Coronavirus

[molehill]

As proven (not) by countries that did take action sooner like Germany? New Zealand? They locked down earlier and could therefore un-lockdown sooner

As has been said before, comparing New Zealand with UK in any way is irrelevant and don't know why people (like yourself) even mention it. Totally different scenario and they still have to address how they will replace the tourism industry, they are not sailing into the future with all hunky dory.
Germany is closer but still massive differences to UK, as are most countries, far too early for direct comparisons.

[Fellbeast]

It was ever thus. I remember years ago watching Shogun. Even when it was set in the early 1600’s the Japanese regularly bathed and were disgusted at the stench of the English sailors who would have a bath once a year at most.

One of my favourite books 😊

[Fellbeast]

As has been said before, comparing New Zealand with UK in any way is irrelevant and don't know why people (like yourself) even mention it. Totally different scenario and they still have to address how they will replace the tourism industry, they are not sailing into the future with all hunky dory.
Germany is closer but still massive differences to UK, as are most countries, far too early for direct comparisons.

I agree that things still haven’t played out and there’s still plenty unknown to come. Our standing in the world league table though, at this part of the ‘season’, isn’t great is it?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data

[molehill]

I think it was fair enough to get Brits home but they should have been required to quarantine when they were back.

Most of the early UK infections came from Spain and Italy. I suppose I’m open to the charge of speaking with the benefit of hindsight but it is a real pity we didn’t have controls in place back then.

I did read that there were 1.3 million Brits abroad (we were 2 of them), which puts the problem into perspective. Not letting them back in was not an option - totally unnaceptable to all labour voters - and processing them on entry to UK plus enforcing quarantine, doubt it?

[Mike T]

The main determinant of how each country has done was how many cases they already had at lockdown - we had far too many - and this is not just in hindsight - many were locking down weeks ahead of the official date.

The message that we should not get the infection to protect others as well as ourselves seems to be fading rapidly.

[Witton Park]

The main determinant of how each country has done was how many cases they already had at lockdown - we had far too many

how do you know?

Probably only Germany had any grasp on how many they had of the western nations and even there they largely wasted their testing capacity on the young.

[Mike T]

how do you know?

Which - it being the main determinant, or how many cases we had?

In fact both are true - we had rising and large numbers of cases and deaths; R always comes down with meaningful lockdown - as opposed to "encouragement" - though there is a lag measured in weeks.

[molehill]

Our local surgery posts updates on the situation in the area they cover, today they said "We remain largely unaffected by the virus".
So everything working fine in one remote part of Wales, I'll take that .

[Muddy Retriever]

Which - it being the main determinant, or how many cases we had?

In fact both are true - we had rising and large numbers of cases and deaths; R always comes down with meaningful lockdown - as opposed to "encouragement" - though there is a lag measured in weeks.

Modelling done by the University of Bristol suggests the peak of infections was about a week before lockdown. Deaths in England and Wales peaked 8th-9th April, On average they would have become infected 23 days earlier. (Symptoms take on average 5.2 days to appear and death takes place 17.8 days after symptoms first appear.)

People were already voluntarily adopting social distancing measures before the lockdown was enforced. Lots of people were working from home, large scale gatherings had stopped and pubs, restaurants and theatres were beginning to close. This was one of the flaws with the Imperial College modelling, it suggested nobody would change their behaviour without being forced.

[Witton Park]

Which - it being the main determinant, or how many cases we had?

In fact both are true - we had rising and large numbers of cases and deaths; R always comes down with meaningful lockdown - as opposed to "encouragement" - though there is a lag measured in weeks.

The reason I ask Mike, is that in the UK we only had very limited testing and so the assessments of how many had it are nothing more than estimates and the range of estimates go from hardly any, to half the population, so to work out what the situation was in reality seems like just picking a side.

and I don't think there's any better data from elsewhere in Europe.