cheers Geoff, I did indeed.Originally Posted by GeoffB
cheers Geoff, I did indeed.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
We appear to have two trains of thought.
One isolate and protect
One return to normal
From the figures given above the return to normal looks the best option. But I do take on board that loved ones will be lost and a lot of people lost to it
Can anyone convince me otherwise with facts and figures?
It's not necessarily facts and figures Stagger, but a few things.
The first wave has clearly swept through most of the country and infected a reasonable proportion. Most of the fatalities have been in groups identified by Wheeze and others.
They can be shielded going forward.
So even a full on second wave could not take out the numbers the first one did all other things being equal if those vulnerable are shielded the caveat being that the virus doesn't mutate to a more potent form.
For anyone now being infected and getting to the point of hospitalisation, treatments have been developed that mean the recovery rate is much better than it was in March/April and they will continue to find new ways of handling the virus even without a vaccine.
Social practices have changed and even if we gave the green light to everyone tomorrow, everyone will be behaving differently. Rate of spread will be less if distancing, hand washing, face coverings... have any effect.
Finally we have a large proportion of the population either with an inherent immunity, or an acquired immunity, so there will be at least some natural barrier reducing the effect of the any second wave.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
We can all relax. The Russkies have got it sorted with a vaccine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718
We all know they've invested a lot in drug research over the years - ahem.
Am Yisrael Chai
Can someone please tell me when there has been a significant period with no covid deaths that would indicate that the first wave was over?. As I seem to ha missed it and I can't understand why folk are banging on about a second wave before the first is even behind us.
Depends on your definition of "significant", but look at Scotland and Wales.Can someone please tell me when there has been a significant period with no covid deaths that would indicate that the first wave was over?
England, however.......
....it's all downhill from here.
Don’t you mean “an extrapolation about what you think you have learnt from the first wave”. It’s definitely not a “we”. And have you asked your daughter and her husband for their thoughts on your let the virus run rampant grand idea??
Not no deaths but certainly very few. The latest weekly ONS bulletin came out yesterday, which gives causes of death mentioned on the death certificate. In the week ending 31st July, there were 183 deaths involving Covid in England, which is 2.2% of all deaths. In Wales there were 10 deaths - 1.9% of the total. For comparison purposes 12.5% in England and Wales included Influenza and Pneumonia (summer flu) on their death certificates.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ding31july2020
The figures have almost certainly dropped since. The daily Covid death totals in NHS England hospitals is now down to single figures.
Yeah for sure deaths are right down and new cases, although increasing a bit, still have to be viewed relative to the number of tests being done. And most of the economy has now re-opened and, being asked to wear masks aside, and with localised lockdowns as and when needed, I think we’re doing okay now. That’s though a really really really good explanation as to why Wheeze’s complete change of tactics would be completely daft, ridiculously high risk with a very high chance of things going completely tits up again
Last edited by Fellbeast; 12-08-2020 at 09:35 AM.
I take this quote from a fund manager diary this week, only a small part of his weekly report but this bit on New Zealand.
More seriously for all of us as we reopen are the consequences of staying safe. New Zealand has managed to contain the virus and is regarded by many as a model of good government. News from a Diary reader based there highlights the challenges that are now faced. The country is in recession, retail space vacancies continue to rise, the pain is spreading to hotels, car rentals, catering and leisure. Pay cuts are a fact of life. The borders are closed to foreigners and even returning Kiwis are only allowed back with an appointment. Quarantine hotels are operating at full capacity.
Given that an estimated one million New Zealanders live elsewhere in the world, those wanting to return home could be in for a long wait. What they will do when they get there isn’t clear. Against the background of economic gloom, house prices are rising both because of demand and cheap mortgages. At some stage every country will need to strike a balance between health and safety and economic reality. Investors will be kept busy repricing the world as the consensus settles on the answer.
The last part about a balance of H&S and economic reality is what we shall have to face and I think, what Wheeze is on about, we cannot lock ourselves away for ever, but how best to go about unlocking ourselves. I keep harking back to the centuries of TB which was an accepted fact of life - a lot of people caught it, many died and some lived. That may be the sort of mindset we have to adopt in the future if no workable vaccine appears.
Don't roll with a pig in poo. You get covered in poo and the pig likes it.
