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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #2851
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    "It's OK we're going to spend £12billion on a world beating system that tells you where the wolves are"
    "Well, it will show you where less than 60% of the wolves are"
    "Well, it will help a bit"
    "OK, so it's of marginal effectiveness and is struggling to make any difference".

    "Good job we gave that £12 billion to one of our mates, rather than hungry children, though".
    Last edited by Dave_Mole; 26-10-2020 at 09:03 AM.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  2. #2852
    You guys do realise that a reasonable estimate of daily new infections is over 41,500 don’t you, with maybe 500,000 people currently having the virus? So another c 5,000 deaths incoming growing now by say 415 each day?

  3. #2853
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    You guys do realise that a reasonable estimate of daily new infections is over 41,500 don’t you, with maybe 500,000 people currently having the virus? So another c 5,000 deaths incoming growing now by say 415 each day?
    Fake news! It's a pseudo-pandemic, brought on by testing too much!!!

  4. #2854
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    You guys do realise that a reasonable estimate of daily new infections is over 41,500 don’t you, with maybe 500,000 people currently having the virus? So another c 5,000 deaths incoming growing now by say 415 each day?
    Any idea what it would have been in March at the peak of the first wave?

    250,000 a day perhaps?

    Interesting thought.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
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  5. #2855
    Master Dave_Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post

    Interesting thought.
    or just speculation, counter opinion and misrepresentation - no point - pointless - sad really.
    ....it's all downhill from here.

  6. #2856
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Any idea what it would have been in March at the peak of the first wave?

    250,000 a day perhaps?

    Interesting thought.
    During the first peak, as there was no testing in place, I used the number of deaths to estimate infection rates, based on about 1% of people dying. The problem is, you're always looking at the rate from about 2 weeks ago, since that's how long it takes to die from it.

    So the peak rate was about 1000 deaths per day in the UK. I'd estimate the peak infection rate was about 100,000 per day.
    No longer "resting"

  7. #2857
    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Any idea what it would have been in March at the peak of the first wave?

    250,000 a day perhaps?

    Interesting thought.
    Good point but 250,000 sounds too high. I know they reckoned by May/June c 3.5 million had caught it. Just dividing number of deaths by 0.01 is a rough rule of thumb using the 1% mortality rate. So using the within 28 day mortality figure that would mean 4.5 million of the population have had it but, given that the real death figure might be nearer 60,000 that might be 6 million. That means that there’s still 60 million of us waiting to catch it!

    There’s some thought that the current mortality rate, clustered around northern and midlands cities in the main, might be a bit higher than before, despite better hospital treatments, because on average there are more poorer people in the north than the south, where the first wave mainly did its damage
    Last edited by Fellbeast; 26-10-2020 at 11:26 AM.

  8. #2858
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Both Noel and Stolly - I agree the 250k sounds high and SAGE have talked about 100k.

    My 250k is just speculation, taking the Valance 50,000 cases a day in October would lead to 200 deaths a day in November.

    20% of the peak death rate, 20% of the peak case rate.

    So it's not pie in the sky, as some might suggest.

    You can then look at it from the other side, the start of the pandemic.

    1 person, infecting 4 others every 5 days - the Imperial assessment pre measures, leads to 250k per day by around day 50 of the pandemic.

    Day 50 would be before any measures came in to place.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
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  9. #2859
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
    Good point but 250,000 sounds too high. I know they reckoned by May/June c 3.5 million had caught it. Just dividing number of deaths by 0.01 is a rough rule of thumb using the 1% mortality rate. So using the within 28 day mortality figure that would mean 4.5 million of the population have had it but, given that the real death figure might be nearer 60,000 that might be 6 million. That means that there’s still 60 million of us waiting to catch it!

    There’s some thought that the current mortality rate, clustered around northern and midlands cities in the main, might be a bit higher than before, despite better hospital treatments, because on average there are more poorer people in the north than the south, where the first wave mainly did its damage
    I would be very surprised if the overall mortality rate is higher than in the spring. Back then a fair chunk of deaths were of people in care homes. One would hope that the mistakes that were made then such as releasing people from hospitals into care homes, lack of testing and inadequate PPE will not be repeated. At least not to the same extent. There are the better treatments as well, which you mentioned.

    You are using an infection fatality rate of 1% but that is on the high side of the studies that have been done. Most now seem to put it at between 0.5% and 0.66% (some lower). Even Imperial College revised their initial 0.9% estimate to 0.66%.

  10. #2860
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    I would be very surprised if the overall mortality rate is higher than in the spring. Back then a fair chunk of deaths were of people in care homes. One would hope that the mistakes that were made then such as releasing people from hospitals into care homes, lack of testing and inadequate PPE will not be repeated. At least not to the same extent. There are the better treatments as well, which you mentioned.

    You are using an infection fatality rate of 1% but that is on the high side of the studies that have been done. Most now seem to put it at between 0.5% and 0.66% (some lower). Even Imperial College revised their initial 0.9% estimate to 0.66%.
    Good to have you back Muddy
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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