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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1011
    Master Travs's Avatar
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    Borrowdale Fell Race cancelled...

  2. #1012
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    You assume the tests are better than a random number generator!

    Validation of the tests has been a problem for obvious reasons. Like not knowing who has had it or who has not, for the purposes of validation!

    Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
    I haven't had chance to look at the ONS to check, but I have seen critique of the 8000 figure.

    It is claimed that the figure is an average. ONS have taken the results of their surveys and calculated the average number of daily cases to 24th May.

    So if that is the case and it's an 8000 average, by the path the infection rate is taking the situation at the end of the period would be well below the 8000 average, if it is accepted that the calculation of the ONS holds water.

    It also seems quite misleading to present it as "we have 8000 daily new cases...." at the end of May.

  3. #1013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    You assume the tests are better than a random number generator!

    Validation of the tests has been a problem for obvious reasons. Like not knowing who has had it or who has not, for the purposes of validation!
    I personally don't assume anything from the tests, which is why I am questioning some of the information being put forward and the 8,000 figure looks completely bogus because even if you accept a degree of validity, it is not 8000 now.

    It was presented as "Oh well we know the Govt figures for positive tests is only 2000 or less atm, but we know from the ONS that its 8,000 atm"

    and that is patently not true.


    Just a further thought on the R number.

    I put some figures forward on Post 993 looking at the R number for Covid.

    The R number for CV if we took no action is thought to be around 3, although I have seen as much as 5.7

    Consider the UK took no action until 14th March, which is about the time we started the social distancing followed by further measures the following weekend.

    Assuming a R rate of 3 without intervention, just 1 infected person on the assumption of 5 day cycle would mean that by day 71, the infection would have got to 5 million in the population.

    In France they have established hat it was there in December.

    If it had been here on January first, then by the time the Govt started taking measures, we would have been up to 5 million infected if the R rate of 3 is valid.

    If there is any weight to this argument, then a lot of other things fall in to place.

    Could the UK have been 4-8 weeks behind France in getting it's first case - highly unlikey - nigh on impossible.

    Consider also that this R rate calculation is based on 1 person - but at all times new people are being added in as more infected people are coming in from China and other places in the weeks following the first infected case, adding a multiplier effect the first case.

    So it's quite possible looking at the maths and the R Rate that 10 million + had been infected by day 71 in the UK.

    Or

    The R Rate of the virus has been over hyped. It isn't in reality 3, it must be far lower.

    How could 5-10 million be infected by mid March without us knowing?

    Well mostly because those infected first had mild symptoms. The ones out circulating, the young, working population would not feel symptoms or feel cold like symptoms.

    The frail would be the last to get infected as they are not as exposed as the general public.

    As in France, the first wave of deaths here would not be put down as COVID - there was not test for one.
    Last edited by Witton Park; 01-06-2020 at 04:22 PM.
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  4. #1014
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    Teachers taking law into own hands.
    Refusing to do the job they are paid to do, which should be opening schools.
    Aided and abetted by labour councils. Also largely at home on full pay.

    The moral hazard of home on full pay demonstrated.

    If factories had taken the attitude of teachers, they and we would have starved.
    A generation of kids whose education is now substandard.
    Do the unions care? Not a jot.

  5. #1015
    Quote Originally Posted by Travs View Post
    Borrowdale Fell Race cancelled...
    Much more serious than anything to do with Cummings.
    I haven't done Borrowdale for quite a few years as I am usually away but I hope eventually to wear my 25th Borrowdale T shirt to the 50th race, which will now be a year later I suppose.
    Last edited by Mark G; 01-06-2020 at 04:57 PM.

  6. #1016
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    Teachers taking law into own hands.
    Refusing to do the job they are paid to do, which should be opening schools.
    Aided and abetted by labour councils. Also largely at home on full pay.

    All the teachers and councillors I know have been working full time from home.

  7. #1017
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    No they are not. They pretend they are.
    And the ones I know are certainly not putting in more than half a day.

    The kids are given short video sessions.
    Nothing like the full time education they are paid to deliver.
    Whilst refusing to do the things teachers are paid to do: Like go into work or mark homework.

    They are detroying the life chances of poor kids - many dont have computers. So the sop to teachers consciences is a total #fail.

    My grandkids are getting one hour , they pay for a full time education!
    But worse than any of that, they are stopping other parents working and earning who are forced to look after kids.



    Quote Originally Posted by MattPo View Post
    Teachers taking law into own hands.
    Refusing to do the job they are paid to do, which should be opening schools.
    Aided and abetted by labour councils. Also largely at home on full pay.

    All the teachers and councillors I know have been working full time from home.
    Last edited by Oracle; 01-06-2020 at 07:41 PM.

  8. #1018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Teachers taking law into own hands.
    Refusing to do the job they are paid to do, which should be opening schools.
    Aided and abetted by labour councils. Also largely at home on full pay.

    The moral hazard of home on full pay demonstrated.

    If factories had taken the attitude of teachers, they and we would have starved.
    A generation of kids whose education is now substandard.
    Do the unions care? Not a jot.
    Fully agree.

    It's not right been fit to work but not in work.

    I also think everyone who was not at work what ever the sector should have dropped to 80% pay
    A quote,

    "The greatest accomplishment is not in never falling, but in rising again after you fall."

  9. #1019
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    A lot of people on a lot less than 80% pay. It's 80% capped at 2,500 per month.
    Last edited by Travs; 01-06-2020 at 07:47 PM.

  10. #1020
    Master Witton Park's Avatar
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    I've had snippets of info from parents at the club.

    Looks like the local Private school is doing sterling work with online video classes and regular, routine work.
    State secondary schools seem patchy.
    Primary schools, may as well forget it.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

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