https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...565504/photo/1
This guy must have time on his hands
This Wales one will be interesting. He's taken the Welsh Govt forecasts without their firebreak, with a 2 week and also a 3 week break and he plots it daily and updates.
If you look at the way the Welsh believe their current lockdown will take effect, it is moving the peak back, squashing it a little from end December in to end January.
But even with the 3 week break, deaths are forecast to be higher from end Jan onwards and this only accounts for "with Covid".
So the economic hit (that will be carried by the English) will be for a short term effect that will be clawed back somewhat next year.
But consider they are forecasting more deaths than Spring 2020, which I think is nigh on impossible, but what it does mean is they'll be able to claim it worked if they avoid their over-forecast doomsday scenario.