorter by road) - and because it was mainly urban and it was hot and it was Saturday it was very busy and I encountered several thousand people.

    It was noticeable that many young people (ie teenagers) pay no regard to social distancing. Maybe that should not be a surprise but seeing a group of a dozen or so teenagers lying about chatting/ smoking/ listening to music/ swimming in the canal (!!) or wandering along in close proximity ceased to be unusual after a while.

    I'm not 15 any more so who am I to judge - but it's the truth.
    Last edited by Graham Breeze; 30-05-2020 at 10:58 PM.
    "...as dry as the Atacama desert".

  10. #1000
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    Saw a couple of large groups of kids near hidden in deep undergrowth near local lakes.
    But then they were there a month ago too.

    We need the “ serenity to accept what cannot be changed”
    Locking up kids was always a non starter long term.



    Quote Originally Posted by Graham Breeze View Post
    I cycled 30 miles of a Lancashire section of the Leeds-Liverpool Canal today - in one direction (so yes I then had to cycle back to my car although that was a bit shorter by road) - and because it was mainly urban and it was hot and it was Saturday it was very busy and I encountered several thousand people.

    It was noticeable that many young people (ie teenagers) pay no regard to social distancing. Maybe that should not be a surprise but seeing a group of a dozen or so teenagers lying about chatting/ smoking/ listening to music/ swimming in the canal (!!) or wandering along in close proximity ceased to be unusual after a while.

    I'm not 15 any more so who am I to judge - but it's the truth.

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