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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1111
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    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...=story-twitter

    Interesting - the last 7 paragraphs in particular.

  2. #1112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...=story-twitter

    Interesting - the last 7 paragraphs in particular.
    It’s an interesting article. But what if a reliable vaccine can’t be developed? (there still isn’t one for HIV nearly 40 years later)

    What do we do then?

  3. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
    It’s an interesting article. But what if a reliable vaccine can’t be developed? (there still isn’t one for HIV nearly 40 years later)

    What do we do then?
    I have no doubt they will come up with a vaccine - how effective it will be is the question - will it convey life long effective immunity like polio, tetanus, and MMR, or will it need to be given annually like 'flu, either because of antigenic drift ('flu) or waning immunity (the Coronaviruses that are amongst the causes of the common cold).
    It is interesting that we do not have a vaccine for colds - is it because it is usually a trivial illness, or because there is so much money to be made in treating the symptoms. Apparently if you infect people with one of the cold inducing Coronaviruses, immunity wanes within a year, so they can be infected again, though their symptoms, if any, will usually be milder.
    It would seem that about half of us have cross reacting immunity to Covid 19 from other Coronaviruses, which may help to explain why some are resistant to infection, or have trivial or no symptoms, despite being infected.

  4. #1114
    Master Wheeze's Avatar
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    The search for a vaccine is a red herring.
    The stats now show that the virus kills mainly old or ill people.
    The death rates in younger healthy people is similar to influenza.i.e. just under 500 per year.
    It really is time to release the healthy under 60's back to a normal life.
    Everyone else can take precautions ranging from current distancing/masking/hygiene regimes to full shielding.
    As a fit 61 year old I think I can manage to keep current hygiene habits and I've NO interest in going to Niketown!!
    Simon Blease
    Monmouth

  5. #1115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    It really is time to release the healthy under 60's back to a normal life.
    Definitely. I am getting increasingly concerned about the effects the current restrictions are having on the under-20's in particular. Never mind education, it's the effect of social isolation that I am really worried about. I don't think those in authority understand how important it is for children to play with their friends, and for teenagers to hang out together. But our leaders will then express surprise when levels of anti-social behaviour among young people start rising.
    In his lifetime he suffered from unreality, as do so many Englishmen.
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  6. #1116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    The search for a vaccine is a red herring.
    The stats now show that the virus kills mainly old or ill people.
    The death rates in younger healthy people is similar to influenza.i.e. just under 500 per year.
    It really is time to release the healthy under 60's back to a normal life.
    Everyone else can take precautions ranging from current distancing/masking/hygiene regimes to full shielding.
    As a fit 61 year old I think I can manage to keep current hygiene habits and I've NO interest in going to Niketown!!
    If the under 60s are released the effect will of course leak into the older age groups and the younger vulnerable people. Social distancing is already a problem locally and from what I have seen even worse elsewhere - if "release" occurred it would become non existent.
    I agree we need to try to head back towards normal for mental/physical/economic health, but we need to think carefully about how we do this.
    Look at New York - 1 in 400 dead - and that figure is a month out of date, and it includes quite a few youngsters.

  7. #1117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
    If the under 60s are released the effect will of course leak into the older age groups and the younger vulnerable people. Social distancing is already a problem locally and from what I have seen even worse elsewhere - if "release" occurred it would become non existent.
    I agree we need to try to head back towards normal for mental/physical/economic health, but we need to think carefully about how we do this.
    Look at New York - 1 in 400 dead - and that figure is a month out of date, and it includes quite a few youngsters.
    If the R rate is 3 without intervention, as the experts say, then it would have taken around 10-12 weeks to go through the whole population.

    If we'd have isolated those of a certain age, it would have been done by now.
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  8. #1118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheeze View Post
    The search for a vaccine is a red herring.
    The stats now show that the virus kills mainly old or ill people.
    The death rates in younger healthy people is similar to influenza.i.e. just under 500 per year.
    It really is time to release the healthy under 60's back to a normal life.
    Everyone else can take precautions ranging from current distancing/masking/hygiene regimes to full shielding.
    As a fit 61 year old I think I can manage to keep current hygiene habits and I've NO interest in going to Niketown!!
    ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

    This
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  9. #1119
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    Mike, if the more vulnerable groups keep up the various strategies now available then there should not be any significant leak. Just let the under 60's get on with it! I am quite prepared to continue with my social distancing etc It doesn't matter if I pass by a group of infected 40 year olds. My distancing etc strategies should keep me just as safe as they do now.
    Simon Blease
    Monmouth

  10. #1120
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    And the current regs are a farce! I can happily join a scrum to squeeze into Niketown but am not allowed to see my grandchildren?? Stupid!!
    Simon Blease
    Monmouth

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