Coronavirus

[gej]

I've not yet returned to the office from furlough, but our risk assessment for working from the office basically says... "air con will be switched off, so if you're hot, open a window...."

I think it depends on the type of aircon - local or centralised, % recirculation.
At my work the test department for example cant really not use aircon, as the test procedure specifies a fairly narrow range of ambient temperature.

[Witton Park]

I think it’s your understanding of R that is the problem 😉

I've made a few posts about R.

If you want to point out a flaw, feel free to do so.

So far you haven't. You've just trolled from the sidelines.

[Fellbeast]

I've made a few posts about R.

If you want to point out a flaw, feel free to do so.

So far you haven't. You've just trolled from the sidelines.

What the heck am I ‘trolling’ about. Or does troll mean disagree?

[Fellbeast]

I don’t know if you subscribe on-line but this article in the Telegraph explains some of the problems with the R number https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...d-way-measure/

[Mike T]

For crying out loud!

"Because lots of people haven't yet had the virus"

yet highlighted is a report suggesting R of 4 up until W/C 23/3 which means lots of people must have had the virus.

It can't be both.

It can be both! R does not tell you how many have got it/have had it - it simply tells you how many are infected by the average person with infection.

Most have not had it because most have not yet been exposed to it; when exposed, most get it. Of those, all are asymptomatic to start with, yet can spread it; some never develop significant symptoms, a % never develop any symptoms. Of course some unlucky ones end up in hospital, some very unlucky ones die.

[Oracle]

It can be both! R does not tell you how many have got it/have had it - it simply tells you how many are infected by the average person with infection.

Most have not had it because most have not yet been exposed to it; when exposed, most get it. Of those, all are asymptomatic to start with, yet can spread it; some never develop significant symptoms, a % never develop any symptoms. Of course some unlucky ones end up in hospital, some very unlucky ones die.

Out of curiosity what is the evidence that most get it when exposed to it?

[Fellbeast]

Out of curiosity what is the evidence that most get it when exposed to it?

I think the percentages who got it in the Anglesey meat processing plant (c 40% or so) and the German one (1300 odd out of 2000 workers) is pretty strong evidence

[Witton Park]

Trolling in my opinion is disagreeing without explaining why.

You have suggested I don't understand how R works, but you haven't advised why.

Posts #1225 and/or #1229 set it out.

As for the Telegraph article, I think we covered this before you joined the forum in your current guise but you may well have read and or commented on it in one of your other guises.
Simpson's Paradox shows how R can distort the reality, especially marked when the cases are low and small pockets of infection make the R number jump - as pointed out by Dr Jenny Harries in her appearance at the Downing St press conference on Monday when she advised that the R number can mislead at this stage of the pandemic.

https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-...dont-tell-you/
This might help you.

[Fellbeast]

Trolling in my opinion is disagreeing without explaining why.

You have suggested I don't understand how R works, but you haven't advised why.

Posts #1225 and/or #1229 set it out.

As for the Telegraph article, I think we covered this before you joined the forum in your current guise but you may well have read and or commented on it in one of your other guises.
Simpson's Paradox shows how R can distort the reality, especially marked when the cases are low and small pockets of infection make the R number jump - as pointed out by Dr Jenny Harries in her appearance at the Downing St press conference on Monday when she advised that the R number can mislead at this stage of the pandemic.

https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-...dont-tell-you/
This might help you.

Mike T has already pointed out the flaw in your argument. And explained why 😊

[Fellbeast]

Trolling in my opinion is disagreeing without explaining why.

You have suggested I don't understand how R works, but you haven't advised why.
.

I’ve had a look back at my posts and I have explained why every time. You seem to believe the country has herd immunity somehow but every single fact available says you’re wrong