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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #3441
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    Incidentally, I've just entered my first race abroad for 12 months, next July in the Pyrenees. I'm hoping I'll have been vaccinated by then, and that the race will actually go ahead, but I think I'll hold-off on committing any more money other than the race fee for a while. I'm optimistic, but not that optimistic!

    (Sorry if anyone thinks I'm going off-topic and sullying the ethos of this Fell Running Forum by mentioning a trail race.)

  2. #3442
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    It's great to see anyone actually talking about running.

    Similarly, I've entered Helvellyn triathlon next September and have hopes that mass vaccination will have returned things to normal by then.

    I'm really not sure when vaccination will start to kick in to the point where we can return to normal. Presumably if we can vaccinate vulnerable people this winter, that will bring the death rate down substantially. But there will probably be a lengthy period of continuing social distancing while trying to reopen the economy as much as possible. I'm not sure what that means for races - fingers crossed eh.
    No longer "resting"

  3. #3443
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    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...t&country=~SWE

    Meanwhile in Sweden, away from selective and out of context propaganda.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...m?country=~GBR
    You can also look at cases in the UK

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...e?country=~FRA
    or France

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...y?country=~DEU
    how about Germany?

    and find that the majority of positive cases have occurred in the last 2 months.

    Maybe it's something to do with no mass testing of the public in March/April?
    Last edited by Witton Park; 25-11-2020 at 05:34 PM.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  4. #3444
    Sweden’s recent deaths are again almost exclusively in care homes in over 75s, which, incidentally are more akin to our hospices than the jolly hotel that my FIL lives in. Report in the Guardian I think but can’t be bothered finding it. It seems that the more successful a country has been pre-Covid in keeping old, frail, people with dementia and other age related diseases alive in a modicum of comfort (see Western Europe), the worse they have been hit by a new, virulent disease. Well no shit Sherlock. Africa seems to be doing fine. Oh wait...

  5. #3445
    Moderator noel's Avatar
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    Thanks WP. Lots of useful data here. And nice to be able to compare different countries.

    I notice this graph says "recent days may undercount deaths". Is that because it takes a while for some people who have died to be added to the data? In which case, if we're looking at deaths by date of death, the most recent few days will be undercounting a bit. And I know this is Sweden, not the UK - but will the same be true here?

    The reason I mention this is that I'm hoping the current dip is a genuine reduction, since it's not really showing yet on the daily death rate such as this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    which shows reporting date, not death date.
    No longer "resting"

  6. #3446
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
    Thanks WP. Lots of useful data here. And nice to be able to compare different countries.

    I notice this graph says "recent days may undercount deaths". Is that because it takes a while for some people who have died to be added to the data? In which case, if we're looking at deaths by date of death, the most recent few days will be undercounting a bit. And I know this is Sweden, not the UK - but will the same be true here?

    The reason I mention this is that I'm hoping the current dip is a genuine reduction, since it's not really showing yet on the daily death rate such as this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
    which shows reporting date, not death date.
    If you see the announced deaths and cases tonight, they are announced on a Wednesday but will be a combination from other than last week.
    Reporting date, rather than actual date.
    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/133...129602/photo/1
    This link shows it well.

    Positives added 24th are shown by specimen date. If you think about it the date of the test is the key date, not the date of the result.

    The gold bars at the end show the specimen date of all those reported that day and it also means when they show the rolling average to give an idea of direction, they don't show it right to the end of the bar chart.

    I've avoided worldometers recently as I get warnings flagged up about the security of the site.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  7. #3447
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    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    Meanwhile in Sweden, away from selective and out of context propaganda.


    I must admit, WP, although you don't seem to make many jokes on this forum, when you do make one it's often a gem!

    "Meanwhile in Sweden, away from selective and out of context propaganda." I think that's your best yet!

    Mr Pot, may I introduce you to Mr Kettle?


  8. #3448
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    Heard a doctor talking about this earlier.

    COVID-19 is an acceptable direct or underlying cause of death for the purposes of completing the MCCD, even without the results of a positive test


    from

    "Verification of Death (VoD), Completion
    of Medical Certificates of Cause of
    Death (MCCD) and Cremation Forms in
    the Community in England and Wales"

    erring on the side of Covid.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  9. #3449
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    The devil's in the detail there WP. If someone has obvious covid symptoms and dies without having had a positive test, that makes perfect sense. You've highlighted some instances where it seemed to make less sense.

    I'm guessing there will be stats on this somewhere (or maybe released later).
    No longer "resting"

  10. #3450
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    Well we've been bumped up to Tier 3, and seemingly the whole county thrown in with the entirety of Cov, Birmingham, Black Country.

    This does seem a little far-fetched, given the size of Warwickshire as a county, stretching from Staffordshire in the north, almost down to Gloucester and Oxford in the south. Before this lockdown, the county was split up into smaller areas for tier purposes.

    Hoping the review in a couple of weeks brings it back down so i can get to the Skirrid race!!!

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