Coronavirus

[Witton Park]

Antibodies were found in almost all (96%) of those who had a previous infection confirmed by a swab test. If T cell immune response was important without B cell help - antibodies - I would have expected that % to be rather lower. It is important to differentiate between immunity - implying resistance to infection - and immune response, where infection may still occur but may be milder/asymptomatic.

A Royal College of Physicians survey showed that 25% of doctors who replied had tested positive, despite most having had face to face contact with many cases. So, either PPE works, or test results are falsely low - probably a bit of both. But rising cases in many countries suggests that documented herd immunity has yet to be reached anywhere, apart from perhaps some boroughs in New York.

A Swedish immunologist has been quoted as saying that opening schools would help achieve herd immunity, and that opening schools would be safe - both cannot be right. Sweden has had 3 to 7 times the deaths of its neighbours per head of population.

Mike I'd be interested in where you get the 96% from. Have you a link?

I just smell a rat that's all. Because in the early days of the virus, almost all tests were hospital admissions ie the very ill.
Those self diagnosing with mild symptoms stayed at home and didn't have a test.

If this 96% comes from this group of hospital admitted infections, they are the ones that would have most likely developed the anti-bodies.

Likewise I would expect the asymptomatic would be less likely to develop anti-bodies and the state hasn't got a clue who or how many asymptomatic ex Covid cases there are out there.

For example, I can well imagine if you did such an exercise on the Blackburn Spike cases, they would be unlikely to have developed anti-bodies.

[Fellbeast]

Why do you keep poo pooing scientific studies witton and refer back to your own non-scientific hunches instead? I’d say that a likely 3.4 million people infected and a 0.9% fatality rate on the back of that seems quite a realistic idea of where we’re at

[Stagger]

The problem appears to be that different medical institutions all have conflicting figures.

No-one knows what the truth is.

Everyone starts to make their own assumptions from the evidence they choose to believe.

[Muddy Retriever]

Why do you keep poo pooing scientific studies witton and refer back to your own non-scientific hunches instead? I’d say that a likely 3.4 million people infected and a 0.9% fatality rate on the back of that seems quite a realistic idea of where we’re at

It depends which scientific study you take. The Imperial report ignores the T-cell factor which other studies have said is important. This one for instance:

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid...sts-have-shown

[Muddy Retriever]

Because we did so little testing, especially in the key early months, ironically our identified case to fatality ratio is the worst in the world - see here -> https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Not quite the worst now. About 5,300 deaths have been removed from the UK figure as a result of the PHE review finally having been completed. I suspect a number of countries are fiddling their figures. Spain for example changed its methodology in May. They now only count deaths that actually happened and were registered on the previous day. Since many deaths are registered in the days (sometimes weeks) after, this in clearly under reporting their Covid death count.

[Fellbeast]

Not quite the worst now. About 5,300 deaths have been removed from the UK figure as a result of the PHE review finally having been completed. I suspect a number of countries are fiddling their figures. Spain for example changed its methodology in May. They now only count deaths that actually happened and were registered on the previous day. Since many deaths are registered in the days (sometimes weeks) after, this in clearly under reporting their Covid death count.

Yeah agreed. We’re definitely not now the worst but are probably still in the top five or there abouts

[Fellbeast]

It depends which scientific study you take. The Imperial report ignores the T-cell factor which other studies have said is important. This one for instance:

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid...sts-have-shown

I for one really hope the T cell resistance is a big thing but, whilst we don’t know this yet and have no way yet of finding out, it’s not something that a best practise can be based on. The one good thing nowadays is that hospital cases and deaths are still well down which maybe gives some hope that perhaps the covid strain is weakening a bit.

All the same I still think the way we are doing things now (ignoring the shit show earlier in the year obviously) is the best way to proceed. Social distancing, masks on in shops, gradually open things up, work from home if you can and apply local lockdowns (or international ones) to fire fight. Oh and fining illegal rave and gathering organisers too

[Witton Park]

Not quite the worst now. About 5,300 deaths have been removed from the UK figure as a result of the PHE review finally having been completed. I suspect a number of countries are fiddling their figures. Spain for example changed its methodology in May. They now only count deaths that actually happened and were registered on the previous day. Since many deaths are registered in the days (sometimes weeks) after, this in clearly under reporting their Covid death count.

wasn't that PHE revision as a result of a scientific study that we discussed on here many weeks ago and some were poo pooing?


By the way, it's hard to even poo poo or support an academic study, unless you can actually have access to it, which is what I asked for.

[Witton Park]

Interesting on the Northampton plant. They were all wearing full PPE including masks.

[Fellbeast]

Interesting on the Northampton plant. They were all wearing full PPE including masks.

Perhaps not in the canteen or as they left though 🤔