Coronavirus

[Witton Park]

NHSTriage.jpg

Hopefully they will be wrong and the uptick they found was a short-term one driven by the schools going back.

If they are wrong, and the figures fall back, then it has perhaps already started, so the measures would not be the reason even if they claimed it.

[Fellbeast]

As for your spoof graph Witton, they didn’t illustrate deaths at 50,000 as likely in 3 weeks time but potential cases. Deaths as a percentage of cases identified will come down the line but clearly wouldn’t be anything like in your spoof graph

[Dave_Mole]

The trouble is, if the real figures now turn out in a few weeks time to be stupendously lower that ‘illustrated’, will they be able to sell that as their early warning having the desired effect or will they just be laughed off the stage for scare-mongering?

Whereas, if they continue to rise, they can blame the public for not obeying the rules, rather than their inadequate measures.......

[Fellbeast]

Whereas, if they continue to rise, they can blame the public for not obeying the rules, rather than their inadequate measures.......

I think their exponential weekly doubling graph was ‘the measure’ (that they hope will change people’s habits) - the other bits and bobs announced by Boris are really just frippery. Although he had to announce them all po faced and (he thinks) Winston Churchilly obvs

[Dave_Mole]

I think their exponential weekly doubling graph was ‘the measure’ (that they hope will change people’s habits)

Yes, but cases/admissions/deaths are still rising, just not quite as quickly as doubling every seven days. Not sure how pubs closing an hour early (and consequently now opening an hour early to get around it) will make any difference....

[Muddy Retriever]

Yeah I think the doubling thing, like the old rice on a chessboard parable, was just said to jolt the general public into taking things much more seriously to be honest.

The trouble is, if the real figures now turn out in a few weeks time to be stupendously lower that ‘illustrated’, will they be able to sell that as their early warning having the desired effect or will they just be laughed off the stage for scare-mongering?

To be fair, the new measures when they came were much less stringent than expected and I doubt they will have that much of an effect one way or the other. So by mid October we should be able to judge whether their warnings were justified or simply scaremongering.

[Derby Tup]

Good point Muddy

[Mossdog]

Teesdale has been thronging with visitors this week so far, and in Barnard 'Spec Savers' Castle this morning it was packed. I meet up with a few friends (don't worry we were less than 7!), two of whom run holiday cottage businesses. They were very pleased to announce that they're fully booked up, one well into March 2021! This, in their experience, was exceptional.

However, we got to thinking, how would the local hospitality industry cope (presumably similarly all over the UK), when pubs, restaurants and cafes, and the like, have vastly reduced capacity. I can't envisage so many visitors/tourists being satisfied with remaining in their B&B rooms or holiday cottages, when they might want to be eating and drinking out during the day or of an evening.

However, no longer are you able to simply stroll in through a pub door and elbow your way to the bar. You have to be seated. Consequently, there will be a much stricter limit on how many customers might be accommodated. You might also imagine pubs, restaurants and cafes being none too pleased when a 'Jonny/Jenny-no-mates' arrives at the door to occupy a whole table to themselves with his or her lonely coffee, when the family of four waiting at the threshold for a table might set the till ringing with their orders.

[Witton Park]

Teesdale has been thronging with visitors this week so far, and in Barnard 'Spec Savers' Castle this morning it was packed. I meet up with a few friends (don't worry we were less than 7!), two of whom run holiday cottage businesses. They were very pleased to announce that they're fully booked up, one well into March 2021! This, in their experience, was exceptional.

However, we got to thinking, how would the local hospitality industry cope (presumably similarly all over the UK), when pubs, restaurants and cafes, and the like, have vastly reduced capacity. I can't envisage so many visitors/tourists being satisfied with remaining in their B&B rooms or holiday cottages, when they might want to be eating and drinking out during the day or of an evening.

However, no longer are you able to simply stroll in through a pub door and elbow your way to the bar. You have to be seated. Consequently, there will be a much stricter limit on how many customers might be accommodated. You might also imagine pubs, restaurants and cafes being none too pleased when a 'Jonny/Jenny-no-mates' arrives at the door to occupy a whole table to themselves with his or her lonely coffee, when the family of four waiting at the threshold for a table might set the till ringing with their orders.

I think the urban pub will be worst affected.

Most rural ones offer food around here and their peak selling time is earlier. Not many people sit down to eat after 8:00pm.

I think the Govt could have gone for 11:00pm and they wouldn't have had much resistance. A Times journo has apparently been leaked info that the 10:00pm closing time has not been modelled or assessed.
I haven't seen it, just heard on a news report earlier.

In terms of the reduced capacity it will hit margin, but there is the mitigation of the VAT rate cut to 5% on food and non-alcoholic drinks.

It won't fully compensate but maybe help them keep going.

[Witton Park]

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3702/rr-2

Let me summarise my view: children and young people have a great deal to lose from measures that restrict their education, social development and freedom and have relatively little to lose from the infection. Older people like myself (67 years of age, retired, married and an Indian male) have little to lose from restrictions. Indeed, several friends and colleagues have welcomed them as a restful period when they become more prosperous. I have much to lose from the infection. Nonetheless, I am not prepared to sacrifice the well-being of children and young people for society to try to reduce my risk to zero, which is near impossible until the virus is vanquished worldwide. I believe society should concentrate the scarce resources we have to protect those who are frail or for other reasons cannot protect themselves. People in a privileged position like myself have to apply well-known solutions: hygiene, social distancing and face masks.

Raj Bhopal
Emeritus Professor of Public Health